Curious-Do Fargo ratings differ by location?

[MattPoland]

On the topic of "islands", I wonder more about the mathematics of it. Like in a population the size of the FargoRate database, what would constitute an island? Would it be a social graph of players in the system and have played each other and have zero connections to the rest of the tapestry of players? How do you analyze that. By the size of the island? I have to imagine there's a fair number of 2-player islands where their only games in the system was a single Salotto match they played against each other. Maybe you throw that island out because it's size 2? Maybe you throw it out because no player in that island has an established rating. How many islands are there size 3? Size 4? How big does the island get in the FargoRate database? Would you be able to say there are zero islands size 20 or 50?

And lets get realistic. Maybe we assume in an island of 20 that someone played at least one game outside the island. So what now constitutes an island? Is there a mathematical attribute you can apply to the island for its overall connectedness? How much connectedness does it take for it to no longer be an island? Is 5 players having each played 20-30 games outside the island sufficient? Is that a static number to anchor the island into the larger tapestry? Or is it proportional to the size of the island? I'm assuming 5 players playing 20-30 games outside the island is a stronger connection than 1 player playing 150 games outside the island. Is there a mathematical way to assigned connectedness of the island that accounts for the diversity of connections. I imagine if those 5 players played all 20-30 games against the same person then that's not as strong as if they played their games against a good variety of players at different ratings. So realistically, any island we have will have fuzzy edges to it. Does that make identifying islands impossible? Or are there algorithms that can do it?

If someone poses a hypothetical of a remote town with 70 players (or less). Fairly stable. Few enter or leave. Maybe 1 team goes to nationals and plays others but most everyone else stays home. Almost nobody travels to other areas to play in regional tournaments. Could FargoRate find if that situation existed in their database? Could they prove demonstrably that it does not exist in their database? If it does exist, could FargoRate attribute a confidence score to how globally anchored those players ratings are? If so, I think that would make for an extremely interesting video.

 

[8onthebreak]

I believe that the Fargo rating system overall is good and fair. Sure there are sandbaggers. sure there are average players who play out of their head when they manage to focus or practice a lot over a weekend...or get a blast of confidence by whipping a lower player before another match. This is what I think a lot of players don't get. Humans aren't machines, their playability will increase and decrease even in the same day due to so many factors, emotional, physical, mental, luck, laws of average, ...you name it. But relating to your question, ...

I am in Myrtle Beach and the level of play has come up a lot. The top talent has kept their titles it seems, but there are massive incoming amounts of "good players" (500-600 Fargo rate) and it FEELS like it now requires weekly practice to maintain a 600 Fargo where it used to be quite easy to maintain just playing 1 night a week. Our area has had a grotesque amount of growth so maybe it's abnormal or accentuated. So in short, I think it does differ by area, since I feel our area has differed even within itself.

BTW, a 650 would whip my ass, and most places, would do the same to the entire pool room if he's playing at his level. That is an EXCELLENT player. There are better players of course, but they don't come out unless there's money on the light. One phone call, and 15 minutes later, and you got someone better!

 

[9BallKY]

10 per million population sounds about right.

I know a town that has a population of 2000 and there are 4 players with a Fargo over 600. There are 2 older guys who used to be over 600 but due to age and health problems they have fell down to about 580 now.

There’s also a young guy who doesn’t have a rating that plays over 600 speed. He doesn’t play much anymore.

 

[garczar]

I believe that the Fargo rating system overall is good and fair. Sure there are sandbaggers. sure there are average players who play out of their head when they manage to focus or practice a lot over a weekend...or get a blast of confidence by whipping a lower player before another match. This is what I think a lot of players don't get. Humans aren't machines, their playability will increase and decrease even in the same day due to so many factors, emotional, physical, mental, luck, laws of average, ...you name it. But relating to your question, ...

I am in Myrtle Beach and the level of play has come up a lot. The top talent has kept their titles it seems, but there are massive incoming amounts of "good players" (500-600 Fargo rate) and it FEELS like it now requires weekly practice to maintain a 600 Fargo where it used to be quite easy to maintain just playing 1 night a week. Our area has had a grotesque amount of growth so maybe it's abnormal or accentuated. So in short, I think it does differ by area, since I feel our area has differed even within itself.

BTW, a 650 would whip my ass, and most places, would do the same to the entire pool room if he's playing at his level. That is an EXCELLENT player. There are better players of course, but they don't come out unless there's money on the light. One phone call, and 15 minutes later, and you got someone better!

You make ZERO mention of player's robustness. This is HUGE and is THE key factor here. Once one's robustness is high enough(200 min but 3-500 is better) it won't matter where you come from.

 

[Jimmorrison]

“10 per million population “ means less than 3500 people in the entire U.S. Pool is an easy game, unless you are actually trying to be good at it.

