Break Stats -- 2021 International 9-Ball Open, Oct. 2021

[AtLarge]

Here are some aggregate break statistics from the single-elimination portion of the 2021 International 9-Ball Open played October 24-30, 2021 at the Sheraton Norfolk Waterside Hotel in Norfolk, VA with pay-per-view streaming by Accu-Stats. Albin Ouschan defeated Dennis Orcollo in the Finals to win the event.

This was a 123-player event (5 no-shows) with double-elimination down to 32 players (16 on the winners' side and 16 on the one-loss side). A random draw then matched one player from each side against each other, with single-elimination play from that point to the conclusion.

Conditions -- The conditions for these streamed matches included:

- Diamond 9-foot table with 4¼" corner pockets;​

- blue Simonis cloth;​

- Accu-Rack racking template;​

- Aramith TV Tournament balls with a measles cue ball;​

- alternate breaks from the box -- 9" to each side of the long string;​

- referee racks with the 9-ball on the foot spot (2-ball need not be at the back of the rack);​

- 3-point break rule in effect -- the break is illegal (and non-breaker has an option to shoot) unless at least 3 object balls touch the plane of the head string or are pocketed, but this requirement is waived if 2 object balls are pocketed;​

- foul on all balls;​

- jump cues allowed;​

- 40-sec. shot clock with one automatic extension per player per rack (no violation if the player is down on the shot before the clock expires and shoots before getting up); and​

- all slop counts.​

The 15 matches (242 games) tracked were all streamed on the feature table, and are listed below in the order in which they were played. These 15 matches represented 48.4% of the event's total of 31 matches played in the single-elimination portion. The figures in parentheses for some of the matches are the Accu-Stats Total Performance Averages (TPA), as calculated by Accu-Stats and shown on the stream.

Wed., Oct. 27 (Round of 32)

1. Denis Grabe d. Earl Strickland 10-5​

2. Shane Van Boening (.895) defeated Jonas Souto (.772) 10-4​

3. Maximillian Lechner (.864) d. Aloysius Yapp (.810) 10-4​

Thurs., Oct. 28 (Last 16)

4. Grabe (.920) d. Naoyuki Oi (.889) 10-7​

5. Albin Ouschan (.911) d. Joshua Filler (.851) 10-6​

6. Ruslan Chinahov d. Bader Al-Awadhi 10-8​

7. James Aranas (.849) d. Alex Kazakis (.813) 10-7​

8. Dennis Orcollo (.911) d. Fedor Gorst (.867) 10-7​

Fri., Oct. 29 (Quarterfinals)

9. Aranas (.912) d. Omar Al-Shaheen (.881) 10-6​

10. Orcollo (.891) d. Grabe (.857) 10-7​

11. Van Boening (.941) d. Chinahov (.776) 10-4​

12. Ouschan (.966) d. Mika Immonen (.853) 10-3​

Sat., Oct. 30 (Semifinals and Final)

13. Orcollo (.939) d. Aranas (.884) 10-8​

14. Ouschan (.922) d. Van Boening (.915) 10-7​

15. Ouschan (.932) d. Orcollo (.852) 13-6​

Overall results

■ Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul) -- 72% (86 of 119) for match winners, 58% (71 of 123) for match losers, and 65% (157 of 242) in total​

​

■ Breaker won the game -- 65% (77 of 119) for match winners, 38% (47 of 123) for match losers, and 51% (124 of 242) in total​

​

■ Break-and-run games on all breaks -- 34% (40 of 119) for match winners, 21% (26 of 123) for match losers, and 27% (66 of 242) in total​

​

■ Break-and-run games on successful breaks -- 47% (40 of 86) for match winners, 37% (26 of 71) for match losers, and 42% (66 of 157) in total​

​

■ Illegal breaks -- 8% (9 of 119) for match winners, 20% (24 of 123) for match losers, and 14% (33 of 242) in total​

Here's a breakdown of the 242 breaks (for match winners and losers combined).

