SpiderWebComm said:
I give you props - you called it. The leave is almost a non-issue-- the 9 ball is frozen to the bottom rail. Truthfully, I'm making that 9 from anywhere on the table almost (not a good test). A better test would be to setup the 9 about an inch off the rail and then run out during each try.
I really didn't put much time into it - and it's a shot I never practice. I feel if it's a shot I have to make, I feel in my gut I should make it. If I hadn't just got home from work, and it was a Saturday so I could loosen up a bit and get into stroke, I think I should get out often enough to not duck. Let's say if I'm playing well and I get out 70% of the time from there...who would duck on 70% if you want to win? If I'm betting someone $100 / out and I get out 70% of the time, I'd never have to work another day in my life.
Maybe if I'm motivated this weekend I'll try again - complete with the runouts. It wouldn't surprise me to get a 10/10 with a runout on tape. So, at what point would you justify shooting the shot and not ducking? That's my only point. In a game situation, I feel MORE drive to get out than drinking my ice tea and worrying about my cats jumping up.
EDIT: No need for a digital cam. I used a $30 webcam and windows movie maker. Total investment: $30. Anyone on AZ can afford that.
The shoot or duck issue is an interesting discussion. Your argument that
"If I'm betting someone $100 / out and I get out 70% of the time, I'd never have to work another day in my life"...is flawed.
In a match at hill/hill which was one of my examples, you don't have a SERIES of bets to win...you have ONE bet to win or lose.
The strategy in the situation at hand is...Can I play a shot, the result of which would upwardly adjust my chances of winning?
What the safety does is exchange a possible sell out to a position from which your opponent is faced with a FAR lower probability of making the 8 and a sell out if he doesn't.
Let me use different numbers to prove the point. If you have a 51% probability shot, then should you ALWAYS take it because, over time, you turn out to be a winner?
I don't think many would agree that you should.
SOMEWHERE between 50-99% there is a correct "shoot or duck" line to be drawn and there are a LOT of variables including the score of the match...the money on the line and the skill of the other player relative to the shot you would leave if you duck.
For example, if your opponent is a notoriously bad banker and you are an excellent banker then you should be more inclined to duck a low probability shot because you are going to leave a bank and if your opponent ducks, he's going to leave you a bank.
In another post, I see you went 10/10. EXCELLENT shooting. You say you are a "loser" and not a "player" but that isn't true. Are you fishing for compliments??? (-:
Not to take anything away from you...but look at the TREND of your success after practice. The more you practiced the shot, the better you got. No surprise there.
But trust me...in a real world situation...where you are faced with a shot that you have NOT practiced dozens of times in the hours prior to the time it comes up, your first 6 attempts would be more descriptive.
You missed twice out of 6 and got 2 questionable leaves.
Finally, as far as making the frozen 9 Ball from "practically anywhere on the table...slow down there big fella!
Sure we can all do the "rail first/spin it in" shot on that 9 ball from, say, a diamond to the left of the head spot but is that a high percentage shot for you too?
If so, you ain't no "loser" pardner...
(-:
Jim
