The REAL ODDS of making this shot...
- Thread starter 8onthebreak
- Start date
I agree completely. It's important to know in order to decide whether to shoot or play safe as people have said above, but I think it's important even if a safety isn't in the cards, because you usually have some choice in your shot. Either you have a choice of balls to shoot or at least a choice of how to play shape.
I know I often make the mistake of making my current shot a lot harder in order to play unnecessarily perfect position on my next shot, and it's usually because I fool myself into thinking I have a higher chance of making the hero shot than I really have.
object ball on the spot, cueball in the center is a 45 degree cut to the corner, plus a few degrees if the cueball is directly under it and a few degrees to compensate for throw, so about a 49. Thats a very makeable shot and many players will estimate their ability to make that shot 80% or higher. Most would be wrong of course as people seem to overestimate their ability.
a true 80 degree cut is very low percentage shot. Thats like cueball near the center and the object ball lays 1/2 diamond off the top rail in the center as well (76 degrees to the corner pocket plus the cueball directly under it adds in a few more degrees). Thats a Super thin cut shot that I would love to have my opponent shooting double hill.
a true 80 degree cut is very low percentage shot. Thats like cueball near the center and the object ball lays 1/2 diamond off the top rail in the center as well (76 degrees to the corner pocket plus the cueball directly under it adds in a few more degrees). Thats a Super thin cut shot that I would love to have my opponent shooting double hill.
I did not say that I never play defense. I probably play more 2 way shots than most. I'll often shoot a difficult bank shot instead of an 'easier' cut shot because it is the 'right' shot to shoot. IF I make it I probably win but IF I miss it my opponent will most probably be giving the table back to me. I just don't put percentage numbers on shots.
I know the 'value' of shots, both make & mis & decide 'how' to shoot it, IF I choose to shoot it. I win much more often because I am the smarter 'player' & not because I am the best 'shooter'. (since my eye accident 20 years ago)
I don't & never have 'practiced' certain shots. If you can make a shot once, then it is all about execution. Can you execute the shot when you need to do so. I personally don't see any shot any harder than another. I see them as more important in a game. It's all about the execution of any shot. An easy cut in the corner with 2 or 3 rail position is just as important as shooting a 2 rail bank in the side pocket while simply stopping the cue ball.
I also don't put numbers on my equal & opposite overlap method of 'aiming' either. I don't assign 1/4, 1/8/ etc. I just see the overlap, what ever it is. (5/16?)
Like someone else suggested, I don't want my mind cluttered with numbers & controversy. I want it focused on the task at hand., which is pocketing the bal & getting position. It's not figuring the odds that I might mis this shot. It's more like, what if I mis this shot, how do I want to mis it. If there is no good 2 way then maybe I shoot it to another pocket, even IF it is a harder shot because it offers the 2 way, OR maybe I actually play a safe. The thing is that I assign no percentage numbers to shots.
My question would be, at what percentage does one decide to NOT shoot a shot? 50/50, 60/40, 70/30. Where's the cut off line? Is it 65/35? How about 67/33?
I never said my way was the best or better way. To each his own. Some people are 'feel' players & others are mechanical, calculating players. I've just never seen anyone playing with a scientific calculator at the table figuring out their odds of making a shot. That reminds me of the guy in the movie, The Cincinnati Kid. He calculated the odds & called the bet & lost. He then said something like, 'that's not correct, that should not have happened.'
Regards,
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Roger,
I agree. How many know the exact odds of executing the safe to weigh it against the odds of the shot at hand. I doubt many have those odds down pat. I agree one should weigh all of one's options & then make the best decision which usually comes down to a gut feeling of what one 'feels' they can execute better.
It seems that this thread has pointed out how poorly certain people ESTIMATE their odds.
Real pool is not video pool. Video pool could probably spit out the real & correct odds.
I consider myself a smart player & that being said there would be times that I would still go against the correct odds because the table tells me to do so.
Sometime missing the hard shot IS the best shot.
Regards,
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The reality is, your prop bet has nothing to do with the actual statistics of making a shot. It's the same as saying, "This hitter has a .350 average. I bet he only goes 1 for 4 today." His average might be based on 200 at-bats. Taking four at-bats isn't going to give you an accurate amount of data to make any conclusions. You can't then say he's only a .250 hitter if he does go 1 for 4.
If your friend made the shot 7 of 10, he's proven that there's a very good chance he's closer to right than you think. Of course, the results are sensitive enough that the opposite can also be true. It could also be a 50% shot.
