Tournament Draw Question

AF pool guy said:
Odds are exactly the same first or last.
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No they are not. They could be if the ratio of byes to players remains the same, but every time a player is drawn for a bye or a match it reduces.

You could very well end up with all 4 players playing each other happen on the first 4 draws and then it is 100% for the remaining 14 players to get a bye. Or the exact opposite happening at the end.
 
Cornerman said:
P.,

I'm not understanding how 14 byes are actually 28. Do you get two points for winning?

I'm seeing this as:

18 players means 18 possibilities: 14 are byes and 4 are non-byes. The four non-byes represent one match between 2 players in the upper half of the 32 player draw, and one match between 2 players in the lower half of the 32 player draw (16 matches in round 1). The remaining 14 player get byes.

Looks like straight math: 14 to 4 are the odds that any of the 18 draws a bye vs drawing a non-bye. 14:4 is the same as 7:2. So if you were to make a bet on getting a bye, you'd have to lay at least 7:2 for someone to consider it a good bet, or take 7:2 if you were betting on the non-bye.
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I'm still laughing at myself over this one....in my enthusiasm to show off my backgammon
knowledge, I forgot that 14 spots are taken with byes.......
....morons should be more humble...:o
 
Skippy27 said:
No they are not. They could be if the ratio of byes to players remains the same, but every time a player is drawn for a bye or a match it reduces.
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Most people are discussing the odds BEFORE the drawing starts. When there is only 1 draw left it is either 0% or 100% and not very interesting.

Thank you kindly.
 
Skippy27 said:
No they are not. They could be if the ratio of byes to players remains the same, but every time a player is drawn for a bye or a match it reduces.



You could very well end up with all 4 players playing each other happen on the first 4 draws and then it is 100% for the remaining 14 players to get a bye. Or the exact opposite happening at the end.
Click to expand...


The original poster wanted to know what were the odds if he decided to have the absent player draw first or last. At the moment the TD makes that decision, which should be before any positions are drawn, the odds are exactly equal.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
jgpool said:
Thanks to all who responded and it looks like the consensus is that the odds do not change, they are 7-1 whether he draws first or last.
I knew I could count on you guys, thanks!
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Oy vey! It's 7:2.

Please don't go back and tell people that the AZB folks set you straight and said it was 7:1.

Freddie <~~~ it's still 7:2
 
pt109 said:
I'm still laughing at myself over this one....in my enthusiasm to show off my backgammon
knowledge, I forgot that 14 spots are taken with byes.......
....morons should be more humble...:o
Click to expand...

You're going to have to explain it to the OP's retirement community.
 
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