Siming Chen vs Donny Mills

[JB Cases]

A lot of the "chauvinists" as you and Russ are calling us, had the opinion that Siming was going to lose not because we are pigs, but because of history. That history, at least in my case, was based on seeing other TOP TOP women play with our own eyes 5 feet away from us. I watched Karen play many times in regional events in the Philly area when she was at her best in the 2000's. She was even, if maybe a slight underdog, with the top Philly players Like Eddie Abraham, Josh Brothers, and Bob Maidoff. Those guys are also a bit off their peeks today, but they would have been low to mid level pros at their peaks, like a Mike Davis speed, IMO.

So for another woman to come along and be WAY better than Karen, seemed quite improbable.

Its like when you compare Mosconi, to Harold Worst, to Buddy Hall, to Earl Strickland, to Shane. Each was the top tier in their generation. From many accounts of people that saw multiple generations, none of these top guys played "better" than any other, there are simply "more" top guys in newer generations. So with that logic, if there was a male player today that someone said was 40% BETTER than Shane, that would be super super super hard to believe, as in the last 50 years, the names I gave above were probably all coin flips if we can match them all up in their primes.

Well, that is what we had with Siming. The numbers say she is WAY better than Karen, who has stood the test of time as the top tier woman from about the late 1990's to the early 2010's. HISTORY says that's not possible.

Couple HISTORY with the FargoRate for the top Asian women being like a desserted island, and you have people like me, who you and Russ call Chavanists, to bet on Donny. It has nothing to do with we are pigs, and everything to do wiht we have a lot of HISTORY of decades of women not being anywhere near a top man.

All that said, I'm a believer that Siming is damn good, after watching her play. I do think now she will beat Donny in the long run. I also still think her and her top piers are still overrated in FargoRate, and that as a group they will shift downwards as more direct coupling happens.

The players are not overrated. That's the fundamental problem you are having. They are simply RATED with no weight given to their gender.

There are players who are in the 720ish range who play mostly against those rated well below them. They are currently accurately rated, the players below them are accurately rated. If a shift comes where those 720s become 700s then they will still be accurately rated because the numbers 700 and 720 don't mean anything unless taken in the context of all players in the system being already coupled. In other words, if you dumped 20 more 800 speed players into the system with legitimate games from legitimate sources then it would mean that Siming would still be a 780 IN COMPARISON to everyone else and her ranking along with everyone else below 800 would drop as 20 new players got slotted above her.

More data is better clearly, but at the pro level there is PLENTY of data available and is pretty much the benchmark by which everyone else can be measured.

 

[one stroke]

Is it "huge"

What was the rating "supposed" to do?

I love how everyone is now trying to decipher Fargo to poke holes in it. That's actually great because it forces Mike to defend and justify and if someone finds any holes then he can address them.

In the meantime people who think that their gut is more reliable than the data are going to lose a lot betting against the statistics. Some of them are going to have win streaks but the majority will be overall loser imo.

Well the smart better wont even consider using just Fargo in betting long sets , there are players who might be the same number that simply have no chance in long sets against another player who is always in the box for the cash ,, there are several around Chen's number they wont even consider playing ,

1

 

[JB Cases]

I gave him crap because he bet somebody else and not me. I was surprised too lol. Check gypsysoul thread in action.
Jason

Really Jay bet on Donny? Jay can speak for himself but I would ask him whether he think Fargo Ratings are accurate or whether he was still a bit cautious even though he thinks very highly of Chen's game.

Honestly the match was very close. The score reflected swings from both players alternately leading and trailing.

Either one could have caught a gear that might have made the result a blowout.

 

[JB Cases]

Ms. Chen is the product of a system that has nothing in common with players in the West.

Data is not Chauvinism. You seem to be confused. Did you think that the hockey team of the former Soviet Union were really amateurs like our US team at the time too?

I think woman who play at the pro level world wide were forced to play with the top men on a tour they would have to be subsidized to survive.

Not if they were just as strong as players who currently survive without being "subsidized". They would likely end up with about the same results and win loss percentages in events they entered.

 

[JB Cases]

Well the smart better wont even consider using just Fargo in betting long sets , there are players who might be the same number that simply have no chance in long sets against another player who is always in the box for the cash ,, there are several around Chen's number they wont even consider playing ,

1

Do you have concrete examples?

 

[Black-Balled]

I gave him crap because he bet somebody else and not me. I was surprised too lol. Check gypsysoul thread in action.
Jason

I saw that too.

