The Luck Factor

[mapman72]

So, I'm in a local weekly tournament playing against a top professional last night and we're tied at 3-3 in a race to five. I had just missed a difficult combination and left the following shot:
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The pro steps up and attempts to play a carom shot on the nine but, not wanting to scratch behind the nine, he completely misses it. Then I couldn't believe my eyes as my emotions went from glee to sorrow. The following happened to the eight ball:
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The pro obviously won that game and went on to win the match 5-3. Afterwards, on the long drive home, I began thinking about just how much of a factor luck is in pool. Over the past several weeks, my friends and I have discussed the luck factor in poker and how several lucky hands can lead to victories in large poker tournaments. For instance, Chris Moneymaker is not considered to be a great poker player, but he ran over the field in 2003. When Chris Ferguson (Jesus) won his first world series main event, he hit some incredible longshot of a hand, and most people who remember him winning don't remember who his opponent was that caught that bad beat.

My point is, although poker is different than pool, in major tournament play, how often does luck factor into the equation? For example, have there been many instances at the finals of major championships where one competitor or another has been lucky on a key shot - two railing a ball by accident in the case game or having a ball go in and out of a pocket during a routine run out for the championship. I'm curious to find out people's overall feel for the role luck plays in pool and to hear specific examples where pros have been unlucky in important situations. Personally, I think that there is a 5-10% luck factor associated with top level pool. And I don't know of any specific examples where a player got very, very unlucky in an important situation, but I hope you do.

 

[rackmsuckr]

That's why I think 9 ball should be a call pocket game! I have seen slop happen in finals where they go on to run out.

I also happened to be on the bad end of some luck when I was hill-hill against a guy in an open tournament and elected to take a long tough 8 ball and stop the ball and accept the longer 9 ball shot, instead of trying to draw it and miss.

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Then I 3-rail scratched on the 9.

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%ID0G4%Pk7X5%UD7I2%Vj9X2%WS2D0%XD7F1%Yq8L2%ZT9C7%[\0[6%\r9M2
%eC9a0%f3%g3
)END

Was it bad luck or just not planning for the scratch? I did realize there was a chance to scratch, but thought that I would be compensating with the extreme right english. This was to get in the money, too.

 

[jsp]

Luck is always a factor in pretty much any game you can play. Some games have more luck than others. The luck factor in poker is definitely greater than that in pool, while the luck in pool is greater than that in chess. Within pool, luck is more of a factor in some games than others. If I had to rank the games in which the luck factor is greatest to games where its smallest...it would be 9 ball clearly on top, then 8 ball would be distant second, then straight pool, and finally one pocket (it's no wonder why Efren wins almost all one pocket tournaments he enters).

EDIT: Even if 9 ball would be a call pocket game, it would still be on top of my list, simply because balls are shot in rotation, and that you can easily miss the shot and have your opponent be hooked behind other balls.

 

[BillYards]

Wow! Linda, if you tried to shoot a ball like that, you would never make it in the side! Haha!

I think luck IS a factor and back when I played a more serious game, I got to a point where I started expecting a little luck during games. I actually expected my opponents to get bad rolls and miss, while I was positive I would get the good rolls and luck. Something about that attitude really brought success to me. I expected to win and did.

 

[CaptainJR]

Where are all the "There is no luck in pool" people? I tried to talk about luck in here several months ago and everyone was saying there was no such thing. Oh, that's right, they were playing follow the leader and the leader isn't here anymore. LOL

 

[mnShooter]

So, I'm in a local weekly tournament playing against a top professional last night and we're tied at 3-3 in a race to five. I had just missed a difficult combination and left the following shot:
START(%HD1J0%ID0C3%Pe9H3%f3%g3)END

I had the exact same shot the other day. Did the same thing the pro did. I guess I can now call myself a top pro. Yay

I also think 9ball should be call pocket

 

[DaveK]

Where are all the "There is no luck in pool" people? I tried to talk about luck in here several months ago and everyone was saying there was no such thing. Oh, that's right, they were playing follow the leader and the leader isn't here anymore. LOL

Oh quite whining and telling silly stories, we're here to talk about LUCK.

A lot of what is perceived as luck may be a result of superior shot selection. As an example, that 8-9 carom does line up such that the 8 ball long banks, if you try to hit it that way ... perhaps he did. Many times I've been accused of having 'good luck' when I miss and the cue ball ends up hiding behind another ball. Often these are more difficult pots and I am taking insurance by playing that cue ball shape. Lots of players don't see it that way. Of course many times I miss the pot and my insurance shape is a bit out . I think that most people who believe in this luck thing just have no understanding of statistics / standard deviations / performance cycles.

