Billiard Industry needs

fuggles said:
How can you "solve" this island problem? If no one leaves the island, then still a problem. When players leave the island the problem is already solved.
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Yes. But the more interesting case is almost islands. A Presque-isle is an "almost island," a peninsula with a thin neck. And it becomes interesting not only what happens to the few players who leave but also the larger number who stay.
Here is a quiz.
In the scenario below,

(1) What happens to Bill's rating?
(2) What happens to the ratings of the other 29 NowhereVillians
(3) (optional extra points) How would your answers to (1) and (2) change if you were talking about an Elo rating approach, like FIDE, Glicko, or the various pool implementations

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mikepage said:
Yes. But the more interesting case is almost islands. A Presque-isle is an "almost island," a peninsula with a thin neck. And it becomes interesting not only what happens to the few players who leave but also the larger number who stay.
Here is a quiz.
In the scenario below,

(1) What happens to Bill's rating?
(2) What happens to the ratings of the other 29 NowhereVillians
(3) (optional extra points) How would your answers to (1) and (2) change if you were talking about an Elo rating approach, like FIDE, Glicko, or the various pool implementations

[i removed the img cause it is huge]
Click to expand...
So a couple of things first. I have noticed that my fargo moves when I have not played, which tells me there is some feedback based on my opponents future ratings change [performance]. Small but still present. My answer is based on what I think it should do.

So my final answer is D. This is what should happen in my opinion. No way either C or A are the answer. B shouldn't happen either.

As for ELO, I have a USCF rating but have no specific knowledge of how it works. Very crude understanding at best.
 
fuggles said:
So a couple of things first. I have noticed that my fargo moves when I have not played, which tells me there is some feedback based on my opponents future ratings change [performance]. Small but still present. My answer is based on what I think it should do.

So my final answer is D. This is what should happen in my opinion. No way either C or A are the answer. B shouldn't happen either.
Click to expand...
Your intuition is right here. If Bill apparently seriously underperforms (375 instead of expected 575) when he moves to Phoenix, there is every reason to believe all those who play near Bill's speed back in Nowhereville also would perform near 375 if they played in Phoenix. And when those players move down to 375, everyone else in Nowhereville needs to move down a few hundred points to maintain the internal order. This is an extreme (fake) case of the kind of rebalancing that is happening on smaller scales every day.

Also, if we look at another person in Nowhereville, perhaps Vito, rated 630, he will have went to bed rated 630 and woke up to see 430, even though he didn't play anything new. It's not that his opponents got worse. It's that FargoRate got less confused about how they actually play. When your rating fluctuates, it's about FargoRate having a better understanding of your average opponent strength.
fuggles said:
As for ELO, I have a USCF rating but have no specific knowledge of how it works. Very crude understanding at best.
Click to expand...

Elo is step by step, without this feedback we're talking about here. With Elo, Bill would go down a bunch from his performance in Phoenix, but his friends back home stay where they are. If Bill moved back to Nowhereville, the effects of his Phoenix trip would in time trickle around and cause the whole town to go down by about 7 points (not the 200 right away like with FargoRate).
 
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