 

[overlord]

You mean like the vast majority of male pros with Fargo rates under 800, who don't win 4 big tournaments a year?

Oh boy, yer really reaching there, eh?

I think you are confused. Ever since I got into pool, almost 30 years ago I've heard how women in the future will be able to compete with the men.

I brought up Derby City. Woman have earned very nominal amounts of money playing in that tournament.

My point has always been that very few men make a living playing pool and now folks on this forum are implying that the woman should compete with the men on a uni-sex tour.

I think most female players would run away from this format on account of wanting to eat.

Western players are not subsidized by the state.

 

[jasonlaus]

I think you are confused. Ever since I got into pool, almost 30 years ago I've heard how women in the future will be able to compete with the men.

I brought up Derby City. Woman have earned very nominal amounts of money playing in that tournament.

My point has always been that very few men make a living playing pool and now folks on this forum are implying that the woman should compete with the men on a uni-sex tour.

I think most female players would run away from this format on account of wanting to eat.

Western players are not subsidized by the state.

If you were the 50th best player in every event you entered would you expect to eat?
Jason

 

[jasonlaus]

I think you are confused. Ever since I got into pool, almost 30 years ago I've heard how women in the future will be able to compete with the men.

I brought up Derby City. Woman have earned very nominal amounts of money playing in that tournament.

My point has always been that very few men make a living playing pool and now folks on this forum are implying that the woman should compete with the men on a uni-sex tour.

I think most female players would run away from this format on account of wanting to eat.

Western players are not subsidized by the state.

None of these current women have played at Derby
Nobody has said they should be on the nonexistent mens tour
We're not talking about most women, we're talking about 1 woman.
What does being subsidized have to do with anything? It doesnt make you a champion - that takes years and years of training and dedication
Jason

 

[iusedtoberich]

If any of you boys would like to put your money where your mouth is on the accuracy of TOP women's FargoRate, here is your oppertunity. Head on over to the action room

*No knocking in the action room thread, either bet or don't. Its actually part of the action room rules. Knock all you want in this thread, instead*

https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?p=6342043#post6342043

 

[pt109]

Well the smart better wont even consider using just Fargo in betting long sets , there are players who might be the same number that simply have no chance in long sets against another player who is always in the box for the cash ,, there are several around Chen's number they wont even consider playing ,

1

You know FargoRate is based on tournament matches, right?
....I think some roadplayers might play a long session better than tournament players....
...Chris Bartram is one that comes to mind when he was in action....
...but Mike Page isn’t clocking the action where a session might last for 20 hours...
...and FargoRate won’t make you breakfast in the morning either....
...is that one of the flaws you’re digging for?

 

[spartan]

2. The "battle of the sexes" nonsense was settled back during the IPT in 2006. The North American Open was clear evidence the women cannot play to the level men can. The majority of all top female pros played in that tournament, 8 ball, round-robin format. They got crushed. I was there, it was difficult to watch. There was no aspect of the game where they had parity with the men except for maybe a completely wide open table with no obstacles and medium to short range shots. They would run that out. But then again, so could an APA 6.

This is the dumb ignoramus post of day. Obviously, you have been napping under the cave and clueless that the top women play at higher level now compared to 13 years ago.
You are probably still using such a phone

 

[iusedtoberich]

The players are not overrated. That's the fundamental problem you are having. They are simply RATED with no weight given to their gender.

There are players who are in the 720ish range who play mostly against those rated well below them. They are currently accurately rated, the players below them are accurately rated. If a shift comes where those 720s become 700s then they will still be accurately rated because the numbers 700 and 720 don't mean anything unless taken in the context of all players in the system being already coupled. In other words, if you dumped 20 more 800 speed players into the system with legitimate games from legitimate sources then it would mean that Siming would still be a 780 IN COMPARISON to everyone else and her ranking along with everyone else below 800 would drop as 20 new players got slotted above her.

More data is better clearly, but at the pro level there is PLENTY of data available and is pretty much the benchmark by which everyone else can be measured.

No. The fundamental thing I am saying is that the direct coupling between a small group of players is weak, and as that coupling becomes stronger, the ratings for said group will shift. The group in THIS case is the TOP Asian women. But it is immaterial they are women or Asian. The relavent part is that small group is very isolated.

