Safety Abuse?

[Banks]

On a bar table? Happens all the time. I'm not talking about pros. C players can kick a ball in (lucky) and run out. Top shortstops don't kicking to get lucky. You don't usually like the results when a pro kicks out of your "great" safe. B players or better, I'm not playing safe unless I have to.

Sure, C players can put racks together too, but I'll put my money against it every time. Must be a different kind of player in makebelieveland.

The next time I play a pro, I'll let you know how that goes..

B players or better, you don't play safe unless you "have to"? What's the that mean? Didn't you just say to play offense 99%? Why would you ever play safe more than once or twice a day? After all, you're talking about playing pros, so surely they run all of the racks like you said, so you have to get up there and try to run as many as a pro just to keep up. I like opponents that think that way, it makes it so much easier when they push themselves too hard instead of try to play a winning game.

If you're so good that you're going to run everything out, why would you "have to" safe up? After all, your easily-kicked safe is already going to fail at least 50% and result in a hailstorm of losses via strung racks.

 

[cuesblues]

That's why it's possible to lose without ever missing a shot. Your safety in rack 1 cost you 3 games. This clown is kicking in balls left and right, and you're considering leaving him an easy kick?

Let's just say the odds of him making the ball and/or getting safe is 50%. If you assume 50% on every safety you play, then your odds decrease by half each time you play a successful safe.

I'm going to assume that you will play at least 1 safety per rack.

Since he is a run out player, you can assume he will shoot at low percentage shots. So let's assume that of the balls he misses, there is a 50% chance that he leaves you a shot. The other 50%, you'll be playing safe (because you're a safety player).

So here's what I see: 1 out of 4 times that he misses, he will win (because 50% you're playing safe, and he makes something happen 50% of kicks). 1 out of 4 times that you get the first shot, he will win (because you will play safe and he has a 50% chance of making it or getting safe; you have a 50% chance of getting safe off his lucky safe). So now, he's winning 2 out of 4 games and you haven't missed a ball yet. Your misses will tip the scale in his favor, the more you miss, the better his odds.

I agree with your math when talking about bar box league play.
However, what happens to me sometimes, is that I go for the tougher more aggressive shot attempting to run out,
get all the breakouts, make all the shots, but get just enough out of line that I **** myself on the 8.
Then I feel like a moron for not playing safe, and I feel like I let my team down.
I typically win playing the safe, but when you're playing a great player, the bar box safeties can backfire, unless you really lock them up.

 

[Drew]

Sure, C players can put racks together too, but I'll put my money against it every time. Must be a different kind of player in makebelieveland.

The next time I play a pro, I'll let you know how that goes..

B players or better, you don't play safe unless you "have to"? What's the that mean? Didn't you just say to play offense 99%? Why would you ever play safe more than once or twice a day? After all, you're talking about playing pros, so surely they run all of the racks like you said, so you have to get up there and try to run as many as a pro just to keep up. I like opponents that think that way, it makes it so much easier when they push themselves too hard instead of try to play a winning game.

If you're so good that you're going to run everything out, why would you "have to" safe up? After all, your easily-kicked safe is already going to fail at least 50% and result in a hailstorm of losses via strung racks.

When did I say I play offense 99% of the time? Maybe 90% playing 9ball or 10ball, 80% playing 8ball, and 20% playing 1p.

This whole thread is about excessive safety play. To me, that means you CAN get out, but you're scared to shoot, and I love playing guys who do that...Once I see it, you're beat. When I'm oozing with confidence and I sense fear, I start playing a ball or two better.

And yeah, I can kick and jump fairly accurately (lol especially league play on a bar table)...and I'm not even a good player.

Who wins between the 150 ball runner and the 14-safe guy?

 

[Drew]

I agree with your math when talking about bar box league play.
However, what happens to me sometimes, is that I go for the tougher more aggressive shot attempting to run out,
get all the breakouts, make all the shots, but get just enough out of line that I **** myself on the 8.
Then I feel like a moron for not playing safe, and I feel like I let my team down.
I typically win playing the safe, but when you're playing a great player, the bar box safeties can backfire, unless you really lock them up.

We all do that. But I don't think it's a failure of shot selection as much as losing concentration or just plain missing the out. If you killed your shape at the end of the rack, you probably would have killed your shape playing a safe...the difference is you're still at the table.

 

[Banks]

When did I say I play offense 99% of the time? Maybe 90% playing 9ball or 10ball, 80% playing 8ball, and 20% playing 1p.

This whole thread is about excessive safety play. To me, that means you CAN get out, but you're scared to shoot, and I love playing guys who do that...Once I see it, you're beat. When I'm oozing with confidence and I sense fear, I start playing a ball or two better.

And yeah, I can kick and jump fairly accurately (lol especially league play on a bar table)...and I'm not even a good player.

Who wins between the 150 ball runner and the 14-safe guy?

Excessive safety play can hurt your game, but we got into a discussion about safeties in general. Sometimes it can be helpful to simply lock your opponent down and ruin their mental state, too.

I tend to play more lock-up-runout against better players(I play up better than down). Lesser players I'll simply outshoot or play a more relaxed style with mixed safeties. I'd like to see a short video of you(or anyone B - Master) kicking in even 50% or 25% of randomly placed shots(heck, show me you can do it on a "league play bar table", since they're so easy). Toss in traffic, locked safeties and two-rails and that percentage is going to drop. Stick a ball in the jaws with an easy 1-railer and many people will make it.. this goes back to knowing how to play a good safety game. An APA 3 hooking another 3 is much different than a strong player's safety game.

