8 Ball runs at 35%

[pete lafond]

Seems like the players playing better than the rest are averaging a little higher than 35% of their games are 8 ball runs. I expected it to be higher but imagine that the money plus tighter equipment may be the factor here. Lots of runs will make it fun for the non, or average, pool player to watch on TV.

 

[Colin Colenso]

Seems like the players playing better than the rest are averaging a little higher than 35% of their games are 8 ball runs. I expected it to be higher but imagine that the money plus tighter equipment may be the factor here. Lots of runs will make it fun for the non, or average, pool player to watch on TV.

Yes, Pete, the standard of play is improving. The players are more focused and gaining confidence in their ability on the tables. Seems to happen in all tournaments.

Some stats from Day 2:
Break and Runs
Group 1: 46 from 120 frames = 38.3%
Group 2: 46 from 120 frames = 38.3%
Group 3: 38 from 121 frames = 31.4%
Overall: 130 from 361 frames = 36.0%

I also noticed successful break percentages went up today. I took a sample of 42 breaks and 25 of these were legal breaks with a ball made = 59.5%

This is up from about 40% in my sample of 55 breaks yesterday.

Seems the better breakers are progressing and also the players seem to be very focused on their breaking method now.

So based on 60% successful breaks and 36% break and runs, the conversion rate after a successful break was about 60% today.

The best players are probably closer to 65% on the break and 70% conversion which would convert to about 45% Break and runs. Such as Mika who got 14 break and runs from 30 frames won.

 

[gregory]

On games that aren't BRO, how are the game unfolding?

are there any strategic battles with safeties, blocking pockets and tying opponents balls up? You always hear that if you can't run out, sink a couple of balls and open up your balls/tie up their balls and duck for cover. Do the pros ever do this, or do they usually try for the runout? Are most of the games that aren't run off the break, run outs by the non-breaking player and one miss and the opponent running out? Is it unusual to see games with more than a couple of innings?

 

[Colin Colenso]

On games that aren't BRO, how are the game unfolding?

are there any strategic battles with safeties, blocking pockets and tying opponents balls up? You always hear that if you can't run out, sink a couple of balls and open up your balls/tie up their balls and duck for cover. Do the pros ever do this, or do they usually try for the runout? Are most of the games that aren't run off the break, run outs by the non-breaking player and one miss and the opponent running out? Is it unusual to see games with more than a couple of innings?

I would say about 15% of frames develop into some strategy battle. Not many long ones though.

 

[TheBook]

Colin

Thanks for taking the time to keep us informed and to do all the math.

I may have missed this somewhere or don't know how to interpet the stats you are providing.

Is the rule allowing a open table after making a ball on the break a big factor. How often does the player chose the other group and does it result in a runout? Don't need anything accurate just a ball park of your gut feeling.

The other is how often does the non breaker run out on their first turn. It would seem as if the breaker could not run out they would play it safe.


Thanks

 

[Colin Colenso]

Colin

Thanks for taking the time to keep us informed and to do all the math.

I may have missed this somewhere or don't know how to interpet the stats you are providing.

Is the rule allowing a open table after making a ball on the break a big factor. How often does the player chose the other group and does it result in a runout? Don't need anything accurate just a ball park of your gut feeling.

The other is how often does the non breaker run out on their first turn. It would seem as if the breaker could not run out they would play it safe.


Thanks

There were a few threads here discussing these stats and what they mean. Maybe on the main forum mostly.

I think with choice on open table it must help about 20%, but one poster who plays both styles in leagues says he gets about the same number of run outs.

Sorry, in a bit of a ruch to explain in detail here...on my way to Day 3

 

[AuntyDan]

The best players are probably closer to 65% on the break and 70% conversion which would convert to about 45% Break and runs. Such as Mika who got 14 break and runs from 30 frames won.

Thanks for all the data Colin. This ties in pretty much exactly with an analysis Phil Capelle did based on an Pro 8 Ball tournament played at the LA Expo in 2001. Conditions were similar in that it was an invitation round-robin format and they were playing on 9' Diamond Pro tables. The only main equipment differences were that they were playing on Simonis 860 instead of heavy nap cloth. It's been a long time since I saw it so I don't recall if they were playing under normal BCA 8 Ball rules rather than the kind of modified rules the IPT are using. (IE break boxes, having to have a set number of balls cross the middle on the break etc.)

Capelle's analysis showed a 44.1% B&R average at 8 Ball in these conditions by a similar list of players (Reyes, Archer, Immonen etc.) which matches your 45% very closely. Under similar circumstances he says Pros playing 9 Ball have around a 28% B&R average.

Clearly once these top Pros have adjusted their break style to the equipment and rule-set they are dominating as one would expect. This ability to adjust rapidly and produce their best game no matter that the rules or equipment are is one of the things that makes them top Pros.

