Jal said:
Correct as usual, Jim. Monty effectively says, "You can choose one door or two. If you choose two and either of them is the winner you win."
pj
chgo
Coin Flip Odds
- Thread starter StevenPWaldon
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Correct as usual, Jim. Monty effectively says, "You can choose one door or two. If you choose two and either of them is the winner you win."
pj
chgo
To anyone who thinks they really have a 66% chance who will raise their hand and bet that they can choose correctly 60 out of 100 times for $1000?
Same exact rules: I would know what cup the ball is under. You would choose one of 3 cups. I would remove one of the empty cups. You would now have the option to change your choice.
With a 66% chance of picking it right you should certainly be able to pick 60 out of 100 right?
Same exact rules: I would know what cup the ball is under. You would choose one of 3 cups. I would remove one of the empty cups. You would now have the option to change your choice.
With a 66% chance of picking it right you should certainly be able to pick 60 out of 100 right?
Here's the thing
Jal, you surely understand that us smart guys (I'll include Patrick here) need to be mutually supportive since we are struggling against huge odds! When it comes to counter intuitive stuff, and the Monty Hall problem is definitely counter intuitive, by definition, most people are going to not only come up with the wrong answer, but they'll be very confident in their choice. While we may battle valiantly against the forces of darkness (ignorance), we must accept the near certainty that we will lose!
Jal, you surely understand that us smart guys (I'll include Patrick here) need to be mutually supportive since we are struggling against huge odds! When it comes to counter intuitive stuff, and the Monty Hall problem is definitely counter intuitive, by definition, most people are going to not only come up with the wrong answer, but they'll be very confident in their choice. While we may battle valiantly against the forces of darkness (ignorance), we must accept the near certainty that we will lose!
Put me down for $10,000 right now and I will raise that amount as soon as the bank opens tomorrow.Luxury said:
Here is what I will bet the $10,000 on - I will bet the $10,000 that in 1,000 trials, I will pick MORE than 600 correctly. Bet?Luxury said:
Luxury said:
Sign me up! When and where? I'll bet more if there are more tries (for the same 60% success rate).
pj
chgo
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There's a ground Monty, there's a ground.....
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
Southpaw
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
Southpaw
Hey, Luxury, maybe I should let you know something here - in the pool world the two terms most often applied to me are probably "nit" and "locksmith." Does that help you decide whether to put up that $10,000? OK, I'll reveal something else - I'm a retired college professor who has taught probability and statistics. OK, one more thing, on the quantitative section of the Graduate Record Exam I scored in the top 1/5 of one percent. Still ready for some action?BillPorter said:
Man, it's fun to woof at someone when you have the stone cold nuts!
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I once won a bet with Titanic Thompson, but I didn't let him touch the cards. And you won't be tounching anything but your billfold.Luxury said:
OK, I guess I'll have to include you as one of the "smart guys!" Welcome to the club.Luxury said:
Well, no. The CIA keeps track of sex ratios at birth, and nearly all countries see more male births than female. In the US, the average is 1.05 males/female at birth, but for those over 65 the ratio has dropped to 0.73 males/female. See https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2018.htmljay helfert said:More bad news. The odds on having a girl are a little better than 50-50, but please don't tell anyone.
The figures may be skewed by social pressures against female children. I've heard that in some parts of China, the male:female ratio in young children is 3:2. That may lead to interesting consequences in 10-20 years.
As for the original question, it is also complicated by the fact that some families with two children have identical twins. Each birth has about 1/285 chance of being identical twins.
There are those with book smarts and those with street smarts and those with neither and those with both.
I can bet that I can choose correctly by switching my choice and being right over 60% because of book smarts.
I can win that you won't be right 60% of the time using my street smarts and some killer slight of hand.
Then there are those guys like Bill Porter who have both street smarts and book smarts and I can't win a lick off of him.
For the record I have never scammed money using my slight of hand, rather I have shown friends what to watch out for playing monte on the streets.
I can bet that I can choose correctly by switching my choice and being right over 60% because of book smarts.
I can win that you won't be right 60% of the time using my street smarts and some killer slight of hand.
Then there are those guys like Bill Porter who have both street smarts and book smarts and I can't win a lick off of him.
For the record I have never scammed money using my slight of hand, rather I have shown friends what to watch out for playing monte on the streets.
get a dictionary
Luxury, I usually don't harp on spelling, but this is the third time in the past half hour that I'm reading about your "slight of hand". If you're going to keep patting yourself on the back, at least learn how to spell it.
Luxury said:
Luxury, I usually don't harp on spelling, but this is the third time in the past half hour that I'm reading about your "slight of hand". If you're going to keep patting yourself on the back, at least learn how to spell it.
