I'm not saying I agree with how the odds were dispersed. In many instances, I don't understand the bookie's logic. All I'm saying is how odds work and how he dispersed the odds is pretty sound.
Yes, if all players are equal, chances of winning are 127:1. That said, it's obvious that the players vary. Some have virtually no chance at winning so their odds can be rock bottom (say, 1000:1 even though that's probably higher than reality). Like, if, for example, there are 10 players at pro level and the remaining 118 players are beginners, the odds of winning can rest exclusively with the 10 players and the remaining 118 would share a fraction of .01%.
IMHO, Basically these bookie odds are like stocks/ shares. in listed companies.
Depends a lot on demand in betting market, when demand for player goes up the odds are shortened, eg. Darren now at 11/1 from 16/1 . Other shortened odds include Little Ko (now 20/1 from 25/1 ), Skyler (now 40/1 from 50/1)
So the odds are not a very objective measure of players chances of winning as it depends on bettors sentiments or some 'insider' info/news (like player has injury or health ssues which may or may not be true). They may first start off the odds using some measure like ranking or rating but once up , bettors demand will change the odds
IMO, the best bets are Baby Ko at 25:1 and Kazakis at 150:1. Baby Ko has a great chance of winning, and his odds compared to the other favorites are out of line, imo.
Kazakis has a much smaller chance of winning, but a chance. At 150:1, I think he has the most favorable betting odds of anyone.
How can a US player bet on this? Would any Europeans be willing to make a bet for me/us? I'd like to make both of these bets.
You are spot on about Baby Ko. He is now at 20/1. Consecutive semifinal finish in W10B and W9B and recent CBSA event (which had most top Taiwanese, Pinoys)
I would say Kazakis odds should be closer to 50. 150/1 is brutally unfair to him
Kazakis has very high chance of getting into last 8 but winning it is a tough ask. To win a major, need some past experience and finish in last 4 in majors to indicate that he has big match temperament and confidence to win big ones
Eg. Albin was W9B finalist last year and won China Open this year and suddenly, he is now one of favorites in majors
The 2 dozen or so with less than 40/1 have quite good chance of winning. Dechaine and Bergman should be in that group because of home conditions and their recent strong performances in lead up
NVB, Ralf, Rodney should also be in that group . Also Nikos because of his strong performance last year.
So in short around 30 have realistic chance of winning whole thing
BTW anyone knows who is Tammie Jones? Her odds are 750/1
