what?
European Open 2025, Sarajevo, March 11-16
- Thread starter Bob Jewett
- Start date
what?
✂️ morra-pagulayan
15 seconds · Clipped by Mark James · Original video "Alex Pagulayan vs John Morra 2 at the Clash of the Titans" by InsidePOOLmag
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Narrow box, cut with more speed, run the ball. There's gotta be angles that'll work.
Let’s work out your extreme example for a race to 3.
Fedor and Shane both run out given the opportunity. Fedor has figured out the break and Shane hasn’t. So Fedor wins every game he breaks, and when Shane breaks they split the games evenly.
Alternate break:
When Fedor wins the flip, which happens half the time, he always wins the set. Half of those sets he won games 1, 2, and 3. A quarter of the time he won games 1, 3, and 4. And a quarter of the time he won games 1, 3, and 5.
When Fedor loses the flip, he wins 87.5% of the sets
25% WWW (.5)(1)(.5).
25% LWWW (.5)(1)(.5)(1)
25% WWLW (.5)(1)(.5)(1)
12.5% LWLWW (.5)(1)(.5)(1)(.5)
So winning all the sets when he wins the flip and 87.5% when he loses the flip means Fedor wins 93.75% of the sets overall with alternate break.
Winner Breaks
Here if Fedor ever gets to break he runs out the set. So once again he wins all the sets for which he won the flip.
When he loses the flip, he wins the set first time he wins a game
50% WWW (.5)(1)(1)
25% LWWW (.5)(.5)(1)(1)
12.5% LLWWW (.5)(.5)(.5)(1)(1)
Here again, Fedor wins 87.5% of the sets when he loses the flip and therefore 93.75% of the sets overall with winner break
Loser Breaks
Same same
Forgive me, is your explanation using races to 3, or 4, or 5...?
So to make your argument you're assigning an advantage to Fedor. Is it safe to assume that the winning % flips 180 if you provide that advantage to SVB rather than Fedor..? Even though SVB's fargo a hair lower?
Again, the argument revolves around the premise that SVB's break fails him, and Fedor's is flawless. Ok, I can get on board with that.
Let consider this... Use a normal championship level race to 11. Just in an effort to make the argument more realistic. You're the numbers guy so I'll leave the math to you. I'm going to use Filler vs SVB just for sake of a larger variance in fargo. 857 vs 843 (14)
Both players are equally dialed in on the break and are 100% to get an opportunity to get an opening shot. Filler's chances of running the subsequent rack are 57%. However each consecutive rack his odds drop by 5%. SVB on the other hand has a 43% chance of completing the break'n'run and his chances drop by 19% for each subsequent rack, (the same 5% plus the difference in rating). These odds reset once the "package" has ended.
I have no idea what the end result will be. However I'm guessing the Alt break format will result in a much closer race. Considering the increased diminishing odds of SVB continuing a winning streak. The scenario I've scripted is a reality of how players at different levels stack up. While single rack odds are 'close', the odds in subsequent racks separate players. I think the harsher but more accurate reality is that the weaker player would suffer a greater number than the 5% constant I used for both. However, I didn't want to guess at too much
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i was wondering what would happen when someone began to explain the odds to this crowd
This is analyzing a race to 3. It gets to game 5 when the set score is 3 to 2.
ah yes, thank you... senior moment.
Looking forward to your analysis of my diminishing odds scenario.
I think you are holding the analysis pillow ;-)
lol... maybe..? I'm not so sure.
I do know I don't subscribe to the ideal that the results of winner break vs Alt break formats will be identical. Unfortunately, I believe like all things wherein 'stats logic' is applied. The outlier is washed away by what usually happens. In this case the outlier is Alt break format and 'usually' is what the vast majority of the statistics are derived from, winner break.
Just saw an interesting clip of a CJ Wiley interview. Basically said he wouldn't play 9 ball for money today because with rack your own and template racks, every top player has the break figured out...said that is the reason you don't see very many big money 9 ball matches anymore...and that with rack your own and template racking, they should just call it 6 or 7 ball.
