Sooo...any way to calculate the odds of running two 8-ball racks in a row on a bar box based on Fargo? My example: an established 350 Fargo: I'm thinking 400,00 to 1. Thoughts any math people? (Yes, of course it happened, and I smell a rat.) Just curious.
Break and Run Math - Odds
- Thread starter BarTableMan
- Start date
Doubt there's a way to calculate it. I know some high-rated players that are not "runout" players. Their rating got high because they refuse to lose and won't shoot a ball until it's a lock to get out. I saw one of these guys play a 40 minute game of 8-ball against a 450 player and pass up several chance to get out until he had all of his balls in the right places and BIH.
A 350 (established) running a 2 pack? Not a chance in hell.
I dunno I think anything is possible on a bar box. Especially on a standard valley table. I’ve seen players well below what would be 350 fluke their way through a run out. They just need the right layout.
Editing to also add, if you are sandbagging to keep your rating at 350 of all things, why would you put up a 2 pack?
Editing to also add, if you are sandbagging to keep your rating at 350 of all things, why would you put up a 2 pack?
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Did you see it with your own eyes? A 350 won’t have a CB good enough to break and run a 2-pack under typical circumstances. Maybe if the racks were super easy and were just rolling the CB it could happen.
But if the player had a decent CB and maneuvered his/her way through 2 typical racks I’d say the rating is low.
How often does the 350 run a rack that he breaks? Once in a season when he might break 200 times? Once in a year when he might break 500 times? Maybe 1 in 100 on a table with easy pockets?
Let's say he's one in 100 to run out from the break. As he gets up to break the first time, there is one chance in 100 he will run that rack and if he does run it, he then has 1 chance in 100 to run the next rack. You multiply those together to get 1 in 10,000 that he might run two racks as he comes to the table for the first break. Just square the probability for one break and run to find the chance for two.
This ignores any special circumstances on that day, like larger pockets from new cloth or he just learned how to draw a little bit. Or he's well rested because he didn't have to work that day.
But if he has already run one rack, the chance he will run a second rack at that point -- ignoring any psychological factors and such -- is then 1 in 100.
Slim odds but longer shots hit all the time. Bob did some math above. Three in a row would be pretty suspicious.
I tell my newer/lower rated players that the goal is not to make balls.
The goal is to win the game...
One amazing result I know of was at 3-cushion. I used to play with a guy whose lifetime high run was 8. That was pretty good for an average room player where we were. In a game to 25 he might have a high run of 3. One day he ran 16, back to back lifetime bests.
But the 350 mentioned above? I'd watch him carefully. Not accusing, just curious.
If he's a legit 350 he must be the kind who always goes for a shot.it’s also possible for someone at a 350 level to improve faster than a Fargo rating can reflect. At that stage, some lessons and practice over the summer months can easily gain you 50-75 points. It’s still unlikely to for a 425 player to run a two pack, but not impossible.One amazing result I know of was at 3-cushion. I used to play with a guy whose lifetime high run was 8. That was pretty good for an average room player where we were. In a game to 25 he might have a high run of 3. One day he ran 16, back to back lifetime bests.
But the 350 mentioned above? I'd watch him carefully. Not accusing, just curious.
I remember finishing my first year of university barely able to string two or three balls together. I came back in the fall after the break and ran out a 9 ball rack on a 9 foot table on my buddy. Not a 2-pack mind you but certainly night and day given where I was before.
I don’t know if you can get access to a bunch of different league stats, the end of season page. Looking at my own league, for the last 5-6 years, there is maybe one or two 350 players that have even one ERO.
If you put 10,000 legit 350 players in a building with 10,000 tables, how long would it take? Might happen in five hours, might take five days. What are the tables like, the ball set, the rack? How often do they even make a ball on the break? Not saying it can’t be done, might be there for two weeks
Maybe he hit a gear. In my history, I have played almost perfect pool three times for about an hour each time. One match, I lost the first two games which took 45 minutes (both playing bad). Opponent takes a Restroom break, and doesn't get to shoot again, except for 3 dry breaks. I had run out 5 consecutive racks on the Valley table, scratching on the 8 in the second one. I should have been in the A division that weekend, even though I normally didn't play that consistent.
I’m not trying to be a jerk, but I actually have to play with some 350 players. They don’t have a gear. Most are great people, we are friends, I’m always as helpful and polite as I can be. I doubt if most of them have two B+R in ten years
WobblyStroke
Well-known member
Lighting can strike. When I was in high school, maybe 17 years old and been playing for fun for about 5years, I had never ran a table. Boom. Ran out. The very next rack, I broke and ran again. I didn't run another table for 3 years when I started taking it seriously. It's not like I 'had a gear' as mentioned above. Things just clicked for those 10 or 15 minutes and then it was gone again. On a 9footer btw.
Closest comp I have data for: I have a guy on one of my teams who's an established Fargo 384, who also has played APA for years as an SL-4 in 8-ball and APA-5 in 9-ball. The cross comparison between his Fargo and his APA handcap checks out, so the APA data is valid IMO.
In 294 matches played in APA (8-ball), he has 0 break and runs, so that's at least about 1000 racks at least and probably in the 1200+ range? Most racks have been on Diamond bar boxes with Simonis (or equivelant) cloth - so a little bit tighter than a valley but less clustering on the break.
I think generously a Fargo 350 would B&R maybe 1 out of 1,000 racks on a bar box. So, I have it at about 1 in a million for a Fargo 350 to pull off a 2-pack, assuming they can psychologically hold it together after the first time.
The odds that you posted (I believe 40,000:1) would require a base B&R rate of once every 200 racks which I think is out of reach for a Fargo 350. I have one B&R in about 250 APA racks as an SL-5 (no official Fargo but I'm about even with the local 450's).
200 racks or 1000 racks is not really a whole lot, if you think about how many racks you pump through just warming up/practicing/screwing around with friends in addition to any league or tournament racks.
Sounds like 1 in 1000 is in the right ball park. I wonder if APA Headquarters keeps B&R stats.
The probability is maybe a little better than 1 in a million for the two pack because the "350" may have had more than one chance in the situation.
Still, there seems to be smoke. It would be interesting to know how the 350 ran out. Like, did he ever use draw?
Zerksies
Well-known member
The only way a 350 is running a two pack is if his rating is incorrect.
Funny story: My first night in the APA 8B. They put me at a 4 as they do with all new players. I won the lag then ran a five pack. I came in next week expecting to be a 7, Nope i was a 5 and got three patches.
Funny story: My first night in the APA 8B. They put me at a 4 as they do with all new players. I won the lag then ran a five pack. I came in next week expecting to be a 7, Nope i was a 5 and got three patches.
Actually, I think it pretty much is. Established ratings, take almost all variables into account. Once you are who you are, it’s not likely to be someone else.