Fargo question- could be a dumb one…

[hang-the-9]

In the Fargorate discussion don't forget the robustness factor. Even with the 250 entries or whatever the minimum is to call a rating established there's a wide range for adjustment. Players with large robustness numbers can be analized by 25 point differences accurately. A minimum robustness number could still be off by 50 points easily.

50 points is not much in Fargo, it's the range of error and player variance. A 400 can play like a 350 or a 450 on any given night. I mean we are human not machines. For a 500, 50 points is a 10% change, that is not that much over time, and I bet most of us would not notice a 10% +- change in anything without a measurement we can see or comparison. For example, if you sat in a car and it went 6 seconds to 60, and another car a bit later went 5.4, I would bet that it would not be easy to say which one was faster without having the two cars racing side by side or with a timer. Or if you threw a ball 50 yards and then one 55 yards, without seeing where the ball lands probably no one can say how far each toss went, humans have a hard time estimating things close to each other.

I think I read a study where it took about a 30% difference for a person to clearly notice a difference without being not sure about it. That is a normal average thing of-course, I am sure some experts can spot differences in things closer than normal people, like a weightlifter can probably say for sure a weight is 100 lbs vs 110 lbs when a guy off the street may view those as the same.

 

[BasementDweller]

I think the evolution of breaking strategies has as much to do with it. No one is trying to crush the rack like Johnny Archer anymore, instead they are doing controlled medium breaks. I tried a few racks with the delta rack last night doing a medium break and I still wasn’t getting many clusters. The template may help players beat the pro ghost, but I think the guys beating the ghost in the ghost challenge thread would have similar results just by virtue of increased breaking knowledge today among good players.

This is all true but I think we tend to underestimate the breaking knowledge previous generations had. So I don't think the knowledge of breaking strategies is all that earth shattering, even going back to Joe Tucker's info. But, the pandora's box of EXPECTING a perfect rack did not open until the Sardo was rolled out. Once it did, the break went from being a combination of gamesmanship and randomness to a totally controlled trick shot. So I think it was more driven by technological innovation than knowledge expansion. It's interesting that the pro game is sort of going backwards now.

 

[gregcantrall]

USPPA was also pretty close to the ratings you mentioned. You're a west coast guy, right? USPPA was pretty big out there before Tony ripped everyone off.

You got it. West coast and they held handicap tournaments with the Reno Sands 9 ball pro events. I wasn't in the system when I first started going to watch the pros in '85. Just remember the discussion of the handicap winners always contained the word Sandbag or Sandbagger. Seems the amateur event was always won by a low rated player. It was in the mid '90s that I briefly got rated.

 

[Bob Jewett]

... and if you think it matters if playing a set or game by game is different in seeing if you can beat the ghost you are short on math skills.
because if you dont know simple probability you cant ever really make sound decisions about what to do.
...

The main thing to remember is that the longer the race, the more likely the better player will win. If you are 55% to win one game against someone you are 62% to beat them in a race to 5 and 68% to beat them in a race to 11. In match ups, the stronger player will want to play longer sets for more money.

To get this back to FargoRate, the above difference in player skill is 29 FargoRate points apart (regardless of the level of the players). The FargoRate site has a tool that lets you calculate all those match probability percentages. For the race to 11, for example, the tool lets you know that if the weaker player gets two games on the wire, the odds are close to 50-50.

 

[Gatz]

I would feel pretty comfortable betting against a 670ish player in a race to 7 on a 9ft table against the ghost.

 

[Bob Jewett]

You got it. West coast and they held handicap tournaments with the Reno Sands 9 ball pro events. I wasn't in the system when I first started going to watch the pros in '85. Just remember the discussion of the handicap winners always contained the word Sandbag or Sandbagger. Seems the amateur event was always won by a low rated player. It was in the mid '90s that I briefly got rated.

The USPPA was based on weekly handicapped nine ball tournaments. There were inning-by-inning scoresheets. Basically, the number of offensive shots you needed to win a rack determined your rating, which ran from something like 30 to 150. It was easy to sandbag -- just mark safes as offensive shots. Shoot some near misses against weaker players. I was told that one local TD filled out the sheets after the weekly tournament.

The lousy system used by the USPPA was one of the reasons I created the format for the NPL which only counted wins and losses, just like Fargo. That did not prevent sandbagging, but you had to actually lose games in the weekly to drag down your rating. A couple of players very obviously did just that. When they got to the quarterly with added money, they were told that if they wanted to play, it would have to be at their real skill level.