Dave

 

[LastTwo]

There is definately a luck factor in 9-ball for all levels of play. They say the better you play, the luckier you get, however.

 

[JLW]

Where are all the "There is no luck in pool" people? I tried to talk about luck in here several months ago and everyone was saying there was no such thing. Oh, that's right, they were playing follow the leader and the leader isn't here anymore. LOL

Captain- read some of my recent posts regarding luck and bad rolls. I've said many times before that I don't think it's helpful for players to think about luck. Luck is beyond your control. I think you should concentrate, as a player, on what you can control and not look to outside forces for help. That having been said, I do think that more skilled (and knowledgeable) players tend to get "lucky" more often. Strictly speaking, I don't think it's luck though. IMHO, it's more a knowledge of how to play the percentages on a shot so that you can increase the odds of something good happening.

As far as the leader. I'm pretty sure I know who you're talking about, and I'm pretty sure I wasn't one of his followers. I haven't seen you post a lot lately. I hope everything is going well for you.

 

[mapman72]

A lot of what is perceived as luck may be a result of superior shot selection. As an example, that 8-9 carom does line up such that the 8 ball long banks, if you try to hit it that way ... perhaps he did. Dave

Um, he didn't long bank it, he two rail long banked it then apologized when it dropped. There is no way he attempted to make the 8 in the bottom left corner.

 

[Craig Fales]

I don't know if it's me or what but I can't see the images...just something with START........STOP....
________

 

[Cornerman]

Um, he didn't long bank it, he two rail long banked it then apologized when it dropped. There is no way he attempted to make the 8 in the bottom left corner.

I don't know about anyone else, but in the carom shot you showed, the 8-ball banks either in the right corner (single bank) or the left corner (double bank) quite often.

In similar caroms, I'd be playint the 8-ball bank as well.

Fred

 

[Cornerman]

When Chris Ferguson (Jesus) won his first world series main event, he hit some incredible longshot of a hand, and most people who remember him winning don't remember who his opponent was that caught that bad beat.
.

TJ Cloutier?

 

[davidhop]

It is my experience that even though there is a luck factor in pool, that the majority of the time, the luck will go to the lesser player. Because of this, I think nine ball should not be a call pocket game. This will keep the lower rated players coming back again and again because they actually have a chance, and I feel that this is something that we need desperately.

 

[Andrew Manning]

I don't know if it's me or what but I can't see the images...just something with START........STOP....

They aren't images, that's a text encoding of a pool table. Highlight it from START to END, and hit ctrl+C.

Then go here:
http://endeavor.med.nyu.edu/~wei/pool/pooltable2.html

Then hit the "paste" button and the pool table will change its setup accordingly. You can drag and drop the balls and arrows and hit the copy button, and then use ctrl+V to post your new setup here.

-Andrew

 

[Craig Fales]

They aren't images, that's a text encoding of a pool table. Highlight it from START to END, and hit ctrl+C.

Then go here:
http://endeavor.med.nyu.edu/~wei/pool/pooltable2.html

Then hit the "paste" button and the pool table will change its setup accordingly. You can drag and drop the balls and arrows and hit the copy button, and then use ctrl+V to post your new setup here.

-Andrew

OK...I guess I never seen that before...LOLz...thanx

Isn't working for me when I highlight and hit ctrl c
________

 

[DaveK]

Um, he didn't long bank it, he two rail long banked it then apologized when it dropped. There is no way he attempted to make the 8 in the bottom left corner.

Of course, I mistook my quick glance at the Wei table, sorry for my mistake. My point still stands, (now modified) the twice to the corner is a finite possibility when shooting that 8-9 carom. The odds of that 8 ball bobbling in the second corner, or missing it by 1/8 diamond would be about the same (as potting it). These odds would be greatly changed by hitting a bit softer, such that the 8 ball would not go 2 full table lengths. But there would still be some possibility of the double-long-bank with an overhit error. Errors cause misses, and the results of those missed balls is a bit random or chaotic.

Only people who strike everything exactly right and accurately will have no misses, and it takes a miss to cause someone to call 'luck'. Some missed shots have other good outcomes, and when they happen people call 'luck'. I say that one of the possibilities came to pass, and damned if it didn't give an advantage to my opponent.

Dave