My thinking was that if you're three balls into the run and haven't improved your odds then you probably failed to accomplish something important like a breakout or tight inside shape. So at that point, it's probably better to strategically punt.Colin Colenso said:Not sure I got you there Cory,
As my safety options usually drop the further I get into the out, the more I'd be tempted to attempt the out even if the odds decrease. eg. If I've got a 30% chance of making the 8-ball, with my opponent having 5 or so scattered balls around the table. I'm gonna go for it most likely.
But of course, situations are not always so simple. Hence Expected Value should be the main determinant. But as there are infinite table situations to consider, it's hard to generalize about them. But of course, if you're a 70% chance of going out, but a shot occurs where you can bump your ball into 99% out zone, leaving a safety which is 10% chance for the opponent to escape successfully from, you shoud take it.
But as a large percentage of games at the top level are basically clearance attempts first shot after break, it makes some sense to analyze a table in the terms I described I think. Which generally applied means go for the out most times you get half a chance.
lewdo26 said:3rd level: You play both groups and you figure you can play strategically until you're ready to run out (before the other guy is);
3.37 PLAY BY INNINGS
During the course of play, players alternate turns (innings) at the table, with a player's inning ending when he either fails to legally pocket a ball, or fouls. When an inning ends free of a foul, the incoming player accepts the table in position.
4.11 LEGAL SHOT
(Defined) On all shots (except on the break and when the table is open), the shooter must hit one of his group of balls first and (1) pocket a numbered ball, or (2) cause the cue ball or any numbered ball to contact a rail. Please Note: It is permissible for the shooter to bank the cue ball off a rail before contacting the object ball; however, after contact with
the object ball, an object ball must be pocketed, or the cue ball or any numbered ball must contact a rail. Failure to meet these requirements is a foul.
4.13 SCORING
A player is entitled to continue shooting until failing to legally pocket a ball of his group. After a player has legally pocketed all of his group of balls, he shoots to pocket the 8-ball.
Chris said:Here I'm a bit confused. Can I shoot at my opponent's group, provided I hit a ball from my group first? The WPA rules are not entirely clear with respect to this question.
3.37 and 4.11 seem to indicate that one can legally pocket an opponents ball (after hitter their own ball first), which allows one to continue with their inning. However, 4.13 indicates that the inning is over once one legally (or otherwise) pockets an opponents ball without also sinking a ball from one's own group, which is how I have usually played over the years.
Chris said:Here I'm a bit confused. Can I shoot at my opponent's group, provided I hit a ball from my group first?
This would only work with a lessor player. Shame on that guy for running his balls and missing the 8.Billy_Bob said:I was at a tournament where one player was down to the 8 which was hanging on a corner pocket. (BCA rules)
The other player had most of his balls left on the table and kept shooting safeties - shooting his balls to block any shot on the 8 ball. Then the other player (who was down to the 8) started pocketing his opponents balls with each shot he got - An "intentional foul" giving his opponent ball in hand.
So it was a battle for this guy to gain access to the 8, and remove his opponent's balls (by pocketing them) so he would have fewer balls with which to muck up the works.
Ditto. Against tough opposition, you're going to have to run out quite often. Strategy alone works only against players who, either don't shoot well, or aren't well-versed in 8 ball strategy.supergreenman said:This would only work with a lessor player. Shame on that guy for running his balls and missing the 8.
Jaden, I understand. I'm not suggesting 8 ball strategy should be by-passed. Far from it. What I'm referring to is the fact that the toughest your opposition, the more risks you'll have to take, and the more offensively you'll have to play to be competitive.Jaden said:There's a real problem with that. It is my opinion that you should try to learn the startegy from the very get go. If you don't then you open yourself up to forming some bad habits in ways that you look at the table. Don't praactice a strategy game like eightball or one pocket to get better at playing pool in general, play a game like nineball or do drills.....
When you play eightball or one pocket or even straight pool, you want to play it with the RIGHT strategy from the very first time you play ideally so you don't train yourself to look at the table wrong, even if you can't execute the right shots correctly, this will prevent you from limiting yourself strategically later on when you do have a good enough stroke to play at that level.
Billy_Bob said:So far as my skill level, I would say I am a "C" player. But a guy I can usually win against went to a large tournament and was told he was a "B" player. So maybe a "C" with elements of "B"?
Cory in DC said:My thinking was that if you're three balls into the run and haven't improved your odds then you probably failed to accomplish something important like a breakout or tight inside shape. So at that point, it's probably better to strategically punt.
But I agree, that if I get down to the 8-ball and have a 30% shot, that's usually much better than a safety. But then again, in that situation you might often hit it pocket speed to hang it in front of some of your opponent's balls even if you miss, which is at least a partial safety. So I think I'll have to add a quadratic term to my formula, to give it an inverted-U shape, reflecting that once you're down to 1-2 balls, failing to get out will usually cause you to lose, so you might want to go more aggressive.
But those are just general rules. Good 8-ball strategy is about recognizing the exceptions to the general rules (i.e., your EV calculations):
* Leave a hanger that's blocking balls until later in the run, except when it's better to start with that ball.
* Clear one end of the table, then the other, except when going up and down the table works better.
* Break open clusters early, except when later plays better.
* and so on...
Cory
Billy_Bob said:Boy am I glad I asked this question!
Thanks for all the excellent replies. I suspected there was a bit more to this game than I thought, but now I know how much there is I don't know.
The "leave your balls on the table until you can runout" thing sounds good. I experimented with this yesterday and noticed that by leaving all my balls on the table, I had a lot of "ammunition" readily available. I could shoot these balls to block the 8 or shoot them to block my opponent's balls.
Then the "percentage of runout possibility" idea is excellent. I do this with individual shots - how likely I am to make the shot. So excellent idea to do this with runouts. What percentage chance do I have of running out and making the 8?
So I think what I will try; is to determine if I can runout or not. If yes, attempt to runout. If I mess up, then remember what caused me problems and practice those things. If I can't runout, then leave my balls on the table and cause as much difficulty for my opponent as I can. And I will then have lots of "ammunition" with which I can "attack".
So far as my skill level, I would say I am a "C" player. But a guy I can usually win against went to a large tournament and was told he was a "B" player. So maybe a "C" with elements of "B"?
Eric. said:In NY, based on your shot selection and strategy from your posts, you'd probably be a "D" player or an APA 3 to 4. I sounds like you are at the first level above "bar shooter", which is a guy that just shoots at any available ball, plays no or little position and only deals with problems (in 8 ball) til the end...
Billy_Bob said:I'm just beginning to sometimes be able to do stuff like the above, but it is difficult. Getting easier every day though. I took 2nd in the tournament and took 2nd the week before. (I have made 1st a few times before.) I can usually get into the money in small local bar tournaments. But never get into the money in larger tournaments which have plenty of "A" and "B" players.