Would you take EVEN MONEY odds to BREAK AND RUN a 9 ball rack?

hemicudas

hemicudas

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Hypothetical situation:
Hotel X in Las Vegas installs a new Diamond Pro table in the loby with signs all around saying, "Break And Run 9 Balls And Win What Ever You Would Like To Bet." Do you take this bet and for how much? How good do you have to be to take the bet? Surely, Efren, Johnny, Earl and others take the bet,,,but what about you? The hotel would surely get many drunks taking a shot. Could the hotel make money with this proposition? If not, what odds would the hotel have to offer to make money? Could the hotel get away with handicapping good players? Is this feasible? You tell me.
 
I might would book that.

Here's you a money maker. Set up your table. Have the 1 - 4 balls racked in a diamond turned sideways, 1 in front, 4 in back, 2&3 on sides. Do not have to make a ball on the break. Run the four balls in rotation call pocket. Minimum bet $10 - Maximum bet $100. Bet is even money. Same player cannot win more than twice in the same day. It'll make you a fortune even on a bar box.
 
what about sinking the 9 on the break?

the pros average about 30% on break/run's

subtract the number of times you don't sink a ball on the break,,,subtract the number of times you do but can't see the opening shot,,,subtract the difficulty of the rack,,,subtract how good you are.
 
I read Deuel beat the 10-ball ghost on a Diamond table.
But, not getting ball in hand on the first ball and having to make a ball on the break and get an open shot, is a tough proposition.
Specially on a tight Diamond Pro.
 
I think even the pro's would get eaten alive in a long session by this proposition. Now if they were allowed ball in hand and did not have the requirement to make a ball on the break (incidentally, the rules at the break and run contest run every week at our local tournament), the odds are much different. A friend of mine was present when Efren Reyes played 100 racks in a row with the more liberal rules; he succeeded 82 out of the 100 racks. It looked to me like everyone entered in the Derby City would be above 50%.
P.S. - I think it is safe to say the rest of humanity can subtract a certain percentage from his rate if they wish to compute their own chance of success.
 
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I (personally, for myself) do not call it a "break and run" if I take ball in hand after the break, or don't make anything on the break, or both.
I apologize for the nitpicking.
David
 
I like the odds for the hotel! I don't break and run out better than 50% of the time. How many people beat the Ghost with ball in hand after the break? So, Hemi, to answer your question, I'd try it for cheap but I wouldn't bet my house on it!
 
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ball in hand after the break is not a break and run. however if that's their definition, then that's the rules.
 
Must make a ball on the break and no ball in hand. Again, 9 on the break wins. Any legal combination wins.
 
The odds would be in favor of the house if the pros played the game - probably 65-35. I am sure the house would love those odds.

Just think how lopsided the odds would be for non-pros.

The player has to be successful 7-9 shots in a row. Miss once and the house wins.

How many times do you see a player break and come up dry - house wins.

Or he makes a couple balls and has no shot - house wins.

Or he jaws a ball - house wins

Sounds like a real sucker bet to me.

I'll give that bet all day long.


Jake
 
jjinfla said:
The odds would be in favor of the house if the pros played the game - probably 65-35. I am sure the house would love those odds.

Just think how lopsided the odds would be for non-pros.

The player has to be successful 7-9 shots in a row. Miss once and the house wins.

How many times do you see a player break and come up dry - house wins.

Or he makes a couple balls and has no shot - house wins.

Or he jaws a ball - house wins

Sounds like a real sucker bet to me.

I'll give that bet all day long.


Jake
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Good points Jake. Now, what type of odds would the house have to give to tempt say, an APA 7 into taking a shot? 2-1, 3-1, 4-1? What are the highest odds the hotel could give and still realize a profit? There would have to be a minimum bet. Why shouldn't hotel X take the time and effort to find out the true odds and coin another popular gambling game? It's not like having to install a bowling alley and have someone try to bowl a 300 game. I think it would be a potentially profitable endevor.
 
hemicudas said:
Good points Jake. Now, what type of odds would the house have to give to tempt say, an APA 7 into taking a shot? 2-1, 3-1, 4-1? What are the highest odds the hotel could give and still realize a profit? There would have to be a minimum bet. Why shouldn't hotel X take the time and effort to find out the true odds and coin another popular gambling game? It's not like having to install a bowling alley and have someone try to bowl a 300 game. I think it would be a potentially profitable endevor.
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I think giving odds of 3-1 or 4-1 would lure more people into the game and bring the player/casino closer to a break even point if the player can run 1 out of every three or four racks. However, if you had a minimum bet of $500 or maybe even $200, I think ass puckering syndrome would kick in and the odds would still be in favor of the casino. I might consider the bet at 2-1 or possibly even if my break was exploding on any given night and a ball or two was dropping regularly, but maybe for $20-$50. Otherwise, I'd have to have ball in hand or the ability to move the CB one hand width in any direction once or twice anytime during the rack that I chose.
 
