8 on break odds

S

Secaucus Fats

Banned
Last night I made the eight on the break three times in a row on a newer 7ft Dynamo bar box. I'm wondering what the odds are on such an occurrence.
I figure we have to have a few folks on here with knowledge of calculating statistics and probability.

BTW, I've done it two other times (always on bar box) in the past. I've always used the break from the right side off the long rail to hit the second ball in the rack.
 
Secaucus Fats said:
Last night I made the eight on the break three times in a row on a newer 7ft Dynamo bar box. I'm wondering what the odds are on such an occurrence.
I figure we have to have a few folks on here with knowledge of calculating statistics and probability.

BTW, I've done it two other times (always on bar box) in the past. I've always used the break from the right side off the long rail to hit the second ball in the rack.
Click to expand...


You can't calculate that probability when everyone's break is different.
 
Secaucus Fats said:
Last night I made the eight on the break three times in a row on a newer 7ft Dynamo bar box. I'm wondering what the odds are on such an occurrence.
I figure we have to have a few folks on here with knowledge of calculating statistics and probability.

BTW, I've done it two other times (always on bar box) in the past. I've always used the break from the right side off the long rail to hit the second ball in the rack.
Click to expand...

I don't know the odds of making 3 consecutive 8 on the breaks but it has to be close to astronomical. Not trying to take away from what you did but IMO the 8 on the break for a win is ridiculous. I believe the 8 should be the last intended ball pocketed. In APA league play I see good players get beat often because their opponent makes the 8 on the break and does hardly any work. I also believe that a scratch on the 8 should not be a loss of game. But those ideas are just my 2 cents. :)
 
I watched my buddy do this...

Secaucus Fats said:
Last night I made the eight on the break three times in a row on a newer 7ft Dynamo bar box. I'm wondering what the odds are on such an occurrence.
I figure we have to have a few folks on here with knowledge of calculating statistics and probability.

BTW, I've done it two other times (always on bar box) in the past. I've always used the break from the right side off the long rail to hit the second ball in the rack.
Click to expand...

7' valley bar box, same break style! He also went 3 in a row. We still talk about it every time we play!
 
To make it once,,,I think its about 1 in 100. That's how often I make the 8. lol. But to do it 3 in a row,,is off the charts.
Things change if you practice for this. I see ppl try this every break,,and they get the 8 moving toward the pocket often. Odds would be better.
 
It's definitely a practiced, lucky thing. There's technique, but luck still plays into it more I think. Three in a row is pretty sick... I had a team mate go twice in a row in Vegas, and I thought he was going to pee his pants he was so pleased with himself.

Statistics was my first period hangover class, and I failed miserably. I don't have a clue what the odds are, but I agree with the earlier assessment of "astronomical".
 
Simplify it a bit. What are the odds to make it once? Assuming you are using a well practiced second ball break. Would you bet on it if offered:

10-1
15-1
25-1
50-1
etc
 
Well,,,Here you go,,,you all that go for the eight on the break.. Rack about 50 times in a row,,just for the break. Lets see the results. Keep it honest or it means nothing.lol
I don't know if I would do it,,,that allot of racking.
 
bazkook said:
I don't know the odds of making 3 consecutive 8 on the breaks but it has to be close to astronomical. Not trying to take away from what you did but IMO the 8 on the break for a win is ridiculous. I believe the 8 should be the last intended ball pocketed. In APA league play I see good players get beat often because their opponent makes the 8 on the break and does hardly any work. I also believe that a scratch on the 8 should not be a loss of game. But those ideas are just my 2 cents. :)
Click to expand...

I like the BCAPL 8 ball rules and that's usually how I play when I'm at the pool hall playing on a 9ft table. But 8 on the break (on a coin op bar box) wins, is so ingrained that it isn't going away any time soon.

Interestingly enough, the local pub's house rules treat a scratch on the 8 as a foul, not a loss, as long as the 8 is not pocketed. But ball in hand is behind the line.
 
