Randomly throw 4 stripes and an 8-ball onto a table. Ask the top 100 pros to run out and watch the sequence. How many run the balls the same way? 50%? 90%? I often wonder at what point is sequence: precision vs. art vs. statistical accuracy. This often separates the "A"s from the super Pros.
Sequences - What Do You Think?
- Thread starter BarTableMan
- Start date
That is a very interesting thing. I think that TAR should do this test in every match to see how each player picks the run. Do not let the second player watch the first though.
I would say with no obstacles and not counting things like spin amounts and force of hit and exact angles picked, at least half would play the same ball in the same pocket with the same angle to the next one.
I would say with no obstacles and not counting things like spin amounts and force of hit and exact angles picked, at least half would play the same ball in the same pocket with the same angle to the next one.
If you have fixed OBs locations, then your question would make sense, but random obs then you are at the mercy of where these balls land, they could cluster, or two near a rail..etc. Plus you must add in your question, "shoot these balls for $100 each run from his/her own money" now we are talking.
I think most of us that consider themselves decent players would start the run out the same way. However, we will tend to miss shape at some point to make you change the next shot. I always look the table over everytime I make a shot to make sure my pattern hasn't changed by me moving a ball or my shape is just a hair off to keep me from continuing my pattern.---Smitty
What percentage follow the same path depends on the layout. Some are so obvious they practically run themselves and you wouldn't be surprised 90/100 all chose the same order.
Others have no obvious pattern that jumps out and the results might be closer to 50%.
In the top layout (oops, I used solids) I bet pretty much everyone on earth does 2,1,4,5.
In the bottom layout... who knows. Nothing really connects naturally to anything.
There's no ball I absolutely love to shoot to get on the 8. Maybe the 1.
2,4,5,1? I bet I can get someone to disagree with me.
I think all pros understand certain principles that help reduce risk, increase margin for error, and 'dogproof' the run. Stuff like...
- if you can open with a stop shot, and be perfect on the next ball,
you basically are removing 1 ball from the table for free. It's like you only have 3 stripes instead of 4.
- look for shots where you can gently roll forward for shape. Forget shots that require specific amounts of draw.
- don't go up and down the entire table if you can avoid it.
- set up to use a rail so you can easily alter the cue ball's line if it looks like plain top or center ball won't be perfect.
Others have no obvious pattern that jumps out and the results might be closer to 50%.
In the top layout (oops, I used solids) I bet pretty much everyone on earth does 2,1,4,5.
In the bottom layout... who knows. Nothing really connects naturally to anything.
There's no ball I absolutely love to shoot to get on the 8. Maybe the 1.
2,4,5,1? I bet I can get someone to disagree with me.
I think all pros understand certain principles that help reduce risk, increase margin for error, and 'dogproof' the run. Stuff like...
- if you can open with a stop shot, and be perfect on the next ball,
you basically are removing 1 ball from the table for free. It's like you only have 3 stripes instead of 4.
- look for shots where you can gently roll forward for shape. Forget shots that require specific amounts of draw.
- don't go up and down the entire table if you can avoid it.
- set up to use a rail so you can easily alter the cue ball's line if it looks like plain top or center ball won't be perfect.
What percentage follow the same path depends on the layout. Some are so obvious they practically run themselves and you wouldn't be surprised 90/100 all chose the same order.
Others have no obvious pattern that jumps out and the results might be closer to 50%.
In the top layout (oops, I used solids) I bet pretty much everyone on earth does 2,1,4,5.
In the bottom layout... who knows. Nothing really connects naturally to anything.
There's no ball I absolutely love to shoot to get on the 8. Maybe the 1.
2,4,5,1? I bet I can get someone to disagree with me.
I think all pros understand certain principles that help reduce risk, increase margin for error, and 'dogproof' the run. Stuff like...
- if you can open with a stop shot, and be perfect on the next ball,
you basically are removing 1 ball from the table for free. It's like you only have 3 stripes instead of 4.
- look for shots where you can gently roll forward for shape. Forget shots that require specific amounts of draw.
- don't go up and down the entire table if you can avoid it.
- set up to use a rail so you can easily alter the cue ball's line if it looks like plain top or center ball won't be perfect.
