So not a break and run but after a dry break how often do they run out all 10 balls? What about after a dry break and they have a clear shot at the 1?
Stat guys: How often do the top pros run a FULL TABLE of 10 ball?
- Thread starter longhorns2
- Start date
FYI, you can find the answers to these and related questions on the break stats resource page. If you go to the 10-ball section and click on the "AZB post" links from AtLarge, you can find all sorts of detailed stats (especially on the 2nd post of each thread).
Enjoy,
Dave
Unless I missed it, I actually did not see an answer to the OP's question on how often the opponent runs out after a dry break. I don't think At Large tracked that stat (for shame! Slacker!)
Yeah unless I missed it I'm looking for how often they run out with 10 balls on the table. Not how often they win after a dry break. Also would be interested to know how often they win with 10 balls on the table with ball and hand after a foul on the break
Yes, I track and post that information regularly, in a post labeled "Miscellany from the data" in my stats thread for each event. Here are some excerpts from those threads; I included two events on a 10-footer, two on a 9-footer, and one on a 7-footer.
2017 DCC Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge, played on a 10-foot Diamond table (http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=445218)
- 29% (79 of 275) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 33% (59 of 181)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 69% (11 of 16)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 12% (9 of 78)
2016 DCC Bigfoot 10-Ball Challenge, played on a 10-foot Diamond table (http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=417409)
- 34% (92 of 273) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 33% (54 of 163)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 65% (15 of 23)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 26% (23 of 87)
2016 SBE 10-Ball Pro Players Championship, played on a 9-foot Diamond table (http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=424583)
- 33% (84 of 253) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 35% (45 of 128)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 50% (9 of 18)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 28% (30 of 107)
Accu-Stats 2015 "Make It Happen" 10-Ball Invitational, played on a 9-foot Diamond table (http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=414086)
- 41% (132 of 321) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 43% (105 of 244)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 70% (16 of 23)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 20% (11 of 54)
2016 US Open 10-Ball Championship, played on a 7-foot Diamond table (http://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?t=431599).
- 48% (112 of 232) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:
- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 49% (89 of 183)
- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 79% (15 of 19)
- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 27% (8 of 30)
So if you want to broadly generalize from those stats in the last post, you could say that they ran out in 10-Ball about one-quarter of the time after dry breaks and two-thirds of the time after fouled breaks.
[Note that there would have been fewer than 10 balls on the table after some of the fouled breaks.]
Edit -- As for the run-out percentage when they have a clear shot at the l-ball after a dry break, I could go back to my notes and remove the games when they pushed or played safe rather than tried to pocket a ball, but I do not have that readily available.
[Note that there would have been fewer than 10 balls on the table after some of the fouled breaks.]
Edit -- As for the run-out percentage when they have a clear shot at the l-ball after a dry break, I could go back to my notes and remove the games when they pushed or played safe rather than tried to pocket a ball, but I do not have that readily available.
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I guess you're not a slacker after all!
In all seriousness, thank you for the hard work you do, which provides real data for the rest of us to play with.
thanks for posting that atlarge. yeah, i'd guess the percentage for runs after a break and foul would come down a little if you only counted when there were still 10 balls on the table. i just figure at some point, whether it be 10 balls, 11 balls, 12, etc. that even with ball in hand the percentages will say you're not likely to run out due to traffic, having to pot more balls, etc
If someone can dig up run-out stats for american rotation, that might get you closer to the answer you're looking for since you always start with BIH. I know that I am nowhere close to being a favorite to run out from there, so most games are eventually going to include a missed shot or a tactical decision.
Granted it's only one event, but the 10 foot stats and the stats for the 10 ball SBE event on 9" tables are surprisingly close considering a 10 footer presents quite a bit more challenge. Looks like for even 10 ball the pro players are at 1/3 to almost 1/2 BNR levels. Pretty strong.
Note that the B&R percentages in that post are on successful breaks only, not all breaks.
The standard B&R percentages, based on all breaks, would be as follows for the streamed matches I watched in those 5 10-Ball events:
2017 Bigfoot -- 21% (59 of 275)
2016 Bigfoot -- 20% (54 of 273)
2016 SBE -- 18% (45 of 253)
2015 MIH -- 33% (105 of 321)
2016 US Open -- 38% (89 of 232)
Also, the SBE used a standard wooden triangle rack, whereas the other 4 events used racking templates (which generally improve the stats).
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