If the shot is difficult as the safety is, what do you shoot? They say take the shot if this percentage comes up. I can see this being the point in nineball but in eight ball would this be the saying? Any thoughts
Shot vs. Safety
- Thread starter TheConArtist
- Start date
I think it falls down to where the ball ends up if you miss. If either is a sell out, definatly go for the shot.
If the opponent can run out where you leave the ball from a missed shot or safety but you can continue your run or have an easier safety if you make yours, then always play the shot.
Look at it this way... play 100 games for each the safety and the shot. Lets say you make the shot/safety 80 times per 100.
If you make the shot and then run out then you've instantly won those 80 games... HOWEVER if after playing the safety those 80 times your opponent is able to get a good hit and leave you badly or at worst makes a ball, then you will win LESS than 80 of the games.
So if both are X% to make them, with the shot and runout you will win X% of the games, while with the safety you will win <X%... so the shot is always a better choice(if they leave you in same position and you arent trying to mess with your opponents head).
If the opponent can run out where you leave the ball from a missed shot or safety but you can continue your run or have an easier safety if you make yours, then always play the shot.
Look at it this way... play 100 games for each the safety and the shot. Lets say you make the shot/safety 80 times per 100.
If you make the shot and then run out then you've instantly won those 80 games... HOWEVER if after playing the safety those 80 times your opponent is able to get a good hit and leave you badly or at worst makes a ball, then you will win LESS than 80 of the games.
So if both are X% to make them, with the shot and runout you will win X% of the games, while with the safety you will win <X%... so the shot is always a better choice(if they leave you in same position and you arent trying to mess with your opponents head).
I have come across this once. It was a difficult cross bank into the side, or a really touchy quarter radius position for safety. I ended up taking the shot for the cross bank, as I figured if i did miss, at least I would leave the cue long from my opponents ball. It paid off in the end. I missed the shot left the cue long. The guy I was playing, has a habit of naturally stroking the ball low right. He ended up jarring the shot in the corner and left me the run out. I would say go for the shot, but also aim for a safe, no matter how loose of a safe it is.
A lot depends on the layout, your opponent (if they can't run three balls or if they are run out artists-it matters!), and how you personally feel about each shot.
I have seen more often than not, when it comes to the pros, they will opt. for the shot, and rather go down shooting than playing safe.
I have seen more often than not, when it comes to the pros, they will opt. for the shot, and rather go down shooting than playing safe.
Some people say that if the safety is as tough or tougher than taking the shot, go for the shot. Others say look for a two-way shot. I agree with both.
I like this thread
Most threads on this seem to just go with the conventional wisdom, all things being equal, shoot the shot over the safety. The truth is that all things are never equal. An easy lock-up safety is a no brainer over a tough shot and easy shots are no brainers too but when the decision is tough I go with my "gut". Experience and my subconscious are weighing a dozen things I am not even consciously aware of.
I'll let the conscience brain stew on the problem a bit but sometimes it still seems like a toss-up. Then I consult the subconscious. If I bend down over one shot and it doesn't feel right I'll instantly swap to the other one, no more thinking to do!
Hu
Most threads on this seem to just go with the conventional wisdom, all things being equal, shoot the shot over the safety. The truth is that all things are never equal. An easy lock-up safety is a no brainer over a tough shot and easy shots are no brainers too but when the decision is tough I go with my "gut". Experience and my subconscious are weighing a dozen things I am not even consciously aware of.
I'll let the conscience brain stew on the problem a bit but sometimes it still seems like a toss-up. Then I consult the subconscious. If I bend down over one shot and it doesn't feel right I'll instantly swap to the other one, no more thinking to do!
Hu
I think you have to go with whichever option gives the lowest probability of selling out. Consider on one side the probability that you'll miss the shot and leave him easy. Consider on the other side the probability that you'll mess up the safe and leave him easy. If you can't be sure that you'll make the shot or that you'll execute a good safe, you have to go with the one that you think has less overall likelihood of letting your opponent to the table for a reasonably high chance at getting out.
-Andrew
-Andrew
Andrew Manning said:
If you are on the 9 ball and have a tough shot, and are thinking about a safety vs going for the shot, one thing you certainly don't want to do is leave the 9 ball jarred in the pocket. Usually, if you shoot hard and miss at least the 9 will move around and perhaps leave a tougher shot for your opponent, and not unrarely, the 9 just might go around the table and pot anyway. Not my favorite way to win, but a win's a win.
Flex
TheConArtist said:
if you have a tough shot and an equally tough safety, you should shoot at it and give yourself a chance to win. I don't see how it's different for 8 ball and 9 ball..
Egg McDogit said:
I like that, Thanks.