 

[rackmsuckr]

On games that aren't BRO, how are the game unfolding?

are there any strategic battles with safeties, blocking pockets and tying opponents balls up? You always hear that if you can't run out, sink a couple of balls and open up your balls/tie up their balls and duck for cover. Do the pros ever do this, or do they usually try for the runout? Are most of the games that aren't run off the break, run outs by the non-breaking player and one miss and the opponent running out? Is it unusual to see games with more than a couple of innings?

It's also a significant factor that if you foul on the break, opponent gets BIH anywhere on the table, not just in the kitchen.

I also saw Corey Deuel try a soft break and started making 3 on the break with a beautiful spread.

 

[Colin Colenso]

Thanks for all the data Colin. This ties in pretty much exactly with an analysis Phil Capelle did based on an Pro 8 Ball tournament played at the LA Expo in 2001. Conditions were similar in that it was an invitation round-robin format and they were playing on 9' Diamond Pro tables. The only main equipment differences were that they were playing on Simonis 860 instead of heavy nap cloth. It's been a long time since I saw it so I don't recall if they were playing under normal BCA 8 Ball rules rather than the kind of modified rules the IPT are using. (IE break boxes, having to have a set number of balls cross the middle on the break etc.)

Capelle's analysis showed a 44.1% B&R average at 8 Ball in these conditions by a similar list of players (Reyes, Archer, Immonen etc.) which matches your 45% very closely. Under similar circumstances he says Pros playing 9 Ball have around a 28% B&R average.

Clearly once these top Pros have adjusted their break style to the equipment and rule-set they are dominating as one would expect. This ability to adjust rapidly and produce their best game no matter that the rules or equipment are is one of the things that makes them top Pros.

Capelle's stats are based only on 192 games I think, and also that may have been just a one day tourney. The simonis cloth would probably help a bit, especially with getting balls in on the break as they run further.

Anyway, all these comparisons are useful and interesting to stats minded geeks like us.

Anyway: Day 3 Break & Runout Summary
Group 1: 57 from 180 frames = 31.7% (21 came from Marlon alone)
Group 2: 47 from 188 frames = 25.0% (16 from Mika)
Group 3: 29 from 161 frames = 18.0% (10 Busta, 7 Archer)
Overall: 133 from 529 frames = 25.1%

Take Marlon and Mika out of the stats and for the other 16 players we would have 96 B&R's for 452 frames = 21.2%

The play seemed to drop a level today as many of the HOF's are past their best and/or were slow to get the hang of the tables and the atmosphere of competition. Much like all the players on Day 1 who seemed to struggle.

 

[Cornerman]

On games that aren't BRO, how are the game unfolding?

are there any strategic battles with safeties, blocking pockets and tying opponents balls up? ?

I'll say zero percent. There's the odd game where a safety is played, but I didn't see anything that would constitute a "safety battle."

I'm not sure if Colin is saying that 10-15% of the games had a couple of safety innings, or 10-15% have one safety. Of all the matches I tried to keep my eye on, I saw no more than 5 total safety shots, which isn't out of the norm for top play. And 5 might be an overestimate.

The breakers I've seen are trying to pick a break speed. They're breaking from the box, so some have gone full bore as well as down a couple of notches in the same set. It looked Manalo broke and ran almost every rack that he didn't scratch on the break (by kick or whatnot) in the one match I saw against Butera.

Fred

 

[Cornerman]

The play seemed to drop a level today as many of the HOF's are past their best and/or were slow to get the hang of the tables and the atmosphere of competition. Much like all the players on Day 1 who seemed to struggle.

That being said, Loree Jon Jones looked fantastic against Nick Van Den Berg. I watched her finish several full-table runouts, as opposed to what we saw on TV.

I watched Dallas and Butera, two guys that can still runout from anywhere (which they proved). Unfortunately, neither of them showed strong knowledge of 8-ball, and always were shooting at white flags on the 7th ball. Their shooting skills saved them, but not against some of the big boys. They are further proof that 14.1 skill and knowledge though helpful does not make a good 8-ball player in of itself. These two have better shotmaking skills than 95% of the pool world, have more 14.1 knowledge than 99.5% of the pool world, but had little clue how to play 8-ball.

Fred

 

[Colin Colenso]

I'll say zero percent. There's the odd game where a safety is played, but I didn't see anything that would constitute a "safety battle."

I'm not sure if Colin is saying that 10-15% of the games had a couple of safety innings, or 10-15% have one safety. Of all the matches I tried to keep my eye on, I saw no more than 5 total safety shots, which isn't out of the norm for top play. And 5 might be an overestimate.

Fred

Yeah, I think aout 15% of games had a shot or two which were safeties.

Rarely anything like a real safety battle over choice of balls or control of a pocket, but there have been a couple of messy games with clusters where the players back&forthed a half dozen times tempting the other to open some out.