Tournament Draw Question

jgpool · Feb 27, 2016

Here's the situation: I am running a tournament with 18 participants today. I am using a 32 man bracket. So there are 14 byes in the 1st round, which means I will have only 2 matches in the 1st round. I have one player who is going to be a little late so I will have to draw for him. What would be the odds of the late player getting a bye if I drew his name 1st, and what would be the odds of the late player getting a bye if I drew him last? Any help is appreciated.

Cornerman · Feb 27, 2016

jgpool said:
Here's the situation: I am running a tournament with 18 participants today. I am using a 32 man bracket. So there are 14 byes in the 1st round, which means I will have only 2 matches in the 1st round. I have one player who is going to be a little late so I will have to draw for him. What would be the odds of the late player getting a bye if I drew his name 1st, and what would be the odds of the late player getting a bye if I drew him last? Any help is appreciated.

Help me understand... it sounds like you're "drawing byes," which would already be a no-no.

If you draw his name first, you would already know if he had a bye, depending on how you set up your bye charts.

7:2 (14 byes vs 4 non-byes) The odds change after each draw. If there's a bye left, and you're the last to draw, then it's 100% chance.

pt109 · Feb 27, 2016

I think the chances of that player getting a bye is 7-1....
....28 winners....4 losers

...first or last is irrelevant

I'm assuming you're writing in the byes before you draw

frankncali · Feb 27, 2016

The odds are the same regardless unless each draw is revealed.. I think

The byes are placed and you are having players draw numbers to see where they slate in the bracket. Two people will play in round one. You might be catching grief from him or others to whether its an advantage or not to draw at a specific time.

I don't do it that way. The players are numbered and byes are placed accordingly.

I take the cards with numbers corresponding to the players and shuffle them.. Then just turn them over and plug them in. No one is drawing any earlier or later they are just getting plugged in randomly.

jgpool · Feb 27, 2016

Cornerman said:
Help me understand... it sounds like you're "drawing byes," which would already be a no-no.

If you draw his name first, you would already know if he had a bye, depending on how you set up your bye charts.

The odds change after each draw. If there's a bye left, and you're the last to draw, then it's 100% chance.

I'm not drawing the byes, they are placed in the bracket before the players draw. I am drawing for the players' placement in the bracket.

Cornerman · Feb 27, 2016

jgpool said:
I'm not drawing the byes, they are placed in the bracket before the players draw. I am drawing for the players' placement in the bracket.

7:2 to get a bye if you draw him first. His odds change for each draw, depending on what gets drawn.

jgpool · Feb 27, 2016

frankncali said:
The odds are the same regardless unless each draw is revealed.. I think

The byes are placed and you are having players draw numbers to see where they slate in the bracket. Two people will play in round one. You might be catching grief from him or others to whether its an advantage or not to draw at a specific time.

I don't do it that way. The players are numbered and byes are placed accordingly.

I take the cards with numbers corresponding to the players and shuffle them.. Then just turn them over and plug them in. No one is drawing any earlier or later they are just getting plugged in randomly.

I put in the byes then the players draw a poker chip with a number on it. Numbered from 1 thru 18. Then they are put on the bracket based on that number. If a player would draw #5 he would go into the fifth open spot from the top down.

randyg · Feb 27, 2016

Murphy's Law applies here!

randyg

Cracktherack · Feb 27, 2016

It's not right to expect the field to be there at the draw, but allow a late arrival to still enter. I know that's not the question here, but tournaments I've played in, if they start at noon and you walk in at 12:05, you're out of luck. This serves as a reminder to drag your lazy butt there in time to enter. Phone entry doesn't count.

KRJ · Feb 27, 2016

jgpool said:
I'm not drawing the byes, they are placed in the bracket before the players draw. I am drawing for the players' placement in the bracket.

It matters not when you draw for him. first, fifth or last. The odds are exactly the same. just like drawing "straws", and the short straw loses. No advantage of who goes first or last.

Just draw it, and if he loses he loses. So, he forfeits his first match. That's life.

Poolhall60561 · Feb 27, 2016

Cracktherack said:
It's not right to expect the field to be there at the draw, but allow a late arrival to still enter. I know that's not the question here, but tournaments I've played in, if they start at noon and you walk in at 12:05, you're out of luck. This serves as a reminder to drag your lazy butt there in time to enter. Phone entry doesn't count.

I drew a bye in a local tournament and the bye was filled with a late arriving A+ player when he showed 30 minutes late. Needless to say I lost the first round. I did not complain and nobody else did because A+ player is treated like someone special. I felt a bit screwed but did not feel like going against the crowd.

Players need to be on time.

pt109 · Feb 27, 2016

Cornerman said:
Help me understand... it sounds like you're "drawing byes," which would already be a no-no.

If you draw his name first, you would already know if he had a bye, depending on how you set up your bye charts.

7:2 (14 byes vs 4 non-byes) The odds change after each draw. If there's a bye left, and you're the last to draw, then it's 100% chance.

pt109 said:
I think the chances of that player getting a bye is 7-1....
....28 winners....4 losers

...first or last is irrelevant
I'm looking at this like a backgammon problem, Freddy....
...count up the winners and losers....there's your odds.
...so, I get 7-1.....you get 7-2....usually, I would accept your math over mine...
...but those 14 byes are actually 28....just like a 2-1 at backgammon is two rolls...1-2 is the other half of the entry.

