Mathematical analysis of Predator format (sets)

And that's the crux of it. The sets format keeps the drama high throughout the match.

I really like the sets format. Other than the shootout, of course.
It's easy to complain about the shootout but if a match is hill-hill, then the players have basically been playing as well as each other, and it seems like the winner of the match probably shouldn't be decided in a way that gives a huge advantage to the player who happens to be breaking for the last rack.

Other than a shootout, I don't know what else they could do. I suppose sudden-death sets of 2 racks where each player gets to break once?
 
It's easy to complain about the shootout but if a match is hill-hill, then the players have basically been playing as well as each other, and it seems like the winner of the match probably shouldn't be decided in a way that gives a huge advantage to the player who happens to be breaking for the last rack.

Other than a shootout, I don't know what else they could do. I suppose sudden-death sets of 2 racks where each player gets to break once?

Win by 2. Time can be an issue. But another sport that plays by sets traditionally had win by 2, particularly in the 5th set, didn’t it.
 
Here is a previous discussion of sets vs. a single race...

 
Assuming two players, Player A is +50 Fargo vs. Player B.

In a race to 9, if Player A is down 0-4, his odds of winning are 31.47%.

In the Predator BO3 format, if player A loses the first set 0-4, his odds of winning are still 46.54%.
This is the most important part. A lower rated player has more chance to win in predator format because of this At 0-4 down the better player gets looser and the worse player tightens up. If I’m 0-4 done or one set down but back to 0-0 for the next set, just 1 game won and I’m feeling like I am back in it- even though I’m not I feel as though I’m wining or at least on the way to being even again. I’ve played the sets format 3 times in a category 2 ratings higher than me. Every time I have progressed fairly far. Every time I have played a tournament of strategy race to 9 on the same level , I am luck to win one match
 
This is the most important part. A lower rated player has more chance to win in predator format because of this At 0-4 down the better player gets looser ...
You mean if the better player is 0-4 down or if the weaker player is 0-4 down? It's not clear what you're saying here.

I think a lot of these matches depend on the psychology of both players and you could imagine psychological scenarios that fit whatever narrative you want to believe.

If a player is up in a match, maybe he plays looser because he's comfortable in the lead, or maybe he tightens up because he feels pressure to finish the match. And maybe he plays better if he's looser because he's playing more casually and it's a more familiar mindset, or maybe he plays worse when he's playing looser because he's being less careful and makes more mistakes. There's a whole matrix of possibilities.

If we're just trying to do an apples-to-apples comparison of the different formats, I think it's best to eliminate this psychology altogether (since it can say whatever you want it to say) and just go by Fargo odds.
 
You mean if the better player is 0-4 down or if the weaker player is 0-4 down? It's not clear what you're saying here.

I think a lot of these matches depend on the psychology of both players and you could imagine psychological scenarios that fit whatever narrative you want to believe.

If a player is up in a match, maybe he plays looser because he's comfortable in the lead, or maybe he tightens up because he feels pressure to finish the match. And maybe he plays better if he's looser because he's playing more casually and it's a more familiar mindset, or maybe he plays worse when he's playing looser because he's being less careful and makes more mistakes. There's a whole matrix of possibilities.

If we're just trying to do an apples-to-apples comparison of the different formats, I think it's best to eliminate this psychology altogether (since it can say whatever you want it to say) and just go by Fargo odds.
I believe a set format generally favors the mentally stronger player, all things being equal. And that's why I think it's a superior format when it comes to deciding World Championships.
 
I believe a set format generally favors the mentally stronger player, all things being equal. And that's why I think it's a superior format when it comes to deciding World Championships.
Another way to look at it is that if a player loses the first four games in a single race, mental strength gives the player a better chance to battle back. In sets, you just lost the first set and get a reset and you can relax more and the mental strength is less beneficial. Maybe one format is more comfortable for a particular player than his opponent, but that would be almost impossible to measure.

I think the main point of the analysis is that for any set format, there is a single race length that is about as good for separating wheat from chaff. I think the choice between them is going to be based more on the production value of the format -- which is more interesting to the viewer, which works for the scheduling, which is easier to insert commercials, ....
 
Another way to look at it is that if a player loses the first four games in a single race, mental strength gives the player a better chance to battle back. In sets, you just lost the first set and get a reset and you can relax more and the mental strength is less beneficial. Maybe one format is more comfortable for a particular player than his opponent, but that would be almost impossible to measure.
So yeah, you guys are now saying the opposite of each other. One format favors the player with more mental strength, no wait, the other one does. I can see the argument for both sides. Which is why I wrote what I did in my earlier post, that any argument about psychology can be made to fit whatever narrative you want it to.

It might be interesting to think of a way to objectively measure mental strength. Like, if a player gets down in a match, what percentage of the time has he been able to battle back and win, historically? But that's a discussion for a different thread...

I think the main point of the analysis is that for any set format, there is a single race length that is about as good for separating wheat from chaff. I think the choice between them is going to be based more on the production value of the format -- which is more interesting to the viewer, which works for the scheduling, which is easier to insert commercials, ....
One could argue that a match is more interesting if it's closer, and, as discussed earlier in the thread, the Predator/sets format keeps the odds closer for longer...
 
Doesn't this run counter to your hypothesis that the odds are the same between the two formats?
I think one of the reasons that the odds are not the same that if you play Predator BO3, if player A wins the first set 4-0, he/she can still lose the match with a higher rack score 10-8.
 
You mean if the better player is 0-4 down or if the weaker player is 0-4 down? It's not clear what you're saying here.

I think a lot of these matches depend on the psychology of both players and you could imagine psychological scenarios that fit whatever narrative you want to believe.

If a player is up in a match, maybe he plays looser because he's comfortable in the lead, or maybe he tightens up because he feels pressure to finish the match. And maybe he plays better if he's looser because he's playing more casually and it's a more familiar mindset, or maybe he plays worse when he's playing looser because he's being less careful and makes more mistakes. There's a whole matrix of possibilities.

If we're just trying to do an apples-to-apples comparison of the different formats, I think it's best to eliminate this psychology altogether (since it can say whatever you want it to say) and just go by Fargo odds.
I meant if the better player is 4-0 up
 
Good old fashioned "long" races have one big thing that the best of short races can never have. The chance of a big dramatic comeback. OOOOOO someone was down 0-3 and won 4-3, big deal happens all the damn time and isn't all that unlikely. Someone is down 7-8-9 to 0 and comes back to win, thats always fun to watch as you see the tide turning etc. Just never can have that with these short races.
 
Good old fashioned "long" races have one big thing that the best of short races can never have. The chance of a big dramatic comeback. OOOOOO someone was down 0-3 and won 4-3, big deal happens all the damn time and isn't all that unlikely. Someone is down 7-8-9 to 0 and comes back to win, thats always fun to watch as you see the tide turning etc. Just never can have that with these short races.
There are still dramatic comebacks. Kaci was just down 2-0 in sets and 3-1 in the third set to Capito, then came back and won.
 
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