In the first post of this thread,
wrldpro commented that "...the 1 ball goes in the side pocket over 90% of the time." I assume he means the side pocket on the opposite side from the breaker. Last night, to show that the percentage isn't that high, I posted the successful break rate for the matches I tracked in 11 Matchroom-produced events held this year and last year. They all used the Matchroom break box and 4" corner pockets. The aggregate successful break rate was 78%.
GideonF then said, logically, that the percentage might even be higher late in the events, after less-skilled players are eliminated and the remaining players would "have a feel" for the tables. I explained that the matches I tracked in those events are either from the single-elimination stages, with the matches on the feature table, or from events that have no weak players (Mosconi Cup, Reyes Cup, Premier League).
But today I took a look at what the percentage would be for matches from the Last 16 and later rounds in 7 of the 11 events, plus matches involving the final 10 players in the two Premier League events, plus all of the matches in the most recent Mosconi Cup and Reyes Cup. This cut the total number of games down from 2,159 to 1,427, about a one-third reduction. So here are the results.
Successful breaks from the original group of matches -- 78.1% (1,687 of 2,159)
Successful breaks from the smaller group of matches -- 78.8% (1,125 of 1,427)
This is a pretty small difference. And it doesn't directly address
wrldpro's comment about how often the 1-ball goes in the side pocket. In some successful breaks the 1-ball is not pocketed at all (91 times out of the 1,125 successful breaks) or is pocketed but not in the side pocket opposite the breaker (10 of the 1,125). Also, the 1-ball is pocketed in the side pocket on some fouled breaks (52 of the 1,427). So the number directly corresponding to what
wrldpro said (how often the 1-ball goes in the side pocket) is 1,125 - 91 - 10 + 52 = 1,076 games out of 1,427, or
75.4%.
So, the 1-ball was pocketed in the side pocket on the opposite side of the table from the breaker:
- on 75% of all breaks (1,076 of 1,427)
- on 91% of successful breaks (1,024 of 1,125)
- on 73% of fouled breaks (52 of 71)