Coin Flip Odds

[Ed Simmons]

Chill

This was the last time you did it on 5-27-08:

....and I thought Fatboy was a bad speller! The guys in this thread make him look like Webster!

If it keeps happening you will no longer be able to say you don't usually harp on spelling.

Luxury, before you get your panties in a bunch, re-read the thread you just quoted me from. I was responding to a thread where a guy had included a foreign-language forum. It was actually the Phillipine Tagalog language. The was no spelling correction going on there, just humor, and Fatboy even repped me for that one, because he prides himself on being the worst speller on this forum.

 

[StevenPWaldon]

13-pages! Whoda thunk?

 

[TX Poolnut]

13-pages! Whoda thunk?

The chances are 50/50.

 

[Luxury]

Luxury, before you get your panties in a bunch, re-read the thread you just quoted me from. I was responding to a thread where a guy had included a foreign-language forum. It was actually the Phillipine Tagalog language. The was no spelling correction going on there, just humor, and Fatboy even repped me for that one, because he prides himself on being the worst speller on this forum.

Well I was going for humor as well when I quoted you. Won't bother quoting the posts regarding "Mispelt" though because I don't think you would get my humor there either.

 

[JoeyA]

One other possibility...

...what if coin flips aren't 50/50? I'm not rehashing my last post, in case you're wondering. In all seriosity, I saw this episode of the Twilight Zone where a man bought a newspaper and tossed a coin in a box to pay for it (this is back in the day, when people did such things on the street). BUT GET THIS... the coin landed ON ITS SIDE! (OMG I KNOW!)

This man was worked at a bank, and could read the minds of those around him. It got him into trouble, but that's a long story. The important thing is that he could READ MINDS.

So I mean, what if we're going about this all wrong? Maybe I should try and land the coin on its side so I can hear the thoughts of others.

Please let me know what you have been drinking? I want some of it.
JoeyA

 

[enzo]

ive seen a coin land on its side. it was a nickle; surface-- a pool table. unreal. not that this "side phenomenon" will pragmatically change the statistics at all, but it does happen.

 

[klockdoc]

ive seen a coin land on its side. it was a nickle; surface-- a pool table. unreal. not that this "side phenomenon" will pragmatically change the statistics at all, but it does happen.

I think Jay Helfert once made remark to this happening to him also.

 

[klockdoc]

Is that like?

You have 3 coins totaling $.35.

One is not a nickel.

What are the other two coins?

See page two on table for answer

CueTable Help

 

[klockdoc]

2 headed coin

If you have a Cracker Barrel by your house, they sell a 2 headed nickel.

Looks just like an older Jefferson nickel. Don't really know how they can sell it, looks pretty real to me. (unless of course, you turn it over.. )

 

[PoolBum]

You have 3 coins totaling $.35.

One is not a nickel.

What are the other two coins?

The other two coins (that aren't the coin that's not a nickel) are nickels. The other coin, that's not a nickel, is a quarter.

 

[PoolBum]

Suppose you have exactly one cup of milk and one cup of Kahlua. You take exactly one teaspoon of the milk and mix it thoroughly with the Kahlua. Next you take exactly one teaspoon of that mixture, and put it back into the milk.

Question: Is there now more milk in the Kahlua or more Kahlua in the milk?

 

[Roadkill]

As you prepare to flip the coin, observe the top of the coin. If you flip the coin with your thumb onto carpet, it will land on the opposite side the majority of the time.

 

[JohnDoe]

I'd also have to disagree with this statement. If the variability of this situation only accounts for a plus or minus 0.5 percent variability in 10,000 flips, then this variability will ALWAYS hold true. For instance, if after 10,000 flips, you have 2500 heads, then there is no greater chance of having more heads than tails in the next 10,000 flips. The variability for heads and tails will remain the same for the next 10,000 flips, and 99.9 percent of the time, you will have 4950 - 5050 heads in the next 10,000 flips. The coin sill still play according to the laws of probability and statistics and there is still only a 50/50 chance of landing heads or tails, regardless of previous outcomes, the next 10,000 flips are independent upon the first 10,000.

Yes, statistically on paper, every time you toss a coin in the air, there is a fifty/fifty chance that it will land heads or tails......; however, that is not the reality of it. Also statistically, in the long hall if you flip the coin 10,000 times there will be a 99.9 percent chance that there will be between 4950-5050 heads or tails. so if after 7000 flips you have 2500 heads, then statistically there is a greater liklihood that it will be heads on any given flip until it gets closer to even. If you've only flipped the coin ten times the chances are less but they are still greater to hit the opposite of whichever is in the lead.

