Pool industry analysis from 2004 to Present using Google Trends

DeadStick

DeadStick

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Since I use Google Trends data quite a bit in my day job as a tech entrepreneur, I thought I would do a quick analysis of the pool industry and share the results here.

For those unfamiliar, Google Trends uses relative search term volume to gauge public interest of any topic you can think of. The graphs are a pretty good proxy for popularity over time, as they indicate a person cared enough about a topic to "google it." Unfortunately, we have this data only going back to 2004.

In an effort to get a longer historical view of the industry trend, I headed over to Google Books Ngram Viewer. At bottom is a graph of the frequency of the term "pool table" in books from 1800 - 2008, and then a zoom in from 1990 to 2008.

I'll reserve my interpretations for now, and just let the data do the talking...

Pool, Worldwide
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Pool, US
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Pool, US vs UK
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Pool vs Poker, Worldwide
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Pool vs Poker, US
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Pool, Top US States
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"Pool League", US
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APA vs BCA, US
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APA vs BCA vs Mosconi Cup, US
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DCC vs Mosconi Cup vs SBE
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continued in next post...
 
(continued from previous post)


Mosconi Cup, US vs UK
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Mosconi Cup, US vs Germany
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Brunswick vs Diamond, 2004-Present
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Brunswick vs Diamond, 2010-Present
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Table vs Cue vs Balls
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Pool vs Snooker, Worldwide
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8-Ball vs 9-Ball vs 10-ball vs Bonus Ball
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"Pool Table" in books, 1800-2008
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"Pool Table" in books, 1990-2008
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Nice analysis in trending. I'd bet for every five pool halls that have closed one has opened over the same period. It is what it is. I wonder what it will look like in twenty years, if I am lucky I might live that long!
 
Not sure that google knows the difference between "pool" for swimming and "pool" as a billiard related term.

Or "diamond" as a maker of pool tables vs the shiny rocks women like.

Etc.
 
Mr. Bond said:
Not sure that google knows the difference between "pool" for swimming and "pool" as a billiard related term.

Or "diamond" as a maker of pool tables vs the shiny rocks women like.

Etc.
Click to expand...

Ah, but Google does. Note that I've limited the search category to "Games > Table Games > Billiards" for most of those queries.
 
Interesting. It looks pretty much the way I would have expected it to. Makes me wonder about other activities-bowling for example-that don't involve a computer screen. I'd bet they would fare similar to pool. If you put in 'cell phone', or 'twitter', or 'facebook' your computer might catch on fire.
 
how do google differenciate between pool as in "swimming pool" and pool as in "pocket billiards"?
 
JayKidd said:
how do google differenciate between pool as in "swimming pool" and pool as in "pocket billiards"?
Click to expand...


They know what you click on in the search results, and the sorts of things you've searched for recently. Google has gone far past simply looking at words, and understands the context of searches in most cases.

That plus, of course, most people don't search for simply "pool", but rather "pool hall" or "play pool" or "pool table" or "swimming pool".

Regarding "pocket billiards" specifically, that's a comparatively rare search term compared with "pool" the game - "normal" people don't call it that.
 
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DeadStick said:
Ah, but Google does. Note that I've limited the search category to "Games > Table Games > Billiards" for most of those queries.
Click to expand...

Very good.
The numbers are also what I would have expected.
Without a doubt, there have been many that have begun to play pool over the past twenty years or so
despite the declining number of "hits."

Now here is what I think is the GOOD news about the decline.....
Aside from the market "adjusting" by getting those inefficient businesses out of the way and the potential
for cheaper entries to market, those players who HAVE begun to play are of a higher QUALITY individual.

As we know, pool takes time to show any kind of improvement and those who HAVE recently taken up the game
are more inclined to do so with the sufficient wherewithal (a job and/or something going on in their lives) to support their endeavor.
Times are difficult right now so people have to have something going on to support themselves if they want to enjoy hobbies.

So in twenty years from now? We're going to have an industry that is more efficient, high-quality game. Just you wait!
 
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boogeyman said:
Very good.
The numbers are also what I would have expected.
Without a doubt, there have been many that have begun to play pool over the past twenty years or so
despite the declining number of "hits."

Now here is what I think is the GOOD news about the decline.....
Aside from the market "adjusting" by getting those inefficient businesses out of the way and the potential
for cheaper entries to market, those players who HAVE begun to play are of a higher QUALITY individual.

As we know, pool takes time to show any kind of improvement and those who HAVE recently taken up the game
are more inclined to do so with the sufficient wherewithal (a job and/or something going on in their lives) to support their endeavor.
Times are difficult right now so people have to have something going on to support themselves if they want to enjoy hobbies.

So in twenty years from now? We're going to have an industry that is more efficient, high-quality game. Just you wait!
Click to expand...

I'd agree with most of this. I guess I'd stop short of calling them a 'higher quality individual'. I've never believed that wide appeal of the general masses was necessary for this sport to be a success. I'd rather have a smaller number of dedicated lovers of the game, with new ones coming along once in a while. I realize that this makes it harder for places like mine to make a living, but it's a more enjoyable way to spend the time.
 
does the trend exclude the baseline shift, say 5% annual increase of number of web search in general?

and, what were the major impact factor behind those spikes around year end? Gift Shopping season or some reoccuring events (DCC?)
 
These are fascinating data. A few thoughts off the top of my head.

We all know pool is not where we want it to be. Neither is the US national debt. That's not really the point here. The point here is understanding the trends.

1. The major conclusion is that the following statements that we hear over and over again are WRONG: "Pool is declining." "Pool is dying." These are simply untrue. These data show the bleeding stopped 4 years ago in the US and 5+ years ago worldwide.

The bleeding has stopped.

I thing we in the pool world have perceived a continued decline because rooms have continued to close. And rooms have continued to close because the current steady-but-low interest is insufficient to keep them open. In other words, many rooms that tried to weather the storm eventually closed, but not until a few years after the decline stopped. This has given us a false impression of continuing decline.

Other conclusions are

blaming poker is probably wrong

US pool is steady, and pool worldwide might be starting to trend upward. If the latter is true, I think the US will follow.

Pool-league trend in encouraging

All in all, this is not bad news. Pool is at worst steady.

To the people replying to this thread saying this is what you expected, do you really think you a few weeks ago would have agreed to the statement: "Pool in the US has not declined at all over the last four years"?
 
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