8 on break odds

[TheBook]

According to Joe Tucker most of it depends on how the balls are racked. The chances of making the 8 increases if the balls are not racked properly and you know how to break and what to look for. On BB with old cloth the balls may be hard to keep frozen and this increases the opportunity to make the 8 on the break.

 

[Ron F]

100% True

According to Joe Tucker most of it depends on how the balls are racked. The chances of making the 8 increases if the balls are not racked properly and you know how to break and what to look for. On BB with old cloth the balls may be hard to keep frozen and this increases the opportunity to make the 8 on the break.

This is so true and there are many other variables that play a part as well.

I play in a league that just ended that keeps track of individual wins, losses and 8's made on the break. The individual stats sheet has a little over 100 players listed. I'll add up the total number of games played and the total number of 8's made on the break and post them tomorrow (if I remember). It's a typical amateur league, but the talent and experience level are a bit higher than you'd see in an APA or TAP league since it's a non-handicapped, shooters league with no maximum total handicap rule. The team I play on consists of five former APA 7's and one former APA 5. I think it'll be surprising how infrequently the 8 is made on the break from the data from the league.

Ron F

 

[eyesjr]

1 in 40 is the odds of making it. In other words, if you break 64,000 racks of 8 ball then it is about time to make it 3 in a row.

 

[justadub]

I've seen 2 in a row, on a 9-footer. But not 3.

I keep score for my league team much of the time. We can go weeks without either team getting an 8 ob the break, and then we can have a week with 2 or 3.

It's interesting.

 

[Winston846]

In APA league play I see good players get beat often because their opponent makes the 8 on the break and does hardly any work.

When I played APA, I once made the 8 on the break and scratched - for a loss of game.

PS: I am one of the former APA 7's that plays on the aformentioned team RonF describes.

 

[luv1pocket]

8 on the Break Odds

Last night I made the eight on the break three times in a row on a newer 7ft Dynamo bar box. I'm wondering what the odds are on such an occurrence.
I figure we have to have a few folks on here with knowledge of calculating statistics and probability.

BTW, I've done it two other times (always on bar box) in the past. I've always used the break from the right side off the long rail to hit the second ball in the rack.

I'd probably agree with the odds maybe 50,000 or 60,000/1 for 3 times in a row. I'm guessing great conditions maybe 30 to 1 for one time.
I made it 3 times in a row on a 7 ft Diamond but the cloth was days old, newer balls and dry conditions. Balls just went in the pocket with little effort. Months later it was more difficult. Hard to calculate odds because equipment is different cloth balls racks humidity etc.
I asked if there was a racking secret to look for like in 9 ball and didn't really get a great answer from anyone here on az long time ago.
I just now look for a gap on one side of the 8 ball and break from the other side. I believe it comes out of the pack faster and moves toward the side pocket area. That is all I ask for.
Another odds questions what are the odds of someone making the 8 ball on the break in a 32 player tournament race to 1 both sides slower cloth older balls dry conditions? I took that bet and lost twice and won once so far. Couple people told me it was maybe 20% or lower and will go every 1 in 5 tournaments. Maybe I should ask for odds on the money.

 

[berlowmj2]

right or left handed

Last night I made the eight on the break three times in a row on a newer 7ft Dynamo bar box. I'm wondering what the odds are on such an occurrence.
I figure we have to have a few folks on here with knowledge of calculating statistics and probability.

BTW, I've done it two other times (always on bar box) in the past. I've always used the break from the right side off the long rail to hit the second ball in the rack.

Are you right or left handed?

 

[chevybob20]

Odds are at least 50-1 unless it's hill-hill and your opponent is breaking. The the odds are 50/50.