Interesting way to look at it. I like that.
I get a kick out of him beating Dennis O again. It's a very enjoyable rivalry. The more SVB beats Dennis the more I want him to keep beating Dennis just for the laugh of it.
Shane's path to the DCC 9b title?
- Thread starter gxman
- Start date
Interesting way to look at it. I like that.
I get a kick out of him beating Dennis O again. It's a very enjoyable rivalry. The more SVB beats Dennis the more I want him to keep beating Dennis just for the laugh of it.
I bet Shane could.
Percentage wise, how much of a favorite do you think Shane is in a race to 9 over each of the last five? (Busty, LV, Ignacio, Alex, and Dennis)
Because it's an easy draw, or because he's simply the best in the business?
Freddie <~~~ would like to be 65% against Dennis
I think they're lower than that, but if those are his actual chances then his chance of beating all five would be less than 19%.
First off I just quoted what was being said on the thread , I have not seen the board ,, but of corse you have to factor in his status as being the best player on this soil into the equation
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Even if he were an 80% favorite against each of them his chances of beating all five would be less than one third.
I don't think so. Just looking at the first two (78% favorite against Busty, 75% favorite against Lee Van), that means he beats Busty four out of every five sets they play, and he beats LV three out of every four sets they play.
I doubt that anyone in the world is that big of a favorite against those two guys.
I think for the cash late on home turf that's not a stretch , I highly doubt anyone's betting against it , on thier home turf or abroad in a WPA event I might drop that some , but Shane is in his comfort zone at the DCC
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Funny you say that ,I live in S.Dak And asked about getting personal plates that read
King friggin Kong
Lady says noway but you are the second guy to ask that today.:grin:
Actualy I think the gap is closing quickly , several are nipping at his heels now , Shaw MD , Kevin , Ko boys and oh there is that slacker Wu who only comes out to play in World events , who IMHO might be the most talented player the world has ever seen ,, then of of corse we have Berg n Sky who knows where thier limit is
Reyes still is all around the gold standard ,
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I'm pretty sure the easy draw comments were sarcastic, because drawing Morra and Hall in the first 3 rounds is really, really unlucky. Not to mention drawing a former US Open 9 ball champ fairly early and finishing the tournament with 7 consecutive Philipino world beaters ... No one wins the Derby with an easy draw, because that doesn't exist, however your chances are better if you don't draw guys like Mora in the 1st round or if you get a bye at some point, which Shane didn't. Crazy field, and an unbelievable run.
This is at least slightly off topic, but what a strong field at the DCC this year. It included the following world champions (just off the top of my head)
Efren
Busty
Niels
Mika
Alex
Ralph S
Big Ko
Darren
Earl
Toasty
Plus some people who have "only" won the US Open
Corey
Kevin
Jeremy
Gabe
SVB
Did I miss anyone?
Efren
Busty
Niels
Mika
Alex
Ralph S
Big Ko
Darren
Earl
Toasty
Plus some people who have "only" won the US Open
Corey
Kevin
Jeremy
Gabe
SVB
Did I miss anyone?
Johnny Archer
Really? I would say someone does it at least that well- sometimes better- every year.
Keep in mind that SVB had a buy-back option and he did use it after losing to Alex. So that changes the overall probability considerably.
Things get a little complicated factoring the buy-back and the redraw, but let's keep it simple and assume that if you do lose and buy-back, you still have to win against the same number of people. So if x is the probability Shane wins against a given Filipino and n is the number of Filipinos he has to face, then the overall probability P he will get through all n Filipinos (using or not using the buy-back option) is...
P = x^n + n*(1-x)*x^n
The first term is the chance Shane makes it through without using the buy-back (goes undefeated) and the second term is the chance he makes it through while using the buy-back (one loss).
If n=5 and plugging a few probabilities for x gives...
x = 0.5 -> P = 10.9%
x = 0.6 -> P = 23.3%
x = 0.7 -> P = 42.0%
x = 0.8 -> P = 65.5%
x = 0.9 -> P = 88.6%
So for the case that Shane is 80% likely to beat a Filipino (x = 0.8), the buy-back options he had available essentially doubles his chances that he'll make it through all 5 Filipinos.