Legal, made at least one ball, and no foul:​

Breaker won the game: 107 (44% of the 242 games)​

Breaker lost the game: 50 (21%)​

​

Illegal, made at least one ball, and no foul:​

Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)​

Breaker lost the game: 19 (8%)​

​

Fouled (includes 4 breaks that were both fouled and illegal):​

Breaker won the game: 1 (0%)​

Breaker lost the game: 15 (6%)​

​

Legal, dry, and no foul:​

Breaker won the game: 12 (5%)​

Breaker lost the game: 28 (12%)​

​

Illegal, dry, and no foul:​

Breaker won the game: 2 (1%)​

Breaker lost the game: 6 (2%)​

​

Therefore, whereas the breaker won 51% of all games (124 of 242),​

He won 68% (107 of 157) of the games in which the break was successful (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul).​

He won 20% (17 of 85) of the games in which the break was unsuccessful (illegal, fouled, or dry).​

Break-and-run games -- The 66 break-and-run games represented 27% of all 242 games, 53% of the 124 games won by the breaker, and 42% of the 157 games in which the break was successful (made a ball, legal, no foul).

With alternating breaks, B&R "packages" of the normal type are not possible. But we can still look at the breaks of a given player and see how many he ran on his own successive breaks, and we can call these "alternate-break packages." The 66 break-and-run games consisted of 1 alternate-break 4-pack (Ouschan), 2 alternate-break 3-packs (Aranas and Ouschan), 9 alternate-break 2-packs, and 38 singles.

9-balls on the break-- The 66 break-and-run games included 4 9-balls on the break (1.7% of the 242 breaks). With the Accu-Rack, the 9-ball tends to remain close to its original position.

 

[AtLarge]

Miscellany from the data for the 2021 International 9-Ball Open
[This relates only to the 15 streamed matches I tracked from the single-elimination portion of the event, not to all matches in the event.]

• The most balls made on a single break was 4, done twice, once by Chinahov (he lost the game) and once by Orcollo (a win by B&R).

• The average number of balls made on all breaks was 1.2. On successful breaks (legal, made at least one ball, and did not foul), the average was 1.6, and the distribution was 50% 1 ball, 44% 2 balls, 4% 3 balls, and 1% 4 balls.

• 53% (129 of 242) of the games ended in one inning – 27% (66) won by the breaker (B&R) and 26% (63) won by the non-breaker. 10% (23 of 242) of the games lasted more than 3 innings.

• 44% (106 of 242) of the games were run out by the player who was at the table following the break. These run-outs were:

- By the breaker after successful breaks (B&R games) – 42% (66 of 157)​

- By the non-breaker after wet but illegal breaks -- 57% (12 of 21 )​

- By the non-breaker after fouls on the break – 88% (14 of 16)​

- By the non-breaker after dry breaks – 29% (14 of 48)​

• The player who made the first ball after the break:

- Won the game in that same inning 66% of the time (157 of 238)​

- Won the game in a later inning 14% of the time (34 of 238)​

- Lost the game 20% of the time (47 of 238)​

[Note -- total games used here are 238 rather than 242 to eliminate the 4 games in which no ball was made after the break.]​

• For the 14 races to 10 (i.e., excluding the Finals race to 13), the loser won an average of 5.9 games. No matches went to hill/hill; the most games won by the losing player was 8, twice. The most lopsided match was one at 10-3.

• The longest matches in elapsed time were two tied at 118 min. -- Grabe d. Oi 10-7 and Aranas d. Kazakis 10-7. The match highest in average minutes per game, at 7.1, was Van Boening d. Chinahov 10-4. The elapsed time was measured from the lag until the winning ball was made, so it includes time for racking and timeouts.

• The shortest match in elapsed time, at 68 minutes, was Ouschan d. Immonen 10-3. The match lowest in average minutes per game, at 5.1, was Grabe d. Strickland 10-5.

• The average elapsed time for the races to 10 was 95 minutes.

• The average minutes per game for all 15 matches was 5.9.

• Breaking fouls averaged 1 for every 15.1 games, other fouls 1 for every 6.5 games, and missed shots about 1 for every 2.1 games.

• About 41% of the games involved one or more safeties.

