Percentage play

[djkx1]

I was wondering how people decide whether to take on a tough shot. If you typically make a certain shot 90% of the time in practice, would you pull the trigger on said shot if something was on the line? At what point do you decide that it is too high risk, and opt for a safety instead? Assuming there isnt any obvious two-way shot.

 

[jhendri2]

I was wondering how people decide whether to take on a tough shot. If you typically make a certain shot 90% of the time in practice, would you pull the trigger on said shot if something was on the line? At what point do you decide that it is too high risk, and opt for a safety instead? Assuming there isnt any obvious two-way shot.

What game?

Jim

 

[VIProfessor]

I was wondering how people decide whether to take on a tough shot. If you typically make a certain shot 90% of the time in practice, would you pull the trigger on said shot if something was on the line? At what point do you decide that it is too high risk, and opt for a safety instead? Assuming there isnt any obvious two-way shot.

Well naturally, I just KNOW that I"m a 100% favorite to make any shot I shoot at.

Seriously though, I don't look at it simply as the chances of making the shot, and as such, there's no set cutoff point. What I look at are the chances of running out or to a good safety from where I'm at, versus the chances of playing a safety that will allow me to maintain control of the table. When in doubt, however, remember this rule of thumb: If you're confronted with a choice between a difficult shot and a difficult safety, take the difficult shot and at least give yourself a chance to win!

 

[djkx1]

What game?

Jim

I'll say 9-ball. Although I would apply the question to any game that would likely be lost if you sell out on a shot.

 

[Hal]

You must also account for the availability of an easy safety. If your like 50/50 to make a shot but you have a 85% opportunity to "lock him up" with a tight safety, I say you play the safety. If all goes well, you'll receive ball in hand. The 3ball WILL go in the corner, but look at the 4 5 and 6. They're tough. Play a safety and possibly win with a 3/9 combo when you get ball in hand.

 

[jhendri2]

I'll say 9-ball. Although I would apply the question to any game that would likely be lost if you sell out on a shot.

9 ball huh? A few more questions then

1. What ball am I on?
2. Any clusters on the table?
3. What's the score of the race?

Jim

 

[djkx1]

Well naturally, I just KNOW that I"m a 100% favorite to make any shot I shoot at.

Seriously though, I don't look at it simply as the chances of making the shot, and as such, there's no set cutoff point. What I look at are the chances of running out or to a good safety from where I'm at, versus the chances of playing a safety that will allow me to maintain control of the table. When in doubt, however, remember this rule of thumb: If you're confronted with a choice between a difficult shot and a difficult safety, take the difficult shot and at least give yourself a chance to win!

Sound advice. Thank you

 

[djkx1]

9 ball huh? A few more questions then

1. What ball am I on?
2. Any clusters on the table?
3. What's the score of the race?

Jim

I know there are many variables, to many in fact for my question to be simple. The main point though was to ask whether there is a level of confidence one must have in a shot before you decide to take it. If so, what level would it be? I know I'm not 100% sure before every shot, nor do I shoot if it feels like a 10% shot. For me it is somewhere in between. Just curious what others think.

 

[Snapshot9]

I agree

You must also account for the availability of an easy safety. If your like 50/50 to make a shot but you have a 85% opportunity to "lock him up" with a tight safety, I say you play the safety. If all goes well, you'll receive ball in hand.

I agree with Hal 100%. Even the best players have a larger degree of error if they are kicking at a shot, especially more than 1 rail. That optimizes your chances of getting back to the table, and sometimes with BIH or having them ending up selling out to you. Ever watch 2 pros or real real good players playing each other, and there offense is pretty equal. The winner is usually the one that goes to defense first, which enables him to get a break for turning his offense back on. Knowing when to do this is absolutely instrumental for winning matches. (of course, I do have to make an exception for Efren, for he is The Magician).

Something that makes your heart skip a beat though, is doing a lockup safety, and the person not only hits the ball, but safeties you back. Then you have to start again.

 

[jhendri2]

I know there are many variables, to many in fact for my question to be simple. The main point though was to ask whether there is a level of confidence one must have in a shot before you decide to take it. If so, what level would it be? I know I'm not 100% sure before every shot, nor do I shoot if it feels like a 10% shot. For me it is somewhere in between. Just curious what others think.

I wasn't being sarcastic, I wanted to answer your question. If I'm playing 9 ball and I'm on the 8 with a 90% shot, I shoot it. If I'm on the 1 and there's a cluster, I play safe unless there's a key ball to break the cluster. If it's hill-hill I play safe even if there's a key ball to break the cluster, so I can cinch the win.

If I'm playing straight pool, no way I shoot a 90% shot, that could cost too many points if I miss.

Specifics make a difference in the decision.

Jim

 

[djkx1]

Hal and Snapshot,
I agree and think safeties are often neglected amongst lower level players, myself included.

Jim,
I know variables effect the decisions. Thank you for offering some different options.

 

[CaptainJR]

Like a lot of the responses above say, it just isn't that simple to decide.

However, if your looking for a starting point, there is a guide statement that I've been taught and read several times.