 

[maha]

The main thing to remember is that the longer the race, the more likely the better player will win. If you are 55% to win one game against someone you are 62% to beat them in a race to 5 and 68% to beat them in a race to 11. In match ups, the stronger player will want to play longer sets for more money.

its the total of games played that will tell you your percentage of winning. whether it is in sets or single games. that was my point. perhaps not explained well.

over time they will win the same whether playing sets or game by game.

in real life playing for money .. you win more game by game,, as players tend to quit after losing one or two sets in a row. as each set is a final outcome. while game by game they tend to keep playing till all their money is gone.

 

[Bob Jewett]

... in real life playing for money .. you win more game by game,, as players tend to quit after losing one or two sets in a row. as each set is a final outcome. while game by game they tend to keep playing till all their money is gone.

Some players are going to quit after the first loss whether one game or one set. They may bet higher on a set.

But there are players like you describe. They tend to want to raise the bet.

 

[CocoboloCowboy]

Since all of the tournaments are handicapped by Fargo ratings, why not open the tournaments up to all players? Since everyone believes in Fargo, and most people think they're under rated, why on Earth would they keep capping tournaments? I'm not joking, they have a 643 and under tournament... WTF?

Well you should start a petition where you play, or better yet start your own Tournment just like you vision.

All you need do is find venue to do things the way you would think would go over big.

All you need put into venture is your time, money, and energy.

Show everyone how it’s done successfully.

 

[SBC]

Don't you mean your more around 590 fargo speed?

Brian

Can a 590 run 168 in straight pool, 7 pack of 9 ball on a 9 foot?

I'm am APA 0 cuz I'd never play that nonsense.

 

[SBC]

Don't you mean your more around 590 fargo speed?

Brian

Problem with pool is pimples like you won't bet water is wet....adults playing for patches and 5 inch trophies.

I played for money for decades...go to SBE or wherever play wide open. 500 to 1000 a set for days the last several times. Even that's gotten old because people want to put up champions or play for peanuts.

 

[SBC]

Fargo means nothing unless you play in events that report to fargo.

Get in the box and beat someone for the cash...the only real way to keep score.

 

[SBC]

Fargo is nothing but a tracking tool of who beats who and by how much, just like what people did for years in their heads or on notebooks or whatever. It just so happens that this info is a good tool to also do handicapping, which has also been done for ages. It's just based on science and data keeping now more than on feelings and eyewitness accounts of how someone plays. Every other part of pool still exists, and I actually think from traveling around and meeting players that maybe half of the decent players, especially anyone over 50, and even less of the weaker players, has no idea what Fargo is even if they heard the term used. Heck, I met decent players that have never used or seen a template rack.

The #1 question I get from people is "what is your APA rating"? Not about Fargo or how good I am in ABCD rating, etc... Most players still use APA as the gold standard of how good someone is, and for many just being in a league or entering a tournament is an amazing feat that makes someone good LOL.

APA 7 barely scratches the scratches the surface of "player level " pool. Playing somebody's wife 5 games to 2 means jack. Playing on barboxes won't get you there either. Playing tough games, versus tough competition on tough tables is all that does.

Go to Derby or SBA and play strangers for at least a couple hundred a set....play anybody except champions you know. At SBE I'm the guy with 30 bucks in quarters on the rail and the pros are watching me asking "are you still at it"!

Mr. APA 7
I don't know who you are. If you come to Syracuse I'll play you 3 sets $1000 each on a 9 foot Diamond. I barely hit a ball in 8 months and I own a room and have a table at my house. A guy like you would make me come out of retirement. I'd break you, your buddy and your old lady...and give you gas money to get home.

 

[SBC]

Some players are going to quit after the first loss whether one game or one set. They may bet higher on a set.

But there are players like you describe. They tend to want to raise the bet.

I always found making money playing pool is like fishing. Get out early, stay out and put lines in the water. Be the guy that will always play a fair game and give weight where it's needed. Stay active and win 55% of your sets and you make consistently.

Don't play champions because it's a tougher road and its almost never their money so they have no pressure.

Around here pool is dead, no reason to stay in stroke. Worse every year til there's next to nothing.

 

[SBC]

APA 7 barely scratches the scratches the surface of "player level " pool. Playing somebody's wife 5 games to 2 means jack. Playing on barboxes won't get you there either. Playing tough games, versus tough competition on tough tables is all that does.

Go to Derby or SBA and play strangers for at least a couple hundred a set....play anybody except champions you know. At SBE I'm the guy with 30 bucks in quarters on the rail and the pros are watching me asking "are you still at it"!

Mr. APA 7
I don't know who you are. If you come to Syracuse I'll play you 3 sets $1000 each on a 9 foot Diamond. I barely hit a ball in 8 months and I own a room and have a table at my house. A guy like you would make me come out of retirement. I'd break you, your buddy and your old lady...and give you gas money to get home.

Apa7