 

[mikepage]

On the topic of "islands", I wonder more about the mathematics of it. Like in a population the size of the FargoRate database, what would constitute an island? Would it be a social graph of players in the system and have played each other and have zero connections to the rest of the tapestry of players? How do you analyze that. By the size of the island? I have to imagine there's a fair number of 2-player islands where their only games in the system was a single Salotto match they played against each other. Maybe you throw that island out because it's size 2? Maybe you throw it out because no player in that island has an established rating. How many islands are there size 3? Size 4? How big does the island get in the FargoRate database? Would you be able to say there are zero islands size 20 or 50?

We would not be able to say that (zero islands 20 or 50). Islands are not a very big problem overall, though. Even places that seem to be remote for which the vast majority have not played elsewhere tend to be more coupled than people might guess. We generally don't get islands in North America that include stronger players. That is, they are mostly beginners.

Here are a few scenarios.

(1) As you suggest, a pair of or a small group of friends who play Salotto matches against one another. They can get established ratings but we really don't know how they play other than compared to one another.

(2) New leagues that are made up of low-level players, particularly in areas we are thin. For example, a retirement community in Northwest Georgia gets some tables and starts a coed USAPL league, There are probably a few people who played APA years ago and maybe nobody who's every played a tournament.

(3) We are at more risk outside of North America, perhaps in countries where we have only really gathered data for national-level players and then somebody starts a league or we start gathering local tournaments.

And lets get realistic. Maybe we assume in an island of 20 that someone played at least one game outside the island. So what now constitutes an island? Is there a mathematical attribute you can apply to the island for its overall connectedness? How much connectedness does it take for it to no longer be an island? Is 5 players having each played 20-30 games outside the island sufficient? Is that a static number to anchor the island into the larger tapestry? Or is it proportional to the size of the island?

It is not proportional to the size of the Island. It's roughly the total number of games of coupling independent of the size of the island. The island could have thousands of people and if 20 of them play 20 games each elsewhere, you have 400 games of coupling. Then the uncertainty in the coupling is much like the uncertainty we would expect in the rating of a single player with robustness of 400. If we imagine the player with a robustness of 400 has a rating uncertainty of, say, 15 points, then that may be the uncertainty we can expect in the average rating of the group due to the weak coupling.

I'm assuming 5 players playing 20-30 games outside the island is a stronger connection than 1 player playing 150 games outside the island.

Yes, much like for your own record. Your rating for your 150 games has less uncertainty if you played a variety of opponents preferably from different areas.

Is there a mathematical way to assigned connectedness of the island that accounts for the diversity of connections. I imagine if those 5 players played all 20-30 games against the same person then that's not as strong as if they played their games against a good variety of players at different ratings. So realistically, any island we have will have fuzzy edges to it. Does that make identifying islands impossible? Or are there algorithms that can do it?

There are ways to do it, but it's hard. When you say "good variety of players at different ratings," it is not so much rating variety that you want as those 5 ratings being independent of one another. The uncertainty in the average opponent rating is lower when the five opponents come from different groups/areas.

If someone poses a hypothetical of a remote town with 70 players (or less). Fairly stable. Few enter or leave. Maybe 1 team goes to nationals and plays others but most everyone else stays home. Almost nobody travels to other areas to play in regional tournaments. Could FargoRate find if that situation existed in their database? Could they prove demonstrably that it does not exist in their database? If it does exist, could FargoRate attribute a confidence score to how globally anchored those players ratings are? If so, I think that would make for an extremely interesting video.

We are not very far along on this. There are things we can do when we suspect that 70-player group is an island or is just loosely coupled to the rest of the world, though. We can introduce some fake coupling and see what the response of the whole group is, for instance.

 

[jasonlaus]

Open play is the only system that is tamper proof. It is play your best, or be elimated.

Today in Arizona the better players, face the same discrimination.

Most Tournments are for the recreational players.

As Fargo increases, so do opportunities to compete diminish.

It's a business, it's not meant to support a couple "pro" players

 

[CocoboloCowboy]

It's a business, it's not meant to support a couple "pro" players

Room or Venue Owner is doing Pool to make money for self, not to support Pro Pool Player clearing out their tournaments. But what ever system you use, they are all broken.

Friend had small bar in Peoria AZ, 4 Bar Boxes, he was approached by Captain of Very Good League Team who said if you do all this for our team. You can be our HOME ROOM. Dave Sid what is in it for me?

Pay league fees, let you playin my Bar Boxes for Fee, Team Shirts paid for by Me, your Vegas Trip BCA TEAM ENTRE FEES on Me.

But I get noting but your team leaching off me.

 

[jasonlaus]

Room or Venue Owner is doing Pool to make money for self, not to support Pro Pool Player clearing out their tournaments. But what ever system you use, they are all broken.

