I really enjoyed the match last night. I couldn't watch the first couple as closely as I'd like (I had my phone streaming it on my desk next to me while I worked), but was glued to the rest of it. There were definitely nerves or something going on, because the whole match changed when it got to 6-3. I think they got settled in at that point.
John showed a ton of heart, great moves, and the ability to really come with a shot when it was necessary. On the other hand, he was way too impatient, took too many risks, and his stroke fell apart when he tried to hit something hard (and he tried to hit way too many shots hard). I was particularly impressed with the way he turned around Lou's breaks. Lou would break, John would take a shot and turn the whole table around, and it would look like John had just broken the balls. His play was erratic, though - it was either absolutely brilliant or "oh god why did he do that?" awful, and not really anything in between.
Lou had a ton of patience, didn't try to do too much, and was extremely consistent with his shotmaking (as long as he wasn't looking at a long, straight-in down the rail. Granted, one of those was right after his backer had fallen off his chair, but he'd dogged another one earlier when it was a game winner). His play all night was consistently solid, but not spectacular. I didn't see any of John's flashes of brilliance, but he didn't show many of John's bad decisions, either. He played a conservative game, which really helped him against an opponent who was anything but.
It's a really interesting match because they're total opposites in terms of strengths and weaknesses. I had a blast sweating it.
8-6 in a race to 9 is hard to fade, but I think if John can learn from yesterday's experience, he still has a very good shot to take it. Most of his issues were quick fix kinds of problems - shoot softer, take what the table gives you instead of trying to run out, stop taking a swing at shots that sell out, and generally play more defensively/conservatively. He needs to protect the cue ball first and not take a shot if it doesn't. I'd like to see him be more careful with his two rail banks (several of them were more like three rails to Lou's pocket) and control his object ball speed better on the long one rails. I agreed with the commentator who said that John has the better endgame, and he seemed to out think his opponent.
Lou will definitely take it if John keeps playing risky pool. However, if John comes with the patience and mental game today that was missing yesterday, I don't think there are any quick changes Lou can make to improve his end of this. If I wasn't already at my max bet on this match, I'd be pretty tempted to put more on John today while you can get some pretty decent odds on him - he seems like a smart man who will learn from his mistakes once he's had some time away from the table to consider them.
We saw two Johns last night, and one of them is a pretty decent one pocket player who could win 3 in a row against Lou. The other's a banger who's likely to lose every game. This is all going to come down to which John shows up tonight.