drivermaker said:
I think giving odds of 3-1 or 4-1 would lure more people into the game and bring the player/casino closer to a break even point if the player can run 1 out of every three or four racks. However, if you had a minimum bet of $500 or maybe even $200, I think ass puckering syndrome would kick in and the odds would still be in favor of the casino. I might consider the bet at 2-1 or possibly even if my break was exploding on any given night and a ball or two was dropping regularly, but maybe for $20-$50. Otherwise, I'd have to have ball in hand or the ability to move the CB one hand width in any direction once or twice anytime during the rack that I chose.
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That sounds like using a couple of life lines in who wants to be a millionaire with Regis, which might be feasible. Then you would have the opportunity to make multiple bets with varying odds. The highest odds would be on a straight run; another set of odds with ball in hand; another set of odds if you use a hand width; and possibly odds of 1-2 if you were able to take a mulligan on a missed shot on any balls from 1 through 5.
 
longball said:
That sounds like using a couple of life lines in who wants to be a millionaire with Regis, which might be feasible. Then you would have the opportunity to make multiple bets with varying odds. The highest odds would be on a straight run; another set of odds with ball in hand; another set of odds if you use a hand width; and possibly odds of 1-2 if you were able to take a mulligan on a missed shot on any balls from 1 through 5.
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This is getting exciting, put this on TV.....What would this do for the game? :D
 
Actually the four ball senerio I gave is used here at the local county fair in the fall. At it you don't even have to run rotation, just break and then run all the balls without missing. You do not have to make a ball on the break but anything that goes counts, just run what is left. You would really be surprised how much money this guy makes. Naturally he can't pay cash or the local law would call it gambling. It's $2 to win a small stuffed animal or $5 to win a large. Granted, he makes most of his money off the mid-teen kids. I have seen some really good players try it 3 or 4 times in a row without doing it (myself included althought I am not really good). I watched for quite sometime one night and the folks I know that are good shooters seemed to miss the next to last ball more than any other. I believe it is the butt tightening factor of doing this with a large crowd of stangers watching. Also the equipment doesn't help, two old 8' ball return tables with weak rails and really worn and torn cloth along with crooked house cues with flat tips. Still, it sure sound easy.
 
15%

Years ago there was an acccu-stat magazine that tracked the break and run percentages for the tour, I believe number i remember was the touring pro's were breaking and running out a little less than 15%of the time which would put the odds dramatically in favor of the house.
 
OK, How About 10-1 Odds?

Duck said:
Years ago there was an acccu-stat magazine that tracked the break and run percentages for the tour, I believe number i remember was the touring pro's were breaking and running out a little less than 15%of the time which would put the odds dramatically in favor of the house.
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Assuming Duck is right, could Hotel X see a profit giving 10-1 odds on a pure run-out? Would you take a shot at 10-1 odds? I think many would. Surely the top 10 players would try. Could Hotel X make enough off of lower players to offset the possible loss to great players? Again, could Hotel X get away with handicapping Efren and the like? Could they bar the BCA big dog list?

Folks, all I'm trying to do here is create some interest by the big casinos in helping promote the game we all love. The reason casinos won't, at this time, sponsor big time pool, as they do poker, is they have been "bitten" in the past by handicapping and posting odds on big time tournaments. This obviously leaves a bad taste in their mouths.

How can a large casino be assured that no "Business" is done during a major pool tournament?

ANSWER: "Professor" R.H. Gilmer's version of the Southern Billiards "Ring Game". In the Professor's version, it is virtually impossible for players to "Cheat". The possibility of one player assisting the following player is eliminated by drawing for a new order of play every hour or every certain no. of games played.

A small Ring Game tournament would consist of 6 players per table and 6 tables going at the same time. The winner of each of the 6 tables would advance to the "Final Table".

Entry fee? Again, you tell me. This type of tournament could be, safely, handicapped by the casino. Dependent on how much was wagered on each player.

I believe this would be a money maker for the casino as well as generate vitally needed interest in our sport.
 
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