Players refusing to lag the ball.

In local weekly tournaments in my area, flipping is standard. I don’t mind lagging in principle but I do get annoyed when lower level players insist on lagging like this little local tournament is the US Open.

As to the coin issue, I keep a container in my case with score markers and pennies. I therefore always have a coin to flip and I will donate a penny to players who don’t have a coin.
 
most throw paper or little less often rock on their first throw. so one throw.
so throw paper and free roll.
and carry good poker hand 100 dollar bills you don't spend. around places where you can get a game of it.
by flashing around a stack of them.

dont play for smaller amounts as they can then get bills from a cash register or someone else.
 
skor said:
I don’t think that at amateur levels, it makes any difference who breaks first.
Click to expand...
I just ran the numbers for my league in the last 1500 games if the players were within 60 Fargo points of each other, the breaker won 49.4% and the non-breaker won 50.6%. This covered 431 games.
 
bpeacock said:
I just ran the numbers for my league in the last 1500 games if the players were within 60 Fargo points of each other, the breaker won 49.4% and the non-breaker won 50.6%. This covered 431 games.
Click to expand...
The difference (breaker wins vs non-breaker wins) is not statistically significant. It's a coin toss with this sample.
 
Chris said:
The difference (breaker wins vs non-breaker wins) is not statistically significant. It's a coin toss with this sample.
Click to expand...
I did find 3 players at my skill level that lose significantly more if they break... I am not surprised because they are good at making balls but don't play defense so they attempt a run out every time. When their opponent comes to the table, it is wide open.
For instance, one guy wins 57% when he breaks and 75% when his opponent breaks.
 
bpeacock said:
I did find 3 players at my skill level that lose significantly more if they break... I am not surprised because they are good at making balls but don't play defense so they attempt a run out every time. When their opponent comes to the table, it is wide open.
For instance, one guy wins 57% when he breaks and 75% when his opponent breaks.
Click to expand...
It would be interesting to learn how Fargo rating affects the value of having the break. I would expect that value to increase as Fargo rating increases, but I might be surprised.

For someone who doesn't play defense (playing 8-ball, I am assuming), that one guy wins a lot. Growing up playing 8-ball, the first strategy I learned was that it was a whole lot easier to make my balls if my older brother made some/most of his balls before I came to the table. That's one old school hustle I would have never fallen for.
 
Chris said:
The difference (breaker wins vs non-breaker wins) is not statistically significant. It's a coin toss with this sample.
Click to expand...
What we can say is that there is no evidence here that the break is an advantage or disadvantage for these players. It's quite unlikely to be 55-45 in either direction. That's for the group as an average, not for any single player.
 
Chris said:
It would be interesting to learn how Fargo rating affects the value of having the break. I would expect that value to increase as Fargo rating increases, but I might be surprised.

For someone who doesn't play defense (playing 8-ball, I am assuming), that one guy wins a lot. Growing up playing 8-ball, the first strategy I learned was that it was a whole lot easier to make my balls if my older brother made some/most of his balls before I came to the table. That's one old school hustle I would have never fallen for.
Click to expand...
BREAKER WIN % BY FARGO RATING (1,325 games, BCAPL league data)

Fargo Range | Games | Breaker Win % | W-L Record
------------|-------|---------------|------------
100-149 | 8 | 50.0% | 4-4
150-199 | 16 | 25.0% | 4-12
200-249 | 75 | 21.3% | 16-59
250-299 | 41 | 36.6% | 15-26
300-349 | 31 | 48.4% | 15-16
350-399 | 262 | 39.7% | 104-158
400-449 | 221 | 51.6% | 114-107
450-499 | 310 | 58.4% | 181-129
500-549 | 121 | 54.5% | 66-55
550-599 | 142 | 65.5% | 93-49
600-649 | 98 | 91.8% | 90-8
------------|-------|---------------|------------
TOTAL | 1325 | 53.0% | 702-623

Note: This tracks breaker's win % by their own Fargo rating, not
by rating gap. Win % climbs with rating mainly because higher-rated
players win more overall — not necessarily because breaking itself
matters more at higher levels. When restricted to closely-matched
opponents (within 50-60 Fargo points), breaker win % flattens to
~49-51% regardless of rating band.
 
so it is clear in general the break is not an advantage and that is with them breaking hard obviously.

it follows that the weaker player or the better mover should not open the balls in the break and play a safe. for most players.

when playing 9 ball or 6 ball i almost always played some different kind of safe depending on my opponents ability and how he plays with balls tied up.

if gambling, playing someone who never gets out i break them open so the games go faster and i win faster. even if i will win more often with a game with balls tied up.
 
Last edited:
bpeacock said:
BREAKER WIN % BY FARGO RATING (1,325 games, BCAPL league data)

Fargo Range | Games | Breaker Win % | W-L Record
------------|-------|---------------|------------
100-149 | 8 | 50.0% | 4-4
150-199 | 16 | 25.0% | 4-12
200-249 | 75 | 21.3% | 16-59
250-299 | 41 | 36.6% | 15-26
300-349 | 31 | 48.4% | 15-16
350-399 | 262 | 39.7% | 104-158
400-449 | 221 | 51.6% | 114-107
450-499 | 310 | 58.4% | 181-129
500-549 | 121 | 54.5% | 66-55
550-599 | 142 | 65.5% | 93-49
600-649 | 98 | 91.8% | 90-8
------------|-------|---------------|------------
TOTAL | 1325 | 53.0% | 702-623

Note: This tracks breaker's win % by their own Fargo rating, not
by rating gap. Win % climbs with rating mainly because higher-rated
players win more overall — not necessarily because breaking itself
matters more at higher levels. When restricted to closely-matched
opponents (within 50-60 Fargo points), breaker win % flattens to
~49-51% regardless of rating band.
Click to expand...
This is not the complete picture, we need to look at how the same groups perform when the opponent breaks...
 
WIN % BY FARGO RATING: BREAKING vs NOT BREAKING (1,325 games, BCAPL league data)

Fargo Range | Win % (Brk) | Win % (Recv)
------------|-------------|-------------
100-149 | 50.0% | 42.9%
150-199 | 25.0% | 20.8%
200-249 | 21.3% | 27.6%
250-299 | 36.6% | 16.7%
300-349 | 48.4% | 47.1%
350-399 | 39.7% | 38.4%
400-449 | 51.6% | 49.1%
450-499 | 58.4% | 53.3%
500-549 | 54.5% | 58.4%
550-599 | 65.5% | 68.0%
600-649 | 91.8% | 70.8%
------------|-------------|-------------
TOTAL | 53.0% | 47.0%

"Brk" = win % when player broke. "Recv" = win % when opponent broke.
Grouped by the player's own Fargo rating, not by rating gap.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top