8 ball on break

The break you use has been around on bar baxes since the late 60s at least.
Thats when someone showed it to me.
3 in a row I have never seen, but it goes a lot more often with that break.
I have seen 2 in a row many many times when I played in bars from 1968 to 1982.
That was the year a pilled up bar owner pulled a shotgun on me at 4 am and told me to come behind the bar. {I don't think he wanted to dance"}
I think a good breaker could make the 8 in the opposite side about 1 in 20 times if the rack is honest. {Maybe even more}
I used to shoot it from as close to the rail as I could get and still have my full hand on the table , hit the second ball as full as possible without hitting the head ball with center ball. Try hitting it with different speeds , it takes some force, but you don't need to hit it like a Kid Delicious 9 ball break.
I would not bet someone like Corey Deuel couldn't do it 1 in 15 or better.
As a side note ...I have not tried it on a bar table with the new super fast cloths, it may be totally different. the old problem was hitting the balls hard enough to get the 8 to the the side pocket without "overhitting" it and having too many unwanted kisses.
If you missed the shot the 8 usually hit the rail below the pocket or came up short on the right line a lot of times.
I would think the faster cloth would actually help the shot {Now I have to go try}!
 
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Overall, making the eight is probably 40/1 on most equipment, in my personal experience.

Based on that, you're three in a row is somewhere around 64000/1, I'd guess.

Some tables seem to get in a groove where your odds are much better. I've seen three in a row at nine ball and it went straight in the corner pocket every time. Tables playing like that might be less than 1000/1.

Did the eight go in the same pocket every time?
 
bud green said:
Overall, making the eight is probably 40/1 on most equipment, in my personal experience.

Based on that, you're three in a row is somewhere around 64000/1, I'd guess.

Some tables seem to get in a groove where your odds are much better. I've seen three in a row at nine ball and it went straight in the corner pocket every time. Tables playing like that might be less than 1000/1.

Did the eight go in the same pocket every time?
Click to expand...

First one went in the left side, the next one went in the other side, and the third went in the left corner in the kitchen area.
 
what are the various rulings on not hitting the head ball on the break? In the league I played in 15 or so years ago, the head ball was considered the first object ball for the breaker, and a second ball hit was a foul. I know that this is so for 9 ball or other rotation games, but am not sure how in-line with newer league rules this is. FWIW, a one-pocket break with enough force pushes the 8 towards the opposite side pocket as well, but it falls much less often....
 
deadhead said:
what are the various rulings on not hitting the head ball on the break? In the league I played in 15 or so years ago, the head ball was considered the first object ball for the breaker, and a second ball hit was a foul. I know that this is so for 9 ball or other rotation games, but am not sure how in-line with newer league rules this is. FWIW, a one-pocket break with enough force pushes the 8 towards the opposite side pocket as well, but it falls much less often....
Click to expand...

Under APA rules you can contact the head ball or the second ball only. Under BCAPL rules you can contact any ball but 8 on break is a foul not a win (8 gets spotted). Most local bar rules allow you hit either the head ball or the second ball.
 
In the late 60' I made the 8 , 3 times in a row . Got a free pitcher of beer with each one , which i gave to the loser each time . I had a route I took when in N. Hollywood . If I did good, after about 4-5 places i wound up at the jumpin Jack , that night I went straight to the jumpin Jack, and lost my ass . Jim
 
Not sure what the odds would actually be... but I would gladly give you 500 to 1 odds on ANY amount you would like to bet and I would even give you 5 breaks. Get 3 eight balls on 5 breaks and you win.
 
Stats

First determine the probability of him making the 8 on the break
using the break he uses. Then the probability of making it on 3
consecutive breaks can be calculated by cubing the denominator
for the probability of making it 1 time. If he can make it 1 in 10
tries the chances of him making it 3 times in a row is 1 / (10 x 10 x 10)
or 1 in 1000. 1 in 30 would yield a probability of 1 in 27000 of making
it on 3 consecutive attempts.

At the SBE about 10 years ago a guy I knew sunk the 9 ball seven breaks
in a row on a barbox. If the odds of making it once are 10 to 1 the odds of
making 7 in a row are 10 million to 1. Quite rare.


Ron F
 
You sure it was 3 times? Maybe it was trails and this belongs in your highest ever thread......:grin::D


:cool:
 
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