The REAL ODDS of making this shot...

8

8onthebreak

THE WORLD IS YOURS
Silver Member
I run into situations very often when someone thinks that a particular shot should be made 90% of the time. Etc.

The shot that came up recently was like the 9 on the break spot, and cue ball around the middle of the table...only it was a sharper cut than that...say, 70-80 degree cut into the corner. A friend I was playing said "I can't believe you missed that shot...that's a basic shot...you should make that every time"

I explained that its a 70% shot...he insisted that its a 90% shot. I bet some cash on it,

When I set the shot up and challenge him to shoot it 10 times, he made it 7 out of the 10... And then blamed boredom and fatigue.

It's amazing to me how many times folks over-estimate the real odds of a given shot.

I think it's important to know your odds on every shot...what do you think?
 
The REAL Odds

The reason this is even a question is that the real odds vary based on how often you have hit the shot, how strong your fundamentals are, how disciplined you are, how well you can adjust when you miss a shot.

Bottom Line... Know THE Shots, NEVER hit a ball when your fundamentals are out of line, Know how to adjust VERY quickly when you miss.

In so doing the above, you can shift the odds in your favor.
 
I never reallly think of the 'odds' of any shot. I don't get to shoot any of them 10 times in a row. I only get to shoot it one time & I need to make it that one time. If I make it, it does not matter if it was a 1 in a 100 or if I mis it, it does not matter if it was 99.9 shot.

I guess I don't see your point. You either shoot the shot or you don't. If you start assigning degrees of difficulty to shots then you could put undue pressure on yourself & have an excuse for when you mis.

I just don't see it.

Regards,
 
8onthebreak said:
I run into situations very often when someone thinks that a particular shot should be made 90% of the time. Etc.

The shot that came up recently was like the 9 on the break spot, and cue ball around the middle of the table...only it was a sharper cut than that...say, 70-80 degree cut into the corner. A friend I was playing said "I can't believe you missed that shot...that's a basic shot...you should make that every time"

I explained that its a 70% shot...he insisted that its a 90% shot. I bet some cash on it,

When I set the shot up and challenge him to shoot it 10 times, he made it 7 out of the 10... And then blamed boredom and fatigue.

It's amazing to me how many times folks over-estimate the real odds of a given shot.

I think it's important to know your odds on every shot...what do you think?
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You might be both right. I attribute a lot of my losses, or poor play, to mental weakness. I'm not a pro and I don't have the focus to bear down on every shot like it was my job. That tends to make a lot of theoretically 90% shots into 70% shots, for me at least. If the stakes on the shot are high enough, I'll bear down and the odds will be 90%; if not, I'll play at my usual medium level of focus and the odds will be 70%.
 
ENGLISH! said:
I never reallly think of the 'odds' of any shot.
Click to expand...

You should, because that's one set of data you need to decide if you go for the shot or duck. Knowing your odds and options, both offensively and defensively for every given shot, weighing those odds and making a decision based on those odds is how the game is played.

Imo of course.

-roger
 
Know thyself

Good stuff here...
Also understanding your odds of making a shot is one of the ways you can tell if your practice routine is working or not. I tend to be a object in motion and if I am applying proper attention and effort to my training, my pocket average on any shot I am practicing should be going up. If I am failing at this objective my pocket average is sadly and most likely falling.
 
8onthebreak said:
I run into situations very often when someone thinks that a particular shot should be made 90% of the time. Etc.

The shot that came up recently was like the 9 on the break spot, and cue ball around the middle of the table...only it was a sharper cut than that...say, 70-80 degree cut into the corner. A friend I was playing said "I can't believe you missed that shot...that's a basic shot...you should make that every time"

I explained that its a 70% shot...he insisted that its a 90% shot. I bet some cash on it,

When I set the shot up and challenge him to shoot it 10 times, he made it 7 out of the 10... And then blamed boredom and fatigue.

It's amazing to me how many times folks over-estimate the real odds of a given shot.

I think it's important to know your odds on every shot...what do you think?
Click to expand...

I think its important to know the odds on shots, and they are pretty much based on your personal ability.

An important note though, you can't prove the odds just by shooting it 10 times on one occassion. It would take hundreds of shots to realistically figure out your personal odds. (then you'd get better because you're shooting it a lot) You could make it 7 out of 10 today, 10 out of 10 tomorrow, and 9 out of 10 the next day for a bit under 90% total for example. Your friend could very well make the shot 90% of the time, but just not on those 10. Of course he could make the shot only 50% of the time, and this time he made a couple more than normal.
 