KMRUNOUT · Feb 27, 2016

Poolhall60561 said:
I drew a bye in a local tournament and the bye was filled with a late arriving A+ player when he showed 30 minutes late. Needless to say I lost the first round. I did not complain and nobody else did because A+ player is treated like someone special. I felt a bit screwed but did not feel like going against the crowd.

Players need to be on time.

For many other things in life take priority over pool. If someone is working late and gets to the tourney last minute, who cares if it doesn't hold things up? I think if someone arrives before the first round is over and there is a bye available, it is a good idea to accommodate them, particularly if it is just a weekly tourney. The situation you say has happened to me too, on both sides. I think making things convenient if it doesn't affect anything else is good practice in life.

KMRUNOUT

Cornerman · Feb 27, 2016

pt109 said:
pt109 said:

I think the chances of that player getting a bye is 7-1....
....28 winners....4 losers

...first or last is irrelevant

Click to expand...

I'm looking at this like a backgammon problem, Freddy....
...count up the winners and losers....there's your odds.
...so, I get 7-1.....you get 7-2....usually, I would accept your math over mine...
...but those 14 byes are actually 28....just like a 2-1 at backgammon is two rolls...1-2 is the other half of the entry.

P.,

I'm not understanding how 14 byes are actually 28. Do you get two points for winning?

I'm seeing this as:

18 players means 18 possibilities: 14 are byes and 4 are non-byes. The four non-byes represent one match between 2 players in the upper half of the 32 player draw, and one match between 2 players in the lower half of the 32 player draw (16 matches in round 1). The remaining 14 player get byes.

Looks like straight math: 14 to 4 are the odds that any of the 18 draws a bye vs drawing a non-bye. 14:4 is the same as 7:2. So if you were to make a bet on getting a bye, you'd have to lay at least 7:2 for someone to consider it a good bet, or take 7:2 if you were betting on the non-bye.

pt109 · Feb 27, 2016

Cornerman said:
P.,

I'm not understanding how 14 byes are actually 28. Do you get two points for winning?

I'm seeing this as:

18 players means 18 possibilities: 14 are byes and 4 are non-byes. The four non-byes represent one match between 2 players in the upper half of the 32 player draw, and one match between 2 players in the lower half of the 32 player draw (16 matches in round 1). The remaining 14 player get byes.

Looks like straight math: 14 to 4 are the odds that any of the 18 draws a bye vs drawing a non-bye. 14:4 is the same as 7:2. So if you were to make a bet on getting a bye, you'd have to lay at least 7:2 for someone to consider it a good bet, or take 7:2 if you were betting on the non-bye.

I'm going back to backgammon....I've had four discussions today....
....wrong at every one.....:boring2:

pdcue · Feb 27, 2016

Cornerman said:
P.,

I'm not understanding how 14 byes are actually 28. Do you get two points for winning?

I'm seeing this as:

18 players means 18 possibilities: 14 are byes and 4 are non-byes. The four non-byes represent one match between 2 players in the upper half of the 32 player draw, and one match between 2 players in the lower half of the 32 player draw (16 matches in round 1). The remaining 14 player get byes.

Looks like straight math: 14 to 4 are the odds that any of the 18 draws a bye vs drawing a non-bye. 14:4 is the same as 7:2. So if you were to make a bet on getting a bye, you'd have to lay at least 7:2 for someone to consider it a good bet, or take 7:2 if you were betting on the non-bye.

Exactly - except that is only half of the OPs question. He also wanted to know what
the odds were if he drew for the tardy player LAST, which is a conditional probability
based on how many byes have been drawn previously.

If I could just locate my beenie with the propeller on top I would give you a function
for that probability.

Dale

AF pool guy · Feb 27, 2016

Odds are exactly the same first or last. Think of the draw as a stack of 18 cards with 4 red and 14 black cards. Now shuffle them the four reds are where they are and the distribution of the other cards don't change as you take cards off the top.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

lfigueroa · Feb 27, 2016

jgpool said:
Here's the situation: I am running a tournament with 18 participants today. I am using a 32 man bracket. So there are 14 byes in the 1st round, which means I will have only 2 matches in the 1st round. I have one player who is going to be a little late so I will have to draw for him. What would be the odds of the late player getting a bye if I drew his name 1st, and what would be the odds of the late player getting a bye if I drew him last? Any help is appreciated.

Doesn't matter. You draw for him and he takes his chances. He's drawn and isn't there, tough. Only fair for all the guys who made the effort to be there on time.

Lou Figueroa

Swighey · Feb 28, 2016

You do one of three things:

1) You draw for him and if hes not there its just tough,
2) You accommodate him by allowing him to play when he arrives by sliding games forward (and tell the players before you draw that you might have to do this)
3) You tell him that if hes not there for the draw then he doesn't play

Options 2 and 3 are the most reasonable and I would personally go with option 2.
Options 1 is the most "fair" but a bit defeatist from the point of view of the tournament.

jgpool · Feb 28, 2016

KMRUNOUT said:
For many other things in life take priority over pool. If someone is working late and gets to the tourney last minute, who cares if it doesn't hold things up? I think if someone arrives before the first round is over and there is a bye available, it is a good idea to accommodate them, particularly if it is just a weekly tourney. The situation you say has happened to me too, on both sides. I think making things convenient if it doesn't affect anything else is good practice in life.

KMRUNOUT

This is my philosophy also. We live in an active retirement community with 81 holes of golf, so we cater to the golfers if they want to play pool. It turned out that by the time we drew his name the 2 first round games were filled so he got a bye.

Thanks to all who responded and it looks like the consensus is that the odds do not change, they are 7-1 whether he draws first or last.
I knew I could count on you guys, thanks!

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