Although it's been years, I've studied statistics rather thoroughly. There are formulas that determine sufficient sample data and offer indications on the margin of error for a given example. I can't say I remember much of this but I can say with absolute certainty, you're not going to see anything overwhelmingly conclusive until you're looking at dozens, possibly hundreds of shots. That's not to mention learning curve and fatigue which can taint your results. I agree with the sentiment that most players are not aware of their success-percentage and for the most part, it rarely matters in pool. Either the correct shot is forced upon you or you weigh the options based on what feels best. It's not like poker where you can actually count the number of outs that will give you a winning hand and weigh that against the amount to call the bet.
If your friend made the shot 7 of 10, he's proven that there's a very good chance he's closer to right than you think. Of course, the results are sensitive enough that the opposite can also be true. It could also be a 50% shot.
Although it's been years, I've studied statistics rather thoroughly. There are formulas that determine sufficient sample data and offer indications on the margin of error for a given example. I can't say I remember much of this but I can say with absolute certainty, you're not going to see anything overwhelmingly conclusive until you're looking at dozens, possibly hundreds of shots. That's not to mention learning curve and fatigue which can taint your results. I agree with the sentiment that most players are not aware of their success-percentage and for the most part, it rarely matters in pool. Either the correct shot is forced upon you or you weigh the options based on what feels best. It's not like poker where you can actually count the number of outs that will give you a winning hand and weigh that against the amount to call the bet.
A player needs to see all the options he / she got on the table and then compare which one is the best to take. If a dead lock safety is easier than making the shot then trying to make the shot is a silly mistake. Everyone seems what they have on the table differently. The power to see comes from how well a player understand the game and their ability and calculating odds are a part of that analysis.
IMO the only way a player is going to be good at calculating odds if they understand their "true potential" on the pool table. But, how many players except for pro's / top amateurs have that ?
Calculating odds also depends on the type of game you play. When you are playing straight pool / 1- pocket and if you take a low percentage shot that might change the whole game. The same can be said for rotation when you get close to finishing the game. If you have a tough 9 ball shot (60% chance of making it) and virtually no good safe, what are you going to do ? play a "safety" and give your opponent a chance to go for it ? I would rather shoot the 9 ball then trying to play a phony safe.
At the end of the day the only thing that matters in pool is making the shot. That will make you win. Sometimes you'll have to "go" for a shot no matter what and sometimes thinking about your other options is better.
I think there is a thin line between being fearless and being stupid on the pool table. The funny thing is most of the time you will loose a game not because you missed a tough shot but cuz you missed an easy one (the one you can make all day long). And at that moment of time when you missed it all this talk about calculating odds goes right out the window.
IMO the only way a player is going to be good at calculating odds if they understand their "true potential" on the pool table. But, how many players except for pro's / top amateurs have that ?
Calculating odds also depends on the type of game you play. When you are playing straight pool / 1- pocket and if you take a low percentage shot that might change the whole game. The same can be said for rotation when you get close to finishing the game. If you have a tough 9 ball shot (60% chance of making it) and virtually no good safe, what are you going to do ? play a "safety" and give your opponent a chance to go for it ? I would rather shoot the 9 ball then trying to play a phony safe.
At the end of the day the only thing that matters in pool is making the shot. That will make you win. Sometimes you'll have to "go" for a shot no matter what and sometimes thinking about your other options is better.
I think there is a thin line between being fearless and being stupid on the pool table. The funny thing is most of the time you will loose a game not because you missed a tough shot but cuz you missed an easy one (the one you can make all day long). And at that moment of time when you missed it all this talk about calculating odds goes right out the window.
Let's be clear. Nobody actually is calculating any odds in pool. This isn't like poker on EPSN where the odds of winning are clearly displayed. This is pure judgement and the only question you should ask yourself is, "Which way will get me the win the easiest?" That's the only question that matters. All this talk about players calculating stuff is silly.
Runout percentages are based on shot making percentages, sequentially
You need to have a good idea of your shotmaking percentages with all levels of your game, from best to worst performances. Knowing these is what dictates how you play; safe, all out shot or 2 way shot, along with so much more.
If you face 4 shots where you should make each ball 90% of the time , you likelihood of making all 4 is only %65.
If you face 4 shots where you should make each ball 85% of the time the odds of making all 4 drops to 52%.
With 4 shots at 80% potting percentage, a runout occurs only 41% of the time.
You need to be aware of the effect of poor position play and how any shot with a 80% or less chance of being made really hurts runout percentages.
Yes most peoiple overestimate their shotmaking percentages ...and then wonder why they don't win. These are often the middle of the road players that always seem to pass on winning safetys, even when balls are tied up later in the rack.
You need to have a good idea of your shotmaking percentages with all levels of your game, from best to worst performances. Knowing these is what dictates how you play; safe, all out shot or 2 way shot, along with so much more.