 

[AtLarge]

Here's a comparison of stats from the three years the International 9-Ball Open has been held (2021, 2019, and 2018). As ever, the stats are for the streamed matches I watched, not for all of the events' matches. For 2018 and 2019 I watched matches throughout the event; for 2021 I watched matches only during the single-elimination portion (final 32 players).

A few changes were made in the event for 2021:

• It was single-elimination for the last 32 players in 2021, double-elimination throughout (except a single race in the Finals) in 2019 and 2018;​

• Alternate breaks in 2021, winner breaks in the first two years;​

• If commentators were correct, the pockets were tighter in 2021, with 4¼" corners instead of 4½" in the first two years;​

• The 2-ball was racked at random in 2021, at the back of the rack in the first two years;​

• Races (except in the Finals) were to 10 in 2021, to 11 in the first two years.​

Breaks on which at least one ball was pocketed (includes all wet breaks even if illegal or fouled):

2021 -- 79% (190 of 242)​

2019 -- 78% (449 of 576)​

2018 -- 77% (537 of 699)​

Illegal breaks (whether wet, dry, or fouled):

2021 -- 14% (33 of 242)​

2019 -- 15% (88 of 576)​

2018 -- 14% (99 of 699)​

Successful breaks (broke legally, made at least one ball, and did not foul):

2021 -- 65% (157 of 242)​

2019 -- 65% (376 of 576)​

2018 -- 62% (435 of 699)​

Breaker won game -- on all breaks:

2021 -- 51% (124 of 242)​

2019 -- 53% (307 of 576)​

2018 -- 52% (363 of 699)​

Breaker won game -- on legal breaks:

2021 -- 57% (120 of 209)​

2019 -- 56% (274 of 488)​

2018 -- 54% (326 of 600)​

Breaker won game -- on illegal breaks:

2021 -- 12% (4 of 33)​

2019 -- 38% (33 of 88)​

2018 -- 37% (37 of 99)​

Break-and-run games -- on all breaks:

2021 -- 27% (66 of 242)​

2019 -- 26% (148 of 576)​

2018 -- 22% (154 of 699)​

Break-and-run games -- on successful breaks:

2021 -- 42% (66 of 157)​

2019 -- 39% (148 of 376)​

2018 -- 35% (154 of 435)​

Average number of balls made on the break:

2021 -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks​

2019 -- 1.1 on all breaks, 1.5 on successful breaks​

2018 -- 1.2 on all breaks, 1.6 on successful breaks​

Games ending in one inning:

2021 -- 53% (129 of 242)​

2019 -- 52% (298 of 576)​

2018 -- 48% (337 of 699)​

Run-outs from first shot after break:

2021 -- 44% (106 of 242)​

2019 -- 40% (230 of 576)​

2018 -- 37% (257 of 699)​

Games won by player who made the first ball after the break:

2021 -- 80% (191 of 238)​

2019 -- 80% (457 of 572)​

2018 -- 78% (540 of 691)​

Average minutes per game (includes time for racking and timeouts):

2021 -- 5.9​

2019 -- 6.0​

2018 -- 6.2​

 

[Bob Jewett]

...

• If commentators were correct, the pockets were tighter in 2021, with 4¼" corners instead of 4½" in the first two years;​

...​

This is what I was told by Diamond, as well. I think Greg Sullivan was also thinking of going to 4 1/4 on the Bigfoot but did not. Here are shots of the 9' pockets:

 

[AtLarge]

This is what I was told by Diamond, as well. I think Greg Sullivan was also thinking of going to 4 1/4 on the Bigfoot but did not. ...

Thanks, Bob. Most of the stats are similar between this year and the prior two events despite the tighter pockets. One might think that it was a more selective (higher skilled on average) group that I watched this year (only final-32 matches), but Accu-Stats is always pretty selective as to who they put on the stream even in the early rounds. Looking through the list of matches streamed in 2018 and 2019, I don't see too many players who had no chance to make the final 32 those years.

