it's the racking. the same old wonky "aero" rack they're peddling, and the refs not being too meticulous. hence most players are breaking from the side
2025 Men's World 10-Ball Championship, Sept. 20-28 -- General Comments Thread
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it's the racking. the same old wonky "aero" rack they're peddling, and the refs not being too meticulous. hence most players are breaking from the side
sudocrushms
Well-known member
There have been some brow-raising moments with the Arc this tournament (at least table 1). There have been a few balls around the sides that have rolled really weird.
i guess we'll see if they materialize next year then. i hope so.
I see a handful of the regulars here making comments like this, and I'm trying to understand the perspective.
Other than that we're used to single longer races and we've always done it like that (which I don't dismiss as nothing), can people weigh in on what it is that feels better about a single longer race? For the discussion here, let's just compare best-of-3 races to 4 to a single race to 9 and leave the shootout out of the discussion for now.
Good job it’s not early 10 ball. It tracks to the pocket loads!!
sudocrushms
Well-known member
I like the best of 3 sets to 4 with winner break. It gives the ability to put packs together while also giving a chance to return serve. Best of both worlds. Also has natural breaks built in for the players/officials/fans.
Why is there a big DIS next to a bunch of player’s names like Raga? Are they disqualified? What happened?
Badpenguin
Well-known member
I think your data has shown there is no difference in predicted outcomes between the two (ignoring the shootout)?
I suppose there is a thrill of a bigger comeback with the race to 9, but comebacks are more likely with set approach.
Too much is definitely better than too little, but I have to wonder if it means more future conflict.
I get the sense WNT and WPA/Predator are moving to try to expand their calendars to get the best dates before the other organization does. Crowd each other out.
The calendar is especially crowded right now. We have:
WPA 10-ball (9/20 - 9/28)
Peri Open ((10/2 - 10/5)
Hanoi Open (10/7 to 10/12)
WPA 8-ball (10/9 - 10/13)
Reyes Cup (10/16 - 10/19)
Philippines Open (10/21 - 10/26)
*Qatar 10-ball World Cup (10/23 - 11/2)
WPM (November?)
International (11/17 - 11/22)
*Qualifying starts 10/23, but main event starts 10/28.
***
It will be very interesting to see who skips Hanoi and the Philippines Open and who goes to Qatar. Filler and SVB for sure.
Filler is going to WPA 8-ball and is shown in the promo for Qatar. I imagine most Predator players will follow suit.
Doesn't look like Filler will play any WNT-affiliated events until perhaps the International, which is also WPA sanctioned. It would seem he's a no-go for the Reyes and Mosconi.
SVB is also doing the WPA circuit. Both the 10-ball and 8-ball events and Qatar. Definitely no Philippines Open and probably no Reyes Cup. Mosconi seems doubtful too unless WNT changes/clarifies its rules.
The promo for Qatar shows Mario He, Kazakis and ... Wiktor Wielinksi.
The first promo of names from WNT for the Philippines Open lists
- Carlo Biado
- Johann Chua
- Francisco Sánchez Ruiz
- Jayson Shaw
- Anton Raga
- David Alcaide
- Duong Quoc Hoang
- Bernie Regalario
- Mickey Krause
- James Aranas
Gorst is not listed, but his face is on the promo. I assume he will be on the Reyes World Team (and Mosconi too).
The double-elimination stage is best of 3 sets, races to 4; single elimination (Last 32) is best of 5 sets, races to 4.
The women's 9-Ball event is best of 3 sets in both stages.
Five players forfeited in the first round -- no-shows, I imagine -- Al Shaheen, Lombardo, Raga, Holem, and Dang. They were marked with "FF" in that round.
The same 5 players are marked with "DIS" in the Loser Round 1.
So the 96-player event was really 91.
Seriously?? If i play a champion short races and winner break i have a shot, a very small one but a shot. In a long race ,regardless of who breaks, i have zero chance. These short sets allow lesser players to have a chance. Doesn't take a supercomputer full of numbers to see that. As i said before its fine for a regular event but to crown a World Champion??? Gimme a break. Would you think that 50pt. games would be ok to determine a World 14.1 champ??? Yeah right.
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That would be a fair argument if we were comparing a race to 4 to a race to 9. But we're not.
Again, nobody is advocating making the match merely a shorter race.
I'm confident we all agree that shortening the race gives a weaker player a better chance to ride the rolls and win the match and that's bad for a championship event.
It's just not what we're talking about here.
Hmmm, probabilities get a little complicated here (at least for me).
For example:
Player A wins the 1st set 4-3
Player A loses the 2nd set 0-4
Player A wins the 3rd set 4-3
So, player A wins the match but only ~44% of the racks played. Are you saying the match win probabilities are not different than playing one long set?
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let's not. it's a world championship and matches are decided by a stupid practice drill
They can be different or they can be the same. You have to look a little closer.
Let's start by actually doing the comparison that I think contributes to tripping people up a bit: race to 4 vs race to 9.
To make it concrete, let's talk about two players 50 points apart, like Jonas Souto and Fedor Gorst
Souto wins a race to 9 24% of the time
Souto wins a race to 4 32% of the time -- notably higher reflecting the bigger role of chance with a shorter race.
So a race to 9 is better for a championship event, where you want the match outcome to more reliably reflect the skill difference.
But what if instead of a race to 4, we do a best of 3 races to 4. If a lesser player is going to win because he got lucky, he's going to have to get lucky twice, which is less likely. It's not hard to figure out just how much less likely. We can flesh it out like this.
Souto can win by winning the first two race-to-4 sets. That has a probability of 32% X 32% [set score 2-0]
Or he can win by winning one of the first two race-to-4 sets and then winning the third one. That has probability 2*32%*32%*68% [set score 2-1]
Add those together and you get 24%
So a 50-point dog wins a race to 9 24% of the time, and he wins a best of 3 races to 4 also 24% of the time
They don't have to be the same. But they are (within a few tenths of a percent).
Here is another interesting thing. The format that's used in the elimination stage of world 10-Ball, best of 5 races to 4, is actually more discriminating than a straight race to 13!
I wish you would have just said "yes".
Its semi ok in a regular event but this whole format to decide a World Champion is a farce.