$100,000 Match - It Will Be Legit

[justinb386]

That does not mean Al knew it was not legit though. Two players with backers come up to me saying $10,000 a man and post the money but really are playing for $1000 a man it is not my fault for advertising it as $10,000 since I don't know. Either way I am not a French fan after that BS but still will watch Shane torch his horse. :smile:

I am curious why the price (of the money being bet) that you advertised the match to to be really matter that much for the viewers that pay to see the online stream? The match would still be just as interesting to watch (in my mind anyways). Do you think these 2 players would play any better or worse (whether the bet be $2,000 or $20,000)? My only point is that maybe it would have still been worth streaming the match (if you did not stream it). Still a very interesting match for online viewers to watch, right (even if it is only for $2,000), and still worth what ever price you were going to charge for the PPV I think, but that is just my opinion.

 

[BJTyler747]

If I'm playing someone to 160 and I think it's even, then absolutely. You're talking about a 10% spot. Think of a race to 10 against someone who is dead even with you.

If he was going to get to 10 first, then you lose anyway--that's 50% of what can happen.

The other 50% of the time, you reach 10 first. With the spot, if the score is 10-9, then you still lose. If you win 10-8 or better, then you double your money.

Thus, the question is, conditional on getting to 10 first, are you more likely to win (1) exactly 10-9 or (2) by 10-8 or better? Working quickly, if the odds of winning a game are 50-50, I think the chance of a final score of 10-9 is about 18%. It's certainly below 50%.

unfortunately, odds don't scale that way. Assuming we're even, the odds of you beating me by 1 in a race to 10 is not equivalent to beating me by 10 in a race to 100.

 

[CreeDo]

I love stats, I think they're useful for weeding out some bullshit, wishful thinking, and exaggerations.

But still, I would never go with Fargo or Accustats or any other rating system to call this match.
(not to put money on it anyway... sure, I'll make a prediction for fun.)

Those systems might predict the results if you evened out some of the inherent luck in pool,
like the layout after the break or how reliably someone wins from ball in hand.

But they cannot predict the effect of momentum and mood.
Distraction, some unintended sharking, a squabble over the racking, nerves...
all of these things could swing 20+ games in either direction.

Even looking strictly at the stats, nobody should think a race to 140 is so long
that it guarantees a slightly better player will definitely win.

If the underdog is only 1% worse, statistically he still has a ~37% chance
to win a race to 140. That's better than a coin flip but it's hardly a lock.