USA vs Russia 9 Ball Money Match

The_JV said:
Winner, winner, chicken dinner.... :LOL:

Don't you just love it when the stats/math worked out so cleanly...

Nice call...(y)
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Thank you. Thank you.
Too bad I don't gamble. :ROFLMAO:

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DieselPete said:
... To keep it simple, could we say something like this?:

There were X games played. In those games there were Y games that included at least one intentional safety. When Fedor played the first intentional safety, he won R percent. When Justin played the first intentional safety, he won P percent. ...
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Total games in the match = 169
Games with one or more intentional safeties = 50
Percentage of games Gorst won after he played the first intentional safety = 41% (14 of 34)
Percentage of games Bergman won after he played the first intentional safety = 44% (7 of 16)
 
AtLarge said:
Total games in the match = 169
Games with one or more intentional safeties = 50
Percentage of games Gorst won after he played the first intentional safety = 41% (14 of 34)
Percentage of games Bergman won after he played the first intentional safety = 44% (7 of 16)
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Awesome. I love data.

That might challenge, at least in one way, the idea that Gorst has an advantage when a rack isn't just a clean run-out attempt. What I find really interesting though, is that in the case of either player if they played the first safety they were more likely to lose than to win that rack.

I would have had that completely backward. I would have guessed that the player of the first safety would have a winning percentage of 60%+, not lose nearly 60%.
 
Bergman should have only agreed to play 10 or 8 ball and even then he’d probably still be an underdog. Wonder why he agreed to a game that would heavily favor his opponent.

I know you have to have confidence in your ability but you also have to be realistic. He also agreed to a bad match against Orcullo months ago too.
 
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westcoast said:
Bergman should have only agreed to play 10 or 8 ball and even then he’d probably still be an underdog. Wonder why he agreed to a game that would heavily favor his opponent.

I know you have to have confidence in your ability but you also have to be realistic. He also agreed to a bad match against Orcullo months ago too.
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He likely wasn’t betting his own money and I’m guessing both guys got a percentage of the PPV take. He gets a small payday and gets to try his hand against one of the best in the world, for little to no risk.

8 ball would have offered Berg the best shot at keeping it close, imo.
 
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westcoast said:
Bergman should have only agreed to play 10 or 8 ball and even then he’d probably still be an underdog. Wonder why he agreed to a game that would heavily favor his opponent.

I know you have to have confidence in your ability but you also have to be realistic. He also agreed to a bad match against Orcullo months ago too.
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I think the break becomes an even bigger advantage for Fedor if they play ten ball. Justin knew that and acted accordingly.

As for eight ball, I have no idea what Fedor's speed is.
 
sjm said:
I think the break becomes an even bigger advantage for Fedor if they play ten ball. Justin knew that and acted accordingly.

As for eight ball, I have no idea what Fedor's speed is.
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I see. I thought Gorst had more of an advantage playing 9 ball- with the 9 on the spot with the 3 point rule because they play with those rules more in Europe and that they don't play 10 ball as much in Europe, but maybe I'm wrong about the frequency of playing 10 ball in Europe.
 
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westcoast said:
I see. I thought Gorst had more of an advantage playing 9 ball- with the 9 on the spot with the 3 point rule because they play with those rules more in Europe and that they don't play 10 ball as much in Europe, but maybe I'm wrong about the frequency of playing 10 ball in Europe.
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You definitely make a good point here, and I noted in Post #4 of this thread that Gorst would likely not be slowed down much by this breaking rule. The reason that Gorst might be tougher in 10-ball is that Justin's ten ball break is a greater weakness relative to that of Fedor, who has a truly phenomenal break in both games. On the ten footer at the Bigfoot at Derby City, Fedor finished second in 2018 and third in 2019, meaning he's already had success in ten ball against the most elite.
 
sjm said:
You definitely make a good point here, and I noted in Post #4 of this thread that Gorst would likely not be slowed down much by this breaking rule. The reason that Gorst might be tougher in 10-ball is that Justin's ten ball break is a greater weakness relative to that of Fedor, who has a truly phenomenal break in both games. On the ten footer at the Bigfoot at Derby City, Fedor finished second in 2018 and third in 2019, meaning he's already had success in ten ball against the most elite.
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His home table is 10'

If they played 10ball on the 10' Fedor wins by 40+
 
DieselPete said:
... What I find really interesting though, is that in the case of either player if they played the first safety they were more likely to lose than to win that rack.

I would have had that completely backward. I would have guessed that the player of the first safety would have a winning percentage of 60%+, not lose nearly 60%.
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I wouldn't generalize the result from this one match; too little info. Even here, Gorst did win more than half of the first half of his "played-first-safety" games, but it went strongly in the other direction after that. Maybe I'll check this result from a few other events.
 
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