I would play 1, 5, 2, 4 in the second layout. Make the 1 and drift over for 5 in the side. Follow to play 2 in the corner. Follow for the four in corner opposite of where 8 is. Bring cue ball off bottom rail and play 8 in bottom corner.
I know why you would play the layout the way you said. I just prefer my last ball before the 8 to be closer to the 8. In general I think any players who play well choose the same patterns unless they play to different strengths in their game. I may prefer patterns that use follow whereas someone else prefers patterns using draw. I don't think it matters too much as long as you can get out consistently using the pattern you choose.
This is like discussing writing. You can have two great writers write a paragraph about the exact same thing and it doesn't have to be identical. Depending on a given layout, there can be several correct plans. Sometimes there's only one correct plan. I think with the provided layouts, everyone is going to have their preferred sequences but most good players will agree with other sequences that appear to minimize risk.
I'll say this much, I've had layouts in 8ball and 14.1 where I knew there was nothing I could do wrong. My sequences were decided by routes that would require the least amount of walking. It's when there's the possibility of running into trouble and showing that you've acknowledged that fact, that's the difference.
I'll say this much, I've had layouts in 8ball and 14.1 where I knew there was nothing I could do wrong. My sequences were decided by routes that would require the least amount of walking. It's when there's the possibility of running into trouble and showing that you've acknowledged that fact, that's the difference.
I think this idea would be absolutely great to see on the TAR match, during the podcast maybe, or even before they start. Just keep one player outside for a bit while the first one runs out, and then have the second one run out the same layout and see what differences there are.
What percentage follow the same path depends on the layout. Some are so obvious they practically run themselves and you wouldn't be surprised 90/100 all chose the same order.
Others have no obvious pattern that jumps out and the results might be closer to 50%.
In the top layout (oops, I used solids) I bet pretty much everyone on earth does 2,1,4,5.
In the bottom layout... who knows. Nothing really connects naturally to anything.
There's no ball I absolutely love to shoot to get on the 8. Maybe the 1.
2,4,5,1? I bet I can get someone to disagree with me.
I think all pros understand certain principles that help reduce risk, increase margin for error, and 'dogproof' the run. Stuff like...
- if you can open with a stop shot, and be perfect on the next ball,
you basically are removing 1 ball from the table for free. It's like you only have 3 stripes instead of 4.
- look for shots where you can gently roll forward for shape. Forget shots that require specific amounts of draw.
- don't go up and down the entire table if you can avoid it.
- set up to use a rail so you can easily alter the cue ball's line if it looks like plain top or center ball won't be perfect.
For the first shot, 1, 4, 2, 5 isn't bad either. In fact, I really like how the 2 gives me natural position on the 5 so I'd be inclined to leave those two last. I could see playing it this way or your way.
For the second, I don't like balls that sit in the middle of the table. Leaving them last is a great way to get into trouble so with BIH, I'd probably go with the same sequence as you (work right to left) but I might consider taking the two middle balls out and leaving the 1 and 4 for last. I just know I can easily get position from one to the other without incident.
Absolutely not. The 5 ball is the worst ball for your key shot and will lose you more times than you will ever realize.
If you're an A player, you'll get away with it. If you're not an A player, it will kill you.
That's why the OP's question is a good one.
Freddie <~~~ 8-ball runout 101
Ditto. This isn't a hanger out, but if you get rid of the balls in the center of the table, then the two at the ends are pretty negotiable without having to worry about getting the perfect angle.
Freddie
I wouldn't say "the worst". It's within a diamond of the side pocket which isn't that bad. If it were more toward center and you had to actually position for it, I'd be more inclined to agree with you. The truth is, the average A player could run these balls out in any sequence. In fact, I'd venture to say you could call out any order and I'm a 99.9% favorite to run them out.
I don't disagree with anything you said here Jude. However, it certainly isn't the best key ball. And normally, the ball to the side pocket is the devil and an awful tease for non-A players who must rely on proper sequence to get out consistently.
You almost can't go wrong with the 4-ball as the key ball, but you can go wrong from a whole lot of angles on the 5-ball. And if there were actually the other set of balls on the table, forget it. Then the 5-ball becomes the worst.
That's one reason 8-ball and 14.1 are very different in pattern play.
