I looked at the first 10 minutes or so of your 61 ball run. Here's one comment I can make:
Look at the situation at 4:25. The worst thing you could have done was gotten the position you were trying to get! (position on the 3 to open up the cluster). There's another concept in 14.1 you should keep an eye on. That is, don't break clusters into the direction where other balls are already. In this case, you have 5 scattered balls along the foot rail, and you are about to send the cluster into that direction with a break on the 3. You risk creating new and potentially "fatal" clusters. I think a better idea would be to remove those balls on the foot rail and then worry about the cluster. OR, when you get to removing those foot rail balls, you may find opportunities to go into the bottom of the cluster while preserving one of the foot rail balls as a safety. As it is, you have 3 balls that could be used to open up the center cluster (the 3 and two striped balls that form a perfect triangle around the remaining 3 balls inside that triangle). So, I don't see an immediate need to mess with that cluster. You might even consider getting rid of that ball in the center of the table. You could follow the ball that is dead in the upper corner, or you could shoot the 2 with a little inside to get that striped ball next.
Anyway getting back to the subject, let's say you go ahead and shoot the 2 and now you are going to get the foot rail balls, which is what happened. You shoot the striped ball near the corner pocket and I think you make a mistake here. I don't know what is in your head, so I could be wrong. What I'm guessing you are thinking is that you will shoot that ball and then go into the other two balls and scatter them and see what your next shot will be. If that was your thinking, then it is another mistake. You should only "play the percentages" on what your next shot will be when you are forced to.
What you should be thinking on this shot is something like, "OK, I'm gonna pocket that ball and stun into the 14 ball on the rail. That will send the 14 off the rail probably between the 5 and 8, or at least out of the way of the 9 and 8. I will have a shot on either the 9 or 8, GUARANTEED.
OK, I think that about covers it. I always disclaimer that I'm not an expert, but I don't believe you will see much debate on the two points I'm making here -- 1. Don't create new clusters by breaking into traffic, 2. Have a plan for the cue ball position unless forced to play the percentages.
So at 4:25, My only problem in this rack at this point is the 7 and 5 ball. My thinking is to take care of that as soon as possible. So I chose to shoot the 2 and get a small angle on the 3 to BUMP the 7 into the 5, while having the 4 in the left side as my insurance. I am only looking to separate those two balls by a couple of inches. From what you wrote, you seem to think my plan was to splatter those balls. That is just not the case.
So that's what my thinking was. I understand the concept of clearing the side you are going to break to. I also consider when is the next chance I can take care of this problem. Then I have to balance the two and I think this is where I made a mistake. The stripe next to the 5 looks like it could be a break ball and I never considered at this moment that I could use that instead. So I am in a position to take care of this problem now without risking the run, remember I am only going to bump the 7 and 5.
Here is a recent run in case some of you are curious if I am playing any better. My
runs have not been higher than this lately. I don't know whats going on but I am still shooting straight.
45 Ball Run 15 May
I'm counting 42, not that anybody's counting. :grin:
I'm curious, if you remember, what your thought process was before the shot at 5:45. You bumped into what looks like a 1 or 5 ball. There is also a 15? ball next to that ball. Did the 15 ball also pass the 11 into the right corner pocket? It looks like it does. If I have two balls that are not tied up and go in the corner pocket, I'm not touching them unless I have a good reason. I know you know that any time you bump balls you create an uncertainty, which could result in 2 or 3 good balls being tied up. It just looked to me like you had so many shot options that you didn't have to do that, but that's just me.
OK, it's 12:15 and you have 7 open balls on the table plus your break ball. Have you determined your key ball, and have you determined the 3rd ball (to get you on the key ball)? I think you have the problem the rest of us have: getting a good simple shot on the key ball to give us a good break shot into the next rack. IMO you made a mistake here. Let's back it up one shot and look at things at 11:50. I want to know what my last 3 balls are. I can't tell colors so I'll guess. The 2 is the break ball of course. You have 4 balls in a square. The 10? ball is right in line with the side pocket and the 8 ball on the rail. The 8 is my 3rd ball and the 10 is my key ball. Just figure a way to get rid of the rest of the balls so that you end up nearly straight in on the 8. Duck soup from there out. I can see nearly stop-stop-stop on the 3 balls in front of you. Then get the 2 balls on the bottom rail and go 1 rail around the break ball for position on the 9 (probably the only semi tricky shot, but not really). That sets you up for the 8 and a textbook break shot will be available.
I looked at your very long position on the break ball position, and asked where it seemed the wheels fell off. For me it was when you shot the 8 ball.
I know they say to get rid of rail balls early, but not ALWAYS. I'd like to hear from others if they think this is a bad strategy.