Another way to illustrate it is to describe how counting cards in blackjack works. If the count is plus fifteen, there is still a 1 in 52 chance of any individual card falling out of the deck, but there's closer to a 75% chance that it will be a 10 or higher. Of course you casn argue that it is not a valid comparison because there are a finite amount of cards in the deck, but it IS still the same priniciple, there are also a finite number of possibilities as to which side of the coin it will land on, of course it could always land on its' side.

Jaden

 

[Rocket354]

Suppose you have exactly one cup of milk and one cup of Kahlua. You take exactly one teaspoon of the milk and mix it thoroughly with the Kahlua. Next you take exactly one teaspoon of that mixture, and put it back into the milk.

Question: Is there now more milk in the Kahlua or more Kahlua in the milk?

Should be the same ratio. That is the mostly-milk has the same percentage Kahlua as the mostly-Kahlua has milk.

 

[jimmyg]

Suppose you have exactly one cup of milk and one cup of Kahlua. You take exactly one teaspoon of the milk and mix it thoroughly with the Kahlua. Next you take exactly one teaspoon of that mixture, and put it back into the milk.

Question: Is there now more milk in the Kahlua or more Kahlua in the milk?

First thought: Isn't the original cup of milk less diluted with Kahula than the original cup of Kahlua that was diluted by an entire teaspoon of milk?

Edit: Second thought: the entire cup of Kahula was diluted by one teaspoon of pure milk, but the remaining milk was one teaspoon less than a full cup diluted by one teaspoon of a mixture of Kahula and milk. So, I must agree with Rocket and say the same ratio.

Oh Hell, drink them both, I like Kahula and milk.

Uh Oh, here I go again.

Jim

 

[Patrick Johnson]

Suppose you have exactly one cup of milk and one cup of Kahlua. You take exactly one teaspoon of the milk and mix it thoroughly with the Kahlua. Next you take exactly one teaspoon of that mixture, and put it back into the milk.

Question: Is there now more milk in the Kahlua or more Kahlua in the milk?

Isn't the original cup of milk less diluted with Kahula than the original cup of Kahlua that was diluted by an entire teaspoon of milk?

Uh Oh, here I go again.

Jim

No, because the original cup holds a smaller amount when you add back to it (remember, you took a spoonful out of it). But I had to draw a graph to see what the results would be: same ratios in the end.

pj
chgo

 

[jimmyg]

No, because the original cup holds a smaller amount when you add back to it (remember, you took a spoonful out of it). But I had to draw a graph to see what the results would be: same ratios in the end.

pj
chgo

I had already re-thought and edited my original post to agree with your theory.

Just needed that morning coffee.

Jim

 

[BillPorter]

No, because the original cup holds a smaller amount when you add back to it (remember, you took a spoonful out of it). But I had to draw a graph to see what the results would be: same ratios in the end.

pj
chgo

Patrick, Wikipedia offers a nice analysis of this problem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wine/Water_mixing_problem

As it turns out, it is irrelevant whether you mix well or poorly when you add one liquid to the other.

 

[catscradle]

Yes, statistically on paper, every time you toss a coin in the air, there is a fifty/fifty chance that it will land heads or tails......; however, that is not the reality of it. Also statistically, in the long hall if you flip the coin 10,000 times there will be a 99.9 percent chance that there will be between 4950-5050 heads or tails. so if after 7000 flips you have 2500 heads, then statistically there is a greater liklihood that it will be heads on any given flip until it gets closer to even. If you've only flipped the coin ten times the chances are less but they are still greater to hit the opposite of whichever is in the lead.

Another way to illustrate it is to describe how counting cards in blackjack works. If the count is plus fifteen, there is still a 1 in 52 chance of any individual card falling out of the deck, but there's closer to a 75% chance that it will be a 10 or higher. Of course you casn argue that it is not a valid comparison because there are a finite amount of cards in the deck, but it IS still the same priniciple, there are also a finite number of possibilities as to which side of the coin it will land on, of course it could always land on its' side.

Jaden

That is not true. Every coin flip is an independent event uninfluenced by previous flips. I don't care if 5000 heads have come up in a row, the next flip is 50/50 unless it is an unfair coin (i.e. weighted to influence outcome).

 

[Patrick Johnson]

Of course you casn argue that it is not a valid comparison because there are a finite amount of cards in the deck, but it IS still the same priniciple

No, it's not.

pj
chgo