I think the number he estimated was that back in the day, even on a good breaking day, most pros were making a ball 70% of the time, but that it was usually lower. Now, the pros not only expect to make the wing ball, but have a pretty good idea where the other balls will end up...
I don't know how accurate his estimates and percentages are, but he didn;t seem to be a fan of today's 9 ball.
I think the number he estimated was that back in the day, even on a good breaking day, most pros were making a ball 70% of the time, but that it was usually lower. Now, the pros not only expect to make the wing ball, but have a pretty good idea where the other balls will end up...
I don't know how accurate his estimates and percentages are, but he didn;t seem to be a fan of today's 9 ball.
Atorontopoolplayer
Active member
How much of "today's" 9 ball is he even watching? As this does not really describe the match room break at all.
Don't know. Just saw the YT interview and thought it was interesting. I don't know that he was even thinking MR, as he was mostly talking about template and rack your own, and specifically mentioned money matches.
But even many MR matches, it seems like the wing ball is going in the side pocket the majority of the time, but again AT LArge would be the authority on how often that actually happens.
CJ is way out of touch with 9ball at the highest competitive level today, which means Matchroom events. Rack your own is dead and buried at the Matchroom majors and nobody is stringing racks together much, in large part because nobody really knows exactly where the cue ball will wind up with the cut break used by most of the elite. In CJs prime, the best could break from anywhere in the kitchen and they knew how to park the cue ball in the middle of the table.
The break and run rate at the European Open was 23%, and it was about the same in CJs prime.
Atorontopoolplayer
Active member
The "wing" ball and the 1 ball are different balls. And the 1 is going in the side yes, but completely different layouts and level of predictability with this break since you do not know where the 2 will end up.
So I mean no it's not the same with MR break at all
I imagine you meant the 1-ball in the side pocket rather than the wing ball. And, yes, with the Matchroom breaking format, the 1-ball is pocketed in the side pocket on the opposite side of the table from the breaker a high percentage of the time. In the Mosconi Cup 3½ months ago, it was done on 87% of the breaks (including fouled breaks). In the 17 matches I tracked in last week's European Open, it was done on 68% of the breaks.
When the wing ball on the same side of the table as the breaker is pocketed in the foot pocket on the same side, it is often kicked in by other balls rather than going in directly.
Thanks for the clarification...yes, 1 in the side...
the cue ball and the 2-ball is what makes it difficult in this format. and of course the ability to adapt to how the specific table breaks, coming from an another table or from another country. lots of variables, and also luck, to contend with. when people talk about who is the best breaker in WNT they're really talking about adapting and consistency.
I'll try this again....
Can you big brain the following please. My uneducated guess is that if we run the scenario below a handful of times. The Alt break results will favour the weaker player. In comparison to winner break format. I determine this merely because the 857 player has slightly better odds to increase a lead then the weaker player has to recover from that lead. ...and the inverse. The weaker player is less likely to establish a lead that the stronger player can't recover from.
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Let consider this... Use a normal championship level race to 11. Just in an effort to make the argument more realistic. You're the numbers guy so I'll leave the math to you. I'm going to use Filler vs SVB just for sake of a larger variance in fargo. 857 vs 843 (14)
Both players are equally dialed in on the break and are 100% to get an opportunity to get an opening shot. Filler's chances of running the subsequent rack are 57%. However each consecutive rack his odds drop by 5%. SVB on the other hand has a 43% chance of completing the break'n'run and his chances drop by 19% for each subsequent rack, (the same 5% plus the difference in rating). These odds reset once the "package" has ended.
I have no idea what the end result will be. However I'm guessing the Alt break format will result in a much closer race. Considering the increased diminishing odds of SVB continuing a winning streak. The scenario I've scripted is a reality of how players at different levels stack up. While single rack odds are 'close', the odds in subsequent racks separate players. I think the harsher but more accurate reality is that the weaker player would suffer a greater number than the 5% constant I used for both. However, I didn't want to guess at too much
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With SVB playing ten ball race to 120 over say 3/4 days, you'd expect him to put a 6 pac or more together at least 3 times. I believe he did so against Gorst in their match. I don't believe that any of the others can replicate that stat consistently. That being said, he'd be expected to win those matches against all comers right now in his career.