Lag winner correlated with match winner?

iusedtoberich

iusedtoberich

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
Has anyone ever seen if the lag winner can predict the match winner? The lag is of course a skill shot, so one could argue the higher skilled player would win both the lag and the match. A pure time wasting question, but it would be interesting if it was true:)
 
I'm going to guess there's absolutely no correlation (at least between pro players).

Even the break isn't much of a predictor...even with the pros.
 
iusedtoberich said:
Has anyone ever seen if the lag winner can predict the match winner? The lag is of course a skill shot, so one could argue the higher skilled player would win both the lag and the match. A pure time wasting question, but it would be interesting if it was true:)
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I've been posting info on the lag in the Mosconi Cup events for many years. Here is the post from my 2022 Cup thread, showing results on several lag-related measures for the last 10 Cups. https://forums.azbilliards.com/thre...mosconi-cup-nov-dec-2022.548763/#post-7412944

For those 10 Cups combined, the winner of the lag won 103 of the 164 matches played, about 63%. Only once was the percentage less than 50% -- 2019 when the side winning the lag won only 7 of the 19 matches. At the other extreme, in 2017 all 15 matches were won by the side that won the lag.
 
AtLarge said:
I've been posting info on the lag in the Mosconi Cup events for many years. Here is the post from my 2022 Cup thread, showing results on several lag-related measures for the last 10 Cups. https://forums.azbilliards.com/thre...mosconi-cup-nov-dec-2022.548763/#post-7412944

For those 10 Cups combined, the winner of the lag won 103 of the 164 matches played, about 63%. Only once was the percentage less than 50% -- 2019 when the side winning the lag won only 7 of the 19 matches. At the other extreme, in 2017 all 15 matches were won by the side that won the lag.
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Wow. 63% is HUGE!!!!
 
What are the stats for 9 ball breaks? I recall one of those long races between SVB and Dennis and when Dennis broke, he only one 51% of those games (I can't recall the exact percentage but it was very close to 50%). I would have guessed the break was a significant advantage for pros, but the numbers aren't that overwhelming.
 
iusedtoberich said:
Wow. 63% is HUGE!!!!
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But we also have to keep in mind it's a race to 5 alternate break. In that format, it's a lot harder to over-come a one game deficit than with say a race to 9 or 11.

Before Fargo or much stat keeping, AccuStats stats and Pat Fleming were of a mind set that the break, thus the lag, had no benefit to the match or game winner in the long term statistics.
 
bbb said:
what are the stats for onepocket?
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Regarding 1-Pocket matches won by the winner of the lag

This percentage fluctuates a lot from event to event in my stats because of either the small number of matches that were streamed or the small number I watched.

• For the 14 DCC and Southern Classic events from 2011-2023 combined, 81 wins in 163 matches = 50%
About half of those matches were from the 5 most recent DCC events, and the result for those 5 was 52% (42 of 81), with highs of 67% (12 of 18) in two of the 5 years and lows of 38% (6 of 16) in two of the other years.​

• For 7 1-Pkt. tournaments from 2018-2022, 33 wins in 65 matches = 50%
 
hang-the-9 said:
But we also have to keep in mind it's a race to 5 alternate break. In that format, it's a lot harder to over-come a one game deficit than with say a race to 9 or 11. ...
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Agree. And, with the short races in 1-Pkt., it is rather surprising that the stat there isn't higher.
 
hang-the-9 said:
But we also have to keep in mind it's a race to 5 alternate break. In that format, it's a lot harder to over-come a one game deficit than with say a race to 9 or 11.

Before Fargo or much stat keeping, AccuStats stats and Pat Fleming were of a mind set that the break, thus the lag, had no benefit to the match or game winner in the long term statistics.
Click to expand...
If you win the lag in an alternate break format, you will be breaking at hill-hill. You will get 5 breaks to your opponent's 4, which seems like a significant advantage. I believe Mike Page dug into the influence of break format and found little to no difference, although I don't believe the lag was part of the analysis.
 
AtLarge said:
Agree. And, with the short races in 1-Pkt., it is rather surprising that the stat there isn't higher.
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Yes, it's quite surprising. It seems like the break is a bigger advantage in 1 pocket than 8, 9, or 10 ball. It may just be the shorter races mean limited chances to "break serve" so it becomes relatively more important.
 
AtLarge said:
I've been posting info on the lag in the Mosconi Cup events for many years. Here is the post from my 2022 Cup thread, showing results on several lag-related measures for the last 10 Cups. https://forums.azbilliards.com/thre...mosconi-cup-nov-dec-2022.548763/#post-7412944

For those 10 Cups combined, the winner of the lag won 103 of the 164 matches played, about 63%. Only once was the percentage less than 50% -- 2019 when the side winning the lag won only 7 of the 19 matches. At the other extreme, in 2017 all 15 matches were won by the side that won the lag.
Click to expand...
Any determination on the lag equating to player skill and prevailing on that basis? Or, is it just a coin flip that determines who gets out the gate first?
 
AtLarge said:
Regarding 1-Pocket matches won by the winner of the lag

This percentage fluctuates a lot from event to event in my stats because of either the small number of matches that were streamed or the small number I watched.

• For the 14 DCC and Southern Classic events from 2011-2023 combined, 81 wins in 163 matches = 50%
About half of those matches were from the 5 most recent DCC events, and the result for those 5 was 52% (42 of 81), with highs of 67% (12 of 18) in two of the 5 years and lows of 38% (6 of 16) in two of the other years.​

• For 7 1-Pkt. tournaments from 2018-2022, 33 wins in 65 matches = 50%
Click to expand...
thanks ALOT for posting these stats....:love:
i would have expected a higher win % from the winner of the lag since hill hill the lag winner is breaking
 
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