Friend had small bar in Peoria AZ, 4 Bar Boxes, he was approached by Captain of Very Good League Team who said if you do all this for our team. You can be our HOME ROOM. Dave Sid what is in it for me?

Pay league fees, let you playin my Bar Boxes for Fee, Team Shirts paid for by Me, your Vegas Trip BCA TEAM ENTRE FEES on Me.

But I get noting but your team leaching off me.

I lived there, beat a couple 10+1s gambling even - one of them cried to whoever does the ratings out there.

Ratings had nothing to do with it, he thought he was stealing and cried when I destroyed him playing even. To be fair, he didn't get many chances.

The other one sent me places to play where the person had $$$ but didn't get out to play with all the clowns.

You can keep saying Fargo is a broken system all you want, doesn't make it so.

 

[CocoboloCowboy]

You can keep saying Fargo is a broken system all you want, doesn't make it so.

Well Bar, Sports Bar & Room owners use Rating system to attract Recreation player to their ev ents.

They don't allow better player to participate. So getting better, stronger, or improving your FARGO closes event to you.

Well Bar, Sports Bar & Room owners rifght to say you too good to be in my event. They want to protect income stream.

Recrearion Players, are the one who consume food, booze, beer, etc. That pay bills.

 

[straightline]

You make ZERO mention of player's robustness. This is HUGE and is THE key factor here. Once one's robustness is high enough(200 min but 3-500 is better) it won't matter where you come from.

Still won't identify or prevent the guys who are sailing through their level. A smart, complex person could _portray_ a mid 5s player for amusement while a legit mid 5 might be playing his heart out. Same mid 5 numbers. This same amusement mid 5er might actually gamble in the 7s.
Nuther trick, the hustler in this arrangement will try to get you on a card table, further hiding his pool speed which, is probably incidental to him.
<robustness>

 

[David in FL]

Well Bar, Sports Bar & Room owners use Rating system to attract Recreation player to their ev ents.

They don't allow better player to participate. So getting better, stronger, or improving your FARGO closes event to you.

Well Bar, Sports Bar & Room owners rifght to say you too good to be in my event. They want to protect income stream.

Recrearion Players, are the one who consume food, booze, beer, etc. That pay bills.

Not really.

The most popular Fargo limited tournaments are either U 500 or U 600.

Until your "recreational" player exceeds a 600 Fargo, there are an absolute TON of tournament/events available to them.

The vast majority will never sniff the low 500's, let alone 600...

 

[Cartune]

These are the conversations I was trying to evoke. thank you for your opinions!

 

[CocoboloCowboy]

Not really.

The most popular Fargo limited tournaments are either U 500 or U 600.

Until your "recreational" player exceeds a 600 Fargo, there are an absolute TON of tournament/events available to them.

The vast majority will never sniff the low 500's, let alone 600...

Define skill level of 500-600.

UNDER old AZ System the DEATH NUMBER was 9 RATING, it was an achievement that ment FEW Opportunities to play.

 

[garczar]

Not really.

The most popular Fargo limited tournaments are either U 500 or U 600.

Until your "recreational" player exceeds a 600 Fargo, there are an absolute TON of tournament/events available to them.

The vast majority will never sniff the low 500's, let alone 600...

Coco is old and out-of-touch with current pool. Simple as that. If someone mentions a Fargo tournament he's packing his luggage for a trip to the Dakota's.

 

[iusedtoberich]

Define skill level of 500-600.

UNDER old AZ System the DEATH NUMBER was 9 RATING, it was an achievement that ment FEW Opportunities to play.

599 is the current "death number". If you are over it, your opportunities are very few and very far between.

(all the below on 9' and 5" pocket tables):
599 speed has a lifetime high run in straight pool of about 60. Might have a lifetime 4 pack in 9 ball. Might break and run 1 rack in a race to 9. When playing the 9 ball ghost wins on average 2-3 games to the ghost's 7.

 

[straightline]

599 is the current "death number". If you are over it, your opportunities are very few and very far between.

(all the below on 9' and 5" pocket tables):
599 speed has a lifetime high run in straight pool of about 60. Might have a lifetime 4 pack in 9 ball. Might break and run 1 rack in a race to 9. When playing the 9 ball ghost wins on average 2-3 games to the ghost's 7.

Hypocrisy aside; that's all that constitutes a low 6?

 

[iusedtoberich]

Hypocrisy aside; that's all that constitutes a low 6?

Do you mean low FargoRate 600's? Or another system's 6's? I can only speak to FargoRate.

 

[billiards_watch]

The consensus it is different by location. I find that Northern California players are better than SoCal players.

Oscar and Hard Times are a factory. They are pumping out some good players.

 

[Cartune]

OG Hard Times R.I.P.