ENGLISH! said:
I never reallly think of the 'odds' of any shot. I don't get to shoot any of them 10 times in a row. I only get to shoot it one time & I need to make it that one time. If I make it, it does not matter if it was a 1 in a 100 or if I mis it, it does not matter if it was 99.9 shot.

I guess I don't see your point. You either shoot the shot or you don't. If you start assigning degrees of difficulty to shots then you could put undue pressure on yourself & have an excuse for when you mis.

I just don't see it.

Regards,
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I'm thinking after 108 years of you playing we have finally found out why no one knows who the hell you are..... If you had learned percentages 54 years ago you would understand that gut feelings mean Nada..UNLESS you are in the saddle of MO.....

You play the percentages or you PAY the opponent... Open and shut case..... Not trying to be an azs but "safe players die broke too, don't they Burt" is accurate but wingers go broke... well before they die.....
\
Chris
 
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ENGLISH! said:
I never reallly think of the 'odds' of any shot. I don't get to shoot any of them 10 times in a row. I only get to shoot it one time & I need to make it that one time. If I make it, it does not matter if it was a 1 in a 100 or if I mis it, it does not matter if it was 99.9 shot.

I guess I don't see your point. You either shoot the shot or you don't. If you start assigning degrees of difficulty to shots then you could put undue pressure on yourself & have an excuse for when you mis.

I just don't see it.

Regards,
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You may want to start trying to "see it." Knowing your own abilities and limitations will definitely help your game.

Also, you may not get to shoot a shot 10 times in a row, but you definitely get to shoot a shot many times over the course of competing. Lets say for example, you are playing in a hill hill game in the tournament finals, you come across a shot you've been practicing, but still are having issues with, you know you miss this shot as much or more than you make it. So, would you still take this shot since with your theory you only have to make it this one time? (obviously if no easier safety is available, you shoot)

If you would still shoot this shot, you need to take some time to practice away from the table. Practice mentally making yourself learn to think about other options before you just go firing away.

I see players do this in 1p a lot. They see a shot high level players would shoot routinely but its not yet in their arsenal. They shoot the shot and either miss and sell out, or they get the cue ball position wrong, don't block the ball, and their opponent just knocks the ball up table. If they knew their own capabilities, they could have picked a better shot, and save this one for the practice table.

This is akin to some bad poker player saying "every hand is 50/50, I either win or I lose." Those players generally go home broke, and your theory is the pool equivalent.
 
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Add a ton of pressure to any shot (even a hanger) and it becomes much more difficult to make. You have to be sound not only in the physical parts but stronger in the mental parts of pocketing balls. Overall answer to this... There is no 9/10 shots. They are all 1/1 or 0/1 and thats that...
 
RunoutJJ said:
Add a ton of pressure to any shot (even a hanger) and it becomes much more difficult to make. You have to be sound not only in the physical parts but stronger in the mental parts of pocketing balls. Overall answer to this... There is no 9/10 shots. They are all 1/1 or 0/1 and thats that...
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All I can say to this is hit more balls...1/1/ or 0/1 is exactly why players will fail under pressure.......... percentages don't go away because of pressure... we just toss the percentages aside because of the adrenaline coursing thru our systems.......

Chris


sorry bout that u was intended as indefinite =)
 
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great thread here!
the truth is that pros n semi-pros hit the same shot over 500 times non stop... these routines strengthen the players confidence.... so when that shot comes up... it's already in the routine n becomes much easier under pressure...
I've had the pleasure to watch top philipines practice like Orcullo ... biado... de Luna ... n these guys give the table 8 hours a day....
 
The strongest players are the ones who know their probability of making a certain shot (which changes under certain conditions) and plan their strategy and make their decisions accordingly.

When a good player makes any sort of decision, for example, to play safe instead of shooting, or to kick at a ball using several rails instead of just using 1, they are choosing the option that has the highest probability of success from their own experience.

I guarantee that if you take two players of equal skill, the one who understands his percentages better and plays to them will win over time.
 
8onthebreak said:
I run into situations very often when someone thinks that a particular shot should be made 90% of the time. Etc.