 

[AtLarge]

Total Performance Averages

Accu-Stats calculated and posted final TPAs for 13 of the15 streamed matches on the feature table in the single-elimination stage (see post #1 above). Some tidbits:

• The distribution of TPAs was

950+ -- 1 in total (1 for match winners, 0 for match losers)
900-949 -- 9 (8, 1)
850-899 -- 11 (3, 8)
800-849 -- 3 (1, 2)
750-799 -- 2 (0, 2)
< 750 -- 0​

• So "900's" were posted in 10 of the 26 player appearances (38%). Nine of the 13 match winners posted 900 scores (69%), whereas only 1 of the match losers did so.

• Tournament winner Ouschan appeared in 4 of those 13 matches. All of his TPAs were in the 900's, with a high of .966 and a mean of .933.

• Arithmetic means for the 13 matches -- .912 for match winners, .848 for match losers, .880 combined.

• Medians for the 13 matches -- .912 for match winners, .853 for match losers, and .8865 combined.

 

[Bob Jewett]

Total Performance Averages

Accu-Stats calculated and posted final TPAs for 13 of the15 streamed matches on the feature table in the single-elimination stage (see post #1 above). Some tidbits:
...

So it looks like a rule of thumb is that over .900 wins and under loses, at least at this level.

It would be interesting to see the differences -- winner minus loser. I wonder if any of those were negative.

 

[VVP]

Lots of stats there. Thank you. Do you have how many non-compliant breaks there were when a ball was pocketed on the break? If it's there, I missed it.

 

[AtLarge]

So it looks like a rule of thumb is that over .900 wins and under loses, at least at this level.

It would be interesting to see the differences -- winner minus loser. I wonder if any of those were negative.

No negative differences in the 13 matches with TPAs that I tracked this year. But there were 2 of those in the 23 matches with TPAs that I tracked last year (including a win by Ouschan at .769 over Ekonomopoulos at .780) and 3 of 26 in 2018.

A memorable instance of the loser having the higher TPA was at the U.S. Open 9-Ball Championship in 2015. Ko Pin-Yi, with the highest TPA (.953) in any of the streamed matches lost to Kenichi Uchigaki (.891 -- .062 lower than Ko) in a hill/hill match.

 

[AtLarge]

Lots of stats there. Thank you. Do you have how many non-compliant breaks there were when a ball was pocketed on the break? If it's there, I missed it.

Yes, 24 in those 15 matches -- 21 that would otherwise have been successful (made at least one ball and did not foul) and 3 that were also fouled. The other 9 illegal ("non-compliant") breaks in those matches were all dry, one of which was also fouled.

 

[VVP]

Yes, 24 in those 15 matches -- 21 that would otherwise have been successful (made at least one ball and did not foul) and 3 that were also fouled. The other 9 illegal ("non-compliant") breaks in those matches were all dry, one of which was also fouled.

Very good. Thanks! I am glad that they allowed rack with 2 balls pocketed to be compliant and did not require a third ball to cross the headstring else that would have added to the non-compliant breaks. Maybe they should get rid of the three point rule and leave it at the referee's discretion.

 

[AtLarge]

... Maybe they should get rid of the three point rule and leave it at the referee's discretion.

That has been done. For example, this year's World Pool Championship and U.S. Open Pool Championship (both Matchroom events) had no 3-point rule but required that the break be "forceful." I don't recall the table being taken away from anyone after the break, but some warnings might have been given (I forget to whom).

 

[jay helfert]

Who won the most matches, the even breaker or the odd breaker?

 

[AtLarge]

Who won the most matches, the even breaker or the odd breaker?

Well, since we can figure it (at least) two ways, the even breaker always wins!

[and so does the odd breaker!]

[[I've got a hunch some people might know what we're joking about.]]

 

[AtLarge]

But the winner of the lag won just 6 of the 15 matches tracked here -- 40%. That's odd.

 

[VVP]

Who won the most matches, the even breaker or the odd breaker?

That has been done. For example, this year's World Pool Championship and U.S. Open Pool Championship (both Matchroom events) had no 3-point rule but required that the break be "forceful." I don't recall the table being taken away from anyone after the break, but some warnings might have been given (I forget to whom).

I recall Shane being warned at the WPC. I thought he was breaking forceful and was surprised that he was warned. Shane also had a kind of "what you talking about" expression