If the shot and the safety are equally difficult, take the shot.

What I'm seeing here is that you might be looking at it the wrong way. You seem to be looking at it like how good a chance you have of making the shot rather than comparing it to how tough the alternatives are.

 

[djkx1]

Like a lot of the responses above say, it just isn't that simple to decide.

However, if your looking for a starting point, there is a guide statement that I've been taught and read several times.

If the shot and the safety are equally difficult, take the shot.

What I'm seeing here is that you might be looking at it the wrong way. You seem to be looking at it like how good a chance you have of making the shot rather than comparing it to how tough the alternatives are.

Just doing my part to get us back on track, and talking about pool.
I do value the opinions of others especially those who have more experience than I do. I have many years under my belt as well, but always looking to learn from others, rather than solely through trial and error.

 

[hustlefinger]

At what point do you decide that it is too high risk, and opt for a safety instead?

That’s a question you must keep asking yourself, isn’t it, and it’s not too easy. That’s what makes pool great IMO. If the 90% shot you’re talking about leads to a win then I’m pulling the trigger, without any second thought.

Rick

 

[Billy_Bob]

I once went and watched the pros play 9-ball (in person). I saw a lot of stuff I don't see on TV.

I never in my life saw so many safeties played! It seemed like if they did not have a 100% shot and a runout, they would play a safety. It almost seemed like they played more safeties than made shots!

And since visiting that tournament, I always keep this in mind. The local [not so good] players tend to look down on safeties, but I stick with it. Safeties win games.

Last night I must have played about 6 safeties in a row (8-ball). I did not have a runout and I did not have a good shot. However, there were easy safeties to play. So I stuck to my guns and kept playing safety after safety. I won the game. Had I attempted to make shots (like I would have years ago), I know I would have lost. But I "held out" until conditions were to my liking and I could runout. Then did so.

 

[Snapshot9]

Now,

I once went and watched the pros play 9-ball (in person). I saw a lot of stuff I don't see on TV.

I never in my life saw so many safeties played! It seemed like if they did not have a 100% shot and a runout, they would play a safety. It almost seemed like they played more safeties than made shots!

And since visiting that tournament, I always keep this in mind. The local [not so good] players tend to look down on safeties, but I stick with it. Safeties win games.

Last night I must have played about 6 safeties in a row (8-ball). I did not have a runout and I did not have a good shot. However, there were easy safeties to play. So I stuck to my guns and kept playing safety after safety. I won the game. Had I attempted to make shots (like I would have years ago), I know I would have lost. But I "held out" until conditions were to my liking and I could runout. Then did so.

That is smart Pool!!! As they say, Having Patience is a virtue.

I once played a guy in Vegas (Valley), and we were the anchors, and the match would be decided on which one won the game. It was a hard fought battle as we played 18 safeties in a row, and I won when his shot let the cue ball roll a 1/4" too far. I was both elated and exhausted after that.

One other point I would bring up, is many times when playing in handicap tournaments, and you have to win, say 8-4, playing safeties should not be forgotten then because many times those lower handicaps can get lucky, or the rolls, and before you know it you have to win 5 or 6 games in a row to win the match. So, playing safeties at the right time can allow you to get the jump on smaller handicaps, and therefore allow you to control the flow of the match better.

 

[Hal]

I played pool for about 10 years and probably played safe about 5% of what I should have. Now I'm older and can see the importance of it. I play safe now even when playing my kids (They really hate it too) or when I'm just knocking balls around with someone.

 

[desert1pocket]

The chances of making or missing the shot are only a small part of the whole picture. It is all about risk vs reward. A 90% shot that wins the game is different than a 90% shot that leaves yourself a tough out, and a 90% shot that almost surely loses the game if you miss, is very different from a 90% shot that leaves your opponent safe if you miss. You should also figure in the whole senario outside of that particular game. How much is the bet? Are you betting by the game or by the set? Who is ahead and by how much? If the reward is high enough, I might take high risk shots early on against someone who is suceptible to come appart mentally. As a general rule for myself, If I don't see an out that I should be able to run, I will play safe unless there is a good 2 way shot available. I am always surprised at how often people overlook that fact that it is often possible to go for a shot, play shape, and play an easy safety all at the same time.

 

[ez2h8]

I answer the original question, it depends what is on the line whether I will take the high risk shot. If it's alot of money which for me could be 20.00 some days. I would pull up and look for another shot. If it's during a tournament or for drinks, and it's a shot I know I can make but the risk is high, I will take the shot. Better to say I tried in that instance then not and probably still have to buy the beer. Been there, done that.

As for the safeties, in particular to 9 ball. I played with a guy in Atlanta and even though he could run out with the best of them, he opted to always play the 3 foul rule on me. He loved to practice safe's (which was the opposite of my fast playing style) and I was a hell of a kicker/banker so the challenge was not winning, but who played the better safes/kicks. We both learned a tremendous amount both ways.
ez

 

[Southpaw]

IMO, if the safety is as hard or harder than the shot, I prefer to take the shot. If Im gonna lose, I want to go down swinging and not ducking.

Southpaw