The shot that came up recently was like the 9 on the break spot, and cue ball around the middle of the table...only it was a sharper cut than that...say, 70-80 degree cut into the corner. A friend I was playing said "I can't believe you missed that shot...that's a basic shot...you should make that every time"

I explained that its a 70% shot...he insisted that its a 90% shot. I bet some cash on it,

When I set the shot up and challenge him to shoot it 10 times, he made it 7 out of the 10... And then blamed boredom and fatigue.

It's amazing to me how many times folks over-estimate the real odds of a given shot.

I think it's important to know your odds on every shot...what do you think?
Click to expand...

All very interesting. Never thought of the odds before. I look at 2 things when I get to the next ball

1. Can I make it? I know either way whether I can or I can't.
2. Then I weigh the value of making the shot. My position play is not up to par more often than not and I know my limitations. I will just play it safe.

If I am gonna opt to make it I don't like the idea of measuring the odds. Some shots do require a large amount of focus and review yet my best game is loose playing it as it is: a game.
 
Yup, was just saying something similar in dub's thread.
I'd say average players overestimate their ability to make balls by at least 20%.

If I can play a 2-way and get safe then I don't worry about whether it's a hard shot.
But if I'm gonna sell out, you can't just shoot it like it's automatic,
you gotta give serious thought to ducking.

Had a similar experience with someone who thought full table banks were easy.
He thought 70%, I told him he could get paid if he made more than 30%.
I was honestly surprised he even made 3/10.
There's no sense in lying to yourself on the pool table.
 
8onthebreak said:
I run into situations very often when someone thinks that a particular shot should be made 90% of the time. Etc.

The shot that came up recently was like the 9 on the break spot, and cue ball around the middle of the table...only it was a sharper cut than that...say, 70-80 degree cut into the corner. A friend I was playing said "I can't believe you missed that shot...that's a basic shot...you should make that every time"

I explained that its a 70% shot...he insisted that its a 90% shot. I bet some cash on it,

When I set the shot up and challenge him to shoot it 10 times, he made it 7 out of the 10... And then blamed boredom and fatigue.

It's amazing to me how many times folks over-estimate the real odds of a given shot.

I think it's important to know your odds on every shot...what do you think?
Click to expand...


I think you got the $$$ and won the argument. in reality nuff said:grin-square:

Id like to find customers for prop bets like that. And I agree most people think 70% shots are 90% shots, they might be 90% for Alex, but I aint Alex. Gotta keep it real, good thread
 
I think it's great to know the odds. I've always been a realist when it comes to critiquing my own game....

....however, I do think there are times when you have to just say forget all the numbers, all the stats, all the ratios, all that stuff, and you just have to get down and fire the ball into the hole.

Do you think a mind that is free of all the numbers clutter would be more or less likely to take a 70% shot and move it up to an 80% shot? Keep in mind, you only get to shoot the shot once.

I see both sides of this...
 
buddha162 said:
You should, because that's one set of data you need to decide if you go for the shot or duck. Knowing your odds and options, both offensively and defensively for every given shot, weighing those odds and making a decision based on those odds is how the game is played.

Imo of course.

-roger
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Roger,

Perhaps I should have said that I never assign a number % to any given shot. I've made them all & I certainly know I can I make them again. Certainly, I know if one shot is harder than another & that is when one needs to bear down a bit & make sure to make the shot & not take it for granted. But to say one shot is 50/50 & another is 40/60, I just don't do that. What if a shot is a 30/70 shot but making it leads to an easy win, do you not shoot the shot because it is a low percentage shot? If I did that, I would never have made the many very good or great shots that I have.

The game tells you what needs to be done once one learns to understand the tables language.:wink: You either accept the challenge or you back down from it. I usually accept the challenge, though I may shoot it in a manner of a what if I mis two way shot & leave my opponent with little if I mis. I usually make the shot & leave myself with a harder one than the one I just shot.

Regards,
 
The Renfro said:
All I can say to this is hit more balls...1/1/ or 0/1 is exactly why players will fail under pressure.......... percentages don't go away because of pressure... we just toss the percentages aside because of the adrenaline coursing thru our systems.......

Chris
Click to expand...


Fixed it :cool:
 
ENGLISH! said:
What if a shot is a 30/70 shot but making it leads to an easy win, do you not shoot the shot because it is a low percentage shot? If I did that, I would never have made the many very good or great shots that I have.
Click to expand...

The missing variable in your equation is whether a safety is available, and if so the odds of executing the safety vs. the odds of making the shot + position for next ball.

-roger
 
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