If you face 4 shots where you should make each ball 90% of the time , you likelihood of making all 4 is only %65.
If you face 4 shots where you should make each ball 85% of the time the odds of making all 4 drops to 52%.
With 4 shots at 80% potting percentage, a runout occurs only 41% of the time.
You need to be aware of the effect of poor position play and how any shot with a 80% or less chance of being made really hurts runout percentages.
Yes most peoiple overestimate their shotmaking percentages ...and then wonder why they don't win. These are often the middle of the road players that always seem to pass on winning safetys, even when balls are tied up later in the rack.
I think it is good to have at least a rough idea of your chances. For those who didn't follow the description above, here is a diagram of a 75-degree cut shot off the foot spot from about the center of the table. I doubt that most players would be willing to give up 10-1 money odds on the shot, even top players.
One way to learn your percentages for a particular shot that is faster than just shooting a shot over and over is to use a technique called "progressive practice". This works for shots that can be made harder or easier by varying something like distance. In the simplest form, it gives you your 50% point for some kind of shot (such as shots off the spot with cut angle as the variable). See item 4 under http://sfbilliards.com/misc.htm for more explanation of how this works.
Okay so what if you're faced with 4 shots and three of them are 100% and one of them is 10%, what are your odds?
10%, right? You multiply the probability of (independent) events to get the probability that they will all happen, and 1 * 1 * 1 *.10 = 10%.
I think a lot of players (OK, I'm talking about myself) make the mistake of shooting a 70% shot and then a 90% shot (.7 * .9 = 63%) rather than just taking the easier 90% shot first and settling for a little bit harder 80% shot on the second ball (.9 * .8 = 72%).
Most people I'm sure don't attach numbers to shots - though it may not be a bad idea - but don't you think most people have a feeling about their chance of making various shots? And doesn't that figure in to their shot choice and strategy?
You're right. 10%. The point I was trying to make is, there's very little "calculation" to be made. It's all going to boil down to whether or not there's a weak shot in the middle of this sequence which makes everything very obvious.
Most people don't attach numbers to shots because the numbers vary. Managing your shot selection is like being the manager of a major league baseball team. If you're hot, you swing away. If you're not, you bunt. You can have identical scenarios arise in a season and handle them differently each time and be right both times.
Pool is the same way. Sometimes, you know the balls are going in and you play accordingly. Sometimes you're a little off and you minimize the number of shots you take that would be labeled as "difficult".
In my personal opinion, you should almost always try to run out. The only time you shouldn't is when you really can't and only then should you play safe. There are rare occasions that can be dubious but it should be weighted somewhat carefully. Playing safe doesn't always means you're getting back to the table nor does it mean you're winning. I can tell you right now, if my opponent is on the 5 or later and opts to pass on a shot to play safe, oftentimes I feel pretty fortunate to be back at the table. I can only influence the outcome of the game if I'm shooting. The fundamental problem with playing safe is, you're no longer working with your own percentages. Now, you have to factor your opponent's percentages into the equation too.
I have a few shots in my bag that are better left in the bag in most situations.... A friend of mine watched me playing a match and I thin cut a ball in full table with a ton of outside... He thought I should have played safe on it....
We argued about it and I proceeded to set the shot up and make it 3 times in a row... He had me keep going and I made the shot 7 out of 10... That day the shot was worth shooting because there was no real safety that was going to be better than 70%.....
A few days later I was playing and the same shot came up and I proceeded to miss the ball... I set it up again and proceeded to make it 3 out of 10....
I realized that maybe the true odds had a lot to do with mindset and they were situational so I took the shot and sat it on the bench... I only put it in the game IF the end results of a miss are a 2 way....
This is what I started doing on any ball I missed... I made a note of it and I shot it until I knew the odds as best that I could...
Playing within yourself is about learning to win when your "A" game didn't show up... When you are in the zone you can fire at will... Riding momentum you might have a few extra points to play with but a miss or 2 on shots you could have played safe on tends to knock you out of the saddle....
I don't put in the hours anymore to even get a sniff of my "A" game so knowing when to fold em has been key to enjoying playing when I do actually have a chance to play...
Banging them around you can shoot at anything and some people will get aggravated if you are playing safes but you are doing yourself and your game a disservice by not using the odds...
Keep that in mind when you are on the table... I'm not saying you always have to play like your life is on the line... Some of my best memories are of just banging them around with friends and shooting from the hip...
I'm just saying those types of nights should be few and far between if you are or are intending to play the game seriously and play tournaments or gamble....
Chris
We argued about it and I proceeded to set the shot up and make it 3 times in a row... He had me keep going and I made the shot 7 out of 10... That day the shot was worth shooting because there was no real safety that was going to be better than 70%.....
