Can I question my Fargo rating?

[mikepage]

Now that this thread has been bumped 7 months later, what is your current rating and robustness, @roger.p?

7 months ago, he was just getting established with a bit over 200 games. 160 of those games were from 2010 to 2015 and average about 12 years old. The preliminary rating from just those old games was around 580. The 160 old games carry very little weight--maybe just the equivalent of 10 recent games.

He now has a robustness of 281 (160 old and 120 new) and a rating around 625.
Does he play at 655 speed? I don't know. Maybe.
Does he play at 595 speed? I don't know. Maybe.

There is a lot of uncertainty in our assessment. 625ish is our best guess.

 

[Coos Cues]

If your opponents are between 450 and 550, we might imagine they average 500.

In a league for which opponents average 500,
a 600 is expected to win 67% of the games
a 660 is expected to win 75% of the games
a 700 is expected to win 80% of the games

It sounds like it all kinda fits. If your rating is in fact running a little high, it will likely come down with more play.

This sounds about right. The league in which I play the vast majority of my games reported to fargo probably averages about 450 or less. I win 80% of my league games and am plateaued at about 600.

What is the beauty of the system is when I play in events against other 600s I win about half the games. So even though my rating is derived from mostly playing weaker players it still seems pretty accurate.

 

[tomatoshooter]

What is the beauty of the system is when I play in events against other 600s I win about half the games. So even though my rating is derived from mostly playing weaker players it still seems pretty accurate

Definitely. I do seem to have a lot of matches playing above and below my rating by a large margin but, overall, the royal is probably very close to what fargo predicts.

 

[alphadog]

Definitely. I do seem to have a lot of matches playing above and below my rating by a large margin but, overall, the royal is probably very close to what fargo predicts.

This. My match history is like a Rollercoaster ride. Beating a better player decisively- losing to the same player decisively. Beating weaker players- losing to weaker players. And it all averages out fairly.