Freddie
Yeah, with 4 balls to shoot in, any order, to get any decent shot on the 8, with no obstacles, the situation is too easy. There will be many easy solutions, and which one is marginally easier than the next is rather irrelevant for an excellent player; they might all be automatic barring earthquakes.
Now, change the game to 14.1 where you need to ensure yourself not only a shot on the break ball, but a good break shot on the break ball, and you've made it a little tougher and a little clearer which way is the right way and the wrong way to do it.
Or better yet, use your same 4 stripes and the 8, but put all 7 solids on the table, too. The obstacles presented by the solids will make it rather clear to experienced and skilled players that one way of doing things might be a lot less risky than another.
-Andrew
Well, determining the 5's value as a key-ball has a lot to do with the ball you're using to position for it. In this layout, the 2-ball sets-up beautifully for the 5 so you can definitely go that way.
I hear what you're saying about this route in general. This can be a sensitive keyball, especially if it's more than a diamond away from the side. That's why I suggest using the 2 to get on the 5 if you want to leave the 5 last.
Yeah, for the first diagram I think I can find only one sequence I really don't like. Whatever you do, don't start with the 4 and position for the 2. Even then, I think I can get out this way far more often than not.
As to your 14.1 suggestions, I'd have to see them in diagram to comment. I think you're right though. If we're going to discuss anything truly definitive, we have to work with a somewhat difficult layout.
I'll add that how far away that ball can be from the side before abandoning it can be influenced by the table size (7' table vs 9' table) and the size of the side pocket.
If it's cavernous, then the 5-ball for the key ball is fine and the 2-ball is perfect to lead into the 5-ball. If the side pocket is teeny tiny like many Valley barboxes, IMO the 5-ball is a false friend.
This is a great test in analyzing an opponent's tactical thinking and shooting skills.
Not at all surprised there's disagreement even on the first example.
I tried to come up with an example that screamed "no brainer" but I don't think I succeeded.
4 is a great key ball for the 8, any angle into the head rail sends the cue ball along the shotline.
So in the first diagram I couldn't criticise 2 (stop), 5 in the side (1 rail), 1,4.
The reason I considered my route a no brainer is because you can start with 2 stop shots.
2 (stop), 1 (stop), and then unless you're a total spaz you can work with that angle to get
straightish on the 5 in the side. Either angle on the 5 is fine as long as it's not severe.
Dead straight is fine too.
I probably should have set up something that could be done with all stop shots,
or with balls hanging, something less debatable. Maybe anything over 2 balls is debatable.
In the second route, I agree with the thought that balls near the center suck.
They're as far as they can be from pretty much all pockets.
At the same time I hate going across the whole table.
Even with a natural angle on the 4, I feel like I can fall straight,
fall on the head rail, get stuck on the side rail, etc.
Something else I've noticed... if someone subconsciously doesn't like a pattern, then shoot it anyway,
it just always seems to go wrong. Doesn't matter how bulletproof it looks on paper.
So it's hard to get a concensus because even the easy ones go awry and people say
"see, my way was better".
I tried to come up with an example that screamed "no brainer" but I don't think I succeeded.
4 is a great key ball for the 8, any angle into the head rail sends the cue ball along the shotline.
So in the first diagram I couldn't criticise 2 (stop), 5 in the side (1 rail), 1,4.
The reason I considered my route a no brainer is because you can start with 2 stop shots.
2 (stop), 1 (stop), and then unless you're a total spaz you can work with that angle to get
straightish on the 5 in the side. Either angle on the 5 is fine as long as it's not severe.
Dead straight is fine too.
I probably should have set up something that could be done with all stop shots,
or with balls hanging, something less debatable. Maybe anything over 2 balls is debatable.
In the second route, I agree with the thought that balls near the center suck.
They're as far as they can be from pretty much all pockets.
At the same time I hate going across the whole table.
Even with a natural angle on the 4, I feel like I can fall straight,
fall on the head rail, get stuck on the side rail, etc.
Something else I've noticed... if someone subconsciously doesn't like a pattern, then shoot it anyway,
it just always seems to go wrong. Doesn't matter how bulletproof it looks on paper.
So it's hard to get a concensus because even the easy ones go awry and people say
"see, my way was better".