A few days later I was playing and the same shot came up and I proceeded to miss the ball... I set it up again and proceeded to make it 3 out of 10....
I realized that maybe the true odds had a lot to do with mindset and they were situational so I took the shot and sat it on the bench... I only put it in the game IF the end results of a miss are a 2 way....
This is what I started doing on any ball I missed... I made a note of it and I shot it until I knew the odds as best that I could...
Playing within yourself is about learning to win when your "A" game didn't show up... When you are in the zone you can fire at will... Riding momentum you might have a few extra points to play with but a miss or 2 on shots you could have played safe on tends to knock you out of the saddle....
I don't put in the hours anymore to even get a sniff of my "A" game so knowing when to fold em has been key to enjoying playing when I do actually have a chance to play...
Banging them around you can shoot at anything and some people will get aggravated if you are playing safes but you are doing yourself and your game a disservice by not using the odds...
Keep that in mind when you are on the table... I'm not saying you always have to play like your life is on the line... Some of my best memories are of just banging them around with friends and shooting from the hip...
I'm just saying those types of nights should be few and far between if you are or are intending to play the game seriously and play tournaments or gamble....
Chris
I developed a "Shot Matrix" analysis tool (in the Safety Toolbox) to determine what to do in common playing situations and when to go on offense or defense.
Key is the realistic evaluation on success based on 10 attempts of the shot.
On days when everything is dropping - you can attempt lower percentage shots. But when your game disappears, shorten up on your confidence level - a lot.
For example - on average, you can make a shot 50% of the time. On good days, this can be 80%. On bad days, it will be less than 30%. Make your playing decisions based on your shooting at that time, not some memorable experience where you couldn't miss blindfolded.
Key is the realistic evaluation on success based on 10 attempts of the shot.
On days when everything is dropping - you can attempt lower percentage shots. But when your game disappears, shorten up on your confidence level - a lot.
For example - on average, you can make a shot 50% of the time. On good days, this can be 80%. On bad days, it will be less than 30%. Make your playing decisions based on your shooting at that time, not some memorable experience where you couldn't miss blindfolded.
Good points & good advice.
This is pretty accurate...and I was playing against a very good player.
The progressive exercises (popularized by Bob Jewett) are especially useful when finding the area between your comfort zone and chaos zone.
There are two sets of comfort/chaos zones.
A shooting comfort zone is a setup where the distance from the OB to pocket, CB to OB, and shot angle is easy to make 7, 8 9, 10 out of 10 times. A shooting chaos zone is when the chances for success are low 3, 2, 1, 0 times in 10 tries. There is a border zone for shots in the 4, 5, and 6 / 10. Choosing to pocket those shots depends on your up/down energy cycle for that game.
Progressive exercises means changing one of those three conditions: OB to pocket, CB to OB, and shot angle. You start with a setup, and make the shot progressively more difficult, i.e., (shift the cue ball to the side a ball width at a time). Eventually, you start failing and that is where your chaos zone starts.The book "Drills & Exercises" has a LOT of these.
The second comfort chaos zone is getting position for the next ball. If you can pocket the fist ball, how easy/difficult is it to get shape on the second ball? For some second ball setups - not so difficult. For others - very tough if not impossible. You have to consider whether you want to make the first ball or play safe if you know it's beyond your skills to continue.
The book "Cue Ball Control" really goes into this with easy setups for the first ball and then progressively more difficult positions for the second ball. There are specified speed and spin tips - and you can even test out others. But there are some very tough shots.
There are two sets of comfort/chaos zones.
A shooting comfort zone is a setup where the distance from the OB to pocket, CB to OB, and shot angle is easy to make 7, 8 9, 10 out of 10 times. A shooting chaos zone is when the chances for success are low 3, 2, 1, 0 times in 10 tries. There is a border zone for shots in the 4, 5, and 6 / 10. Choosing to pocket those shots depends on your up/down energy cycle for that game.
Progressive exercises means changing one of those three conditions: OB to pocket, CB to OB, and shot angle. You start with a setup, and make the shot progressively more difficult, i.e., (shift the cue ball to the side a ball width at a time). Eventually, you start failing and that is where your chaos zone starts.The book "Drills & Exercises" has a LOT of these.
The second comfort chaos zone is getting position for the next ball. If you can pocket the fist ball, how easy/difficult is it to get shape on the second ball? For some second ball setups - not so difficult. For others - very tough if not impossible. You have to consider whether you want to make the first ball or play safe if you know it's beyond your skills to continue.
The book "Cue Ball Control" really goes into this with easy setups for the first ball and then progressively more difficult positions for the second ball. There are specified speed and spin tips - and you can even test out others. But there are some very tough shots.
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