Who says the 14-safe guy couldn't run 150? Maybe he can run 100 and plays lockup safes.. so the only question would be, who gets the break?

 

[Grilled Cheese]

A safety is either needed, or it is not.



There's no middle ground. Middle ground means indecisiveness likely due to the offensive option being a close to or a wash with the defensive option in success chance or difficulty level.


When they are close, always go offense. Thus, the safety is rarely if ever a question.

 

[StuartK35]

that's how you win matches...

Personally speaking I don't really care what my APA rank is. I play to win my match. If it takes 100 innings and 30 defensive shots so be it.

I've had 40 safeties or more in matches....safety play will win you matches, period. I'm with you on the handicap....I was a 7, somehow went to a 6 in 8 ball..had a bad session, whatever. I play to win and it doesn't matter to me if it's in 6 innings or 66 if that's what it takes. Our three played an awesome safety in his match last night that ended up winning him the match! It was a safety that he had seen me play. He executed it perfectly and that's why he won....Great work on your part. You are seeing the game as you should. It sounds like your mind is working to me!

 

[LoupSeul]

Sometimes it can be helpful to simply lock your opponent down and ruin their mental state, too.

Sorry, but in my mind that sounds like dirty pool.

I remember a great player once told me, pool is different then any other sport, if you're good enough your opponent will never get the chance to even play.

I think the bottom line is that safeties are an extremely important aspect of the game, but if you are using them as either a crutch or a way to frustrate your opponent you are only hurting yourself in the long term.

just my two cents'


p.s.

Me, or anyone who has played 3 cushion, or knows the diamonds is going to hit that ball 90% of the time
so you better make it a dead nuts safe

 

[Banks]

Sorry, but in my mind that sounds like dirty pool.

Me, or anyone who has played 3 cushion is going to hit that ball
so you better make it a dead nuts safe

There's no question there, it's dirty.. but can be effective, especially to get somebody out of a good game. :angel2:

The point of many a safe is to accomplish something and guarantee you another shot at the table. That's the mistake that many low-rated players make, bunting a ball into a cluster or away from a hole, only to create themselves another problem to deal with when they get backbanghead. I'm comfortable with my opponent getting a good hit in most cases, I'd just put money against the 'make'.. my plan is to simply set up the out, deal with a problem and get a high percentage chance at returning to the table or possibly a BiH. I rarely use a jump cue, so I kick at a lot of things myself and have gotten pretty good at making hits. I'd guess most players also haven't played 3C.

 

[LoupSeul]

my plan is to simply set up the out, deal with a problem and get a high percentage chance at returning to the table or possibly a BiH

Smart plan, can't argue with that reasoning !

 

[Grilled Cheese]

Sorry, but in my mind that sounds like dirty pool.

I remember a great player once told me, pool is different then any other sport, if you're good enough your opponent will never get the chance to even play.

I think the bottom line is that safeties are an extremely important aspect of the game, but if you are using them as either a crutch or a way to frustrate your opponent you are only hurting yourself in the long term.

just my two cents'


p.s.

Me, or anyone who has played 3 cushion, or knows the diamonds is going to hit that ball 90% of the time
so you better make it a dead nuts safe

As much as I hate to say it, it's part of the game. One way or another, someone's will to win is crushed. Rarely do both people have the will and desire to win (belief in themselves) all the way to the very end.

Often it just happens as a result of good play by one player. A player makes some great shots, a tough out, or runs a couple racks and the other guy sinks mentally.

Doing it with a safety is intentional, a little sleazy, but if a player falls for it or loses their mental game - they deserve to lose. They possess a bad attitude. My attitude is to be absolutely happy just to be at the table, even if in a lock safety situation. Why? BECAUSE I CAN'T WIN FROM THE CHAIR. I often play people who, if they're at the table - it means I've lost. If I get to get on the table, it is a privilege that I probably did not earn, so make the best of it. Look, I'm no fool - the odds are low. But if you can take your tip and hit the CB because it's you who is at the table, anything can happen. And low percentage is better than no percentage (being in the chair).


Because players don't have that attitude, and feel entitled to having their inning at the table begin with a super easy road map layout for a run, they can get down if they are hooked. Well, that is a game weakness of the mental sort and they deserve to lose.



The downside to doing this is becoming dependent on it. It only works against weaker players anyway. As stronger players generally also have stronger mental games and attitudes. Eventually, that safety abuser or person looking to break the opponent's will, will run into a player where these kinds of tactics don't phase them one bit. In fact, it might encourage the other player to play stronger. I've seen it backfire, the opponent makes a great kick, gets super confident and gets in the zone or dead-stroke then proceeds to clobber the guy who played safe.


That is why I said in my earlier posts in this thread, it's generally not a good idea to EVER turn the table over. Which is why better players tend to opt more for offensive options, than risk the unknown of the safe by putting matters into their opponent's hands.


Now, even if they don't kick it in or hit it, does it matter? If that sort of thing isn't rattling your opponent's psyche, why bother with it? Just wasting time, and opening yourself up to risk.


Overall, the safety for the purpose of annoyance is generally a waste of time. But it does work well on banger and bar league type players. Then again, they play poorly already - is it necessary to break their will to win, in order to win?