Like many examples were giving in the past 3 or 4 years since Mike introduced us to Fargo, there have been shifts with small groups of players as their coupling got stronger. Even his OWN room of players shifted a bit when their data was merged with national data.

I'm not challenging the legitimacy of the system. I'm not challenging men vs women. I'm stating that as more direct coupling happens, the data will settle in better. And I'm predicting that the women will drop a few notches as this happens.

*Edited for grammar

 

[iusedtoberich]

You know FargoRate is based on tournament matches, right?
....I think some roadplayers might play a long session better than tournament players....
...Chris Bartram is one that comes to mind when he was in action....
...but Mike Page isn’t clocking the action where a session might last for 20 hours...
...and FargoRate won’t make you breakfast in the morning either....
...is that one of the flaws you’re digging for?

I am pretty sure Mike puts in gambling matches if they are publicly announced, and/or streamed. Case in point for the match at hand If FargoRate was around when Tar was doing races to 100, you can bet your hat all of those results would be in FargoRate. Hell, maybe they even are currently depending on how back in time his database goes.

 

[pt109]

I am pretty sure Mike puts in gambling matches if they are publicly announced, and/or streamed. Case in point for the match at hand If FargoRate was around when Tar was doing races to 100, you can bet your hat all of those results would be in FargoRate. Hell, maybe they even are currently depending on how back in time his database goes.

Those are still matches....I’m talking sessions where they play till somebody runs ou of $.

 

[one stroke]

You know FargoRate is based on tournament matches, right?
....I think some roadplayers might play a long session better than tournament players....
...Chris Bartram is one that comes to mind when he was in action....
...but Mike Page isn’t clocking the action where a session might last for 20 hours...
...and FargoRate won’t make you breakfast in the morning either....
...is that one of the flaws you’re digging for?

I am very well aware of how that data is compiled ill try to remember that while I am eating steak and eggs in the morning and throw it out like my morning paper when it comes to long races but thanks again for reminding me


1

 

[jasonlaus]

If any of you boys would like to put your money where your mouth is on the accuracy of TOP women's FargoRate, here is your oppertunity. Head on over to the action room

*No knocking in the action room thread, either bet or don't. Its actually part of the action room rules. Knock all you want in this thread, instead*

https://forums.azbilliards.com/showthread.php?p=6342043#post6342043

If Siming quits or dies you have already won the bet without the next 3 players moving at all.
Jason

 

[mikepage]

No. The fundamental thing I am saying is that the direct coupling between a small group of players is weak, and as that coupling becomes stronger, the ratings for said group will shift. The group in THIS case is the TOP Asian women. But it is immaterial they are women or Asian. The relavent part is that small group is very isolated.

Like many examples were giving in the past 3 or 4 years since Mike introduced us to Fargo, there have been shifts with small groups of players as their coupling got stronger. Even his OWN room of players shifted a bit when their data was merged with national data.

I'm not challenging the legitimacy of the system. I'm not challenging men vs women. I'm stating that as more direct coupling happens, the data will settle in better. And I'm predicting that the women will drop a few notches as this happens.

*Edited for grammar

We've been progressively adding more and more coupling data over the last 3 years. This is the drift of the top-3-women average. I think it is just noisy fluctuation. But I could be wrong. You can see the latest correct as the most recent two dots. You are betting it will be below the purple triangle. It could be. But I don't know why you think that is more likely than not.

 

[iusedtoberich]

If Siming quits or dies you have already won the bet without the next 3 players moving at all.
Jason

ha ha. Conversely, there is a large gap between current #1 Siming at 780 and #3 Xiao-Fang at 762. If a 17 year old today gets close to Siming (or even passes her) when she is 21 in 4 years, and bumps out Xiao-Fang, that is probably a sure win for you. Or if the same happens with the Russian woman who many are saying plays well above her current 700ish rating.

 

[iusedtoberich]

We've been progressively adding more and more coupling data over the last 3 years. This is the drift of the top-3-women average. I think it is just noisy fluctuation. But I could be wrong. You can see the latest correct as the most recent two dots. You are betting it will be below the purple triangle. It could be. But I don't know why you think that is more likely than not.

Very interesting, thanks for sharing.

Well, the main reason I am betting is like many others on here, I think Siming plays jam up, but below the other 783 men. [based on what I saw with my own eyes]. And, if my observation is true, there is a plausible mathematical explanation of it [direct coupling of this group].

So, I'm betting with my eyes, and with my brain, because my brain offers an explanation.

Again, thanks for all you do!