Mosconi Cup Format
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Mosconi Cup Format - 11-26-2019, 02:22 PM

Some other posts have got me thinking. People say Filler beats Shane because it is a race to 5 alternate break. Make it winner break and Filler can't win.

Do you think USA would do better if Mosconi was winner breaks instead of alternate? Singles matches today have been very lopsided so far.
  
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11-26-2019, 02:35 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by nine_ball6970 View Post
Some other posts have got me thinking. People say Filler beats Shane because it is a race to 5 alternate break. Make it winner break and Filler can't win.

Do you think USA would do better if Mosconi was winner breaks instead of alternate? Singles matches today have been very lopsided so far.
No. SVB lost because he made mistakes and Filler didn't. Break format makes little difference in such a match.

I'd rate the breakers in this order:

SVB
Filler
Shaw
Styer
Kaci
Kazakis
Woodward
Thorpe
Feijen
Bergman

I don't see either team having much of a breaking edge in this Mosconi.
  
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11-26-2019, 07:12 PM

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Originally Posted by sjm View Post
No. SVB lost because he made mistakes and Filler didn't. Break format makes little difference in such a match.

I'd rate the breakers in this order:

SVB ..... 7/10
Filler ..... 5/8
Shaw ..... 6/6
Styer ..... 7/7
Kaci ..... 5/5
Kazakis ..... 4/7
Woodward ..... 3/4
Thorpe ..... 2/4
Feijen ..... 4/5
Bergman ..... 8/8

I don't see either team having much of a breaking edge in this Mosconi.
I marked above in blue how they are doing through 2 days: successful breaks / total breaks

Team USA -- 82% (27 of 33)
Team EUR -- 77% (24 of 31)
  
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11-26-2019, 07:16 PM

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Originally Posted by AtLarge View Post
I marked above in blue how they are doing through 2 days: successful breaks / total breaks

Team USA -- 82% (27 of 33)
Team EUR -- 77% (24 of 31)
Thanks for that. I wasn't rating their breaking in the Mosconi, but over the past few years. Bergman breaking well is a very big deal here, as his break, by his own admission, is what has held him back from ever winning any of the game's major titles. When Justin breaks well he is super-tough to beat.

Based on your stats, I'd say both teams are breaking well through day two.
  
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11-26-2019, 09:56 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by nine_ball6970 View Post
Some other posts have got me thinking. People say Filler beats Shane because it is a race to 5 alternate break. Make it winner break and Filler can't win.

Do you think USA would do better if Mosconi was winner breaks instead of alternate? Singles matches today have been very lopsided so far.
Race to 5 winner break is too short, race to 5 alternate breaks is punishing for a dry break and really punishing for a scratch on the break. Basically if you scratch, you should expect to start out 2-0 or 3-0 depending on if you won the lag or not, and that is a huge spot to give up in alternate break. The hope is that in a race to 11 matches the break stats even out.


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11-27-2019, 08:02 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by nine_ball6970 View Post
Some other posts have got me thinking. People say Filler beats Shane because it is a race to 5 alternate break. Make it winner break and Filler can't win.

Do you think USA would do better if Mosconi was winner breaks instead of alternate? Singles matches today have been very lopsided so far.
Contrary to what a lot of uninformed people think, in and of itself winner breaks or alternate breaks has no affect whatsoever on who wins and how often. It does however affect how much they win by, with alternate breaks making for closer scoring matches.

How can something bring score lines closer together without affecting who wins how often you might ask? It is difficult to explain but essentially alternate breaks just decreases--for both players--the amount of points that each turn at the table is worth on average over time. Conversely, winner breaks increases--for both players--the amount of points that each turn at the table is worth on average over time.

Think of it as being akin to decreasing the point values in say basketball, where if you made regular baskets worth one point each, "three pointers" worth 1.5 points each, and free throws worth .5 points each. It would never change who won, or how often they won, but it would make the score lines closer.

That said, there is some chance that one format or the other could have some psychological affect on a player. Alternate breaks comes with a lot more pressure (which is a good thing IMO, especially in higher level competition), and some people handle pressure better than others. On a side note, if if humans were being logical and rational, alternate breaks shouldn't come with any more pressure, since it doesn't change who wins how often, but the reality is that we aren't always the most rational and most players feel a lot more pressure under the alternate breaks format.

It could also be possible that one of the formats, usually for illogical reasons with no basis in reality, gets in certain player's heads and causes them to either have increased or decreased confidence which in turn ends up affecting the quality of their play either positively or negatively, but in and of itself there is no difference between the two and the same person will win the same amount of time with either format, psychological impacts aside.
  
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11-27-2019, 08:13 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by nine_ball6970 View Post
Make it winner break and Filler can't win.
This should be obviously false to anyone who knows the game. Even in a race to 25, either of these guys can win, regardless of break format. Bring it down to a race to 5? Whichever of these two has the edge, it's no more than a few percent away from a coin flip, again regardless of break format. We're not talking about top pro vs. lesser pro here, we're talking 5-time US Open champion vs. a guy with a whole collection of world titles in the last couple years including MVP of this event. There's no "can't win" to be found.


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11-27-2019, 08:47 AM

If filler and Shane played a race to 100, winner break, 10 ball, it would be a pickem. And there would be tons of action from side betters each side.

So no, Shane didnít lose due to the format. Shane lost because filler is every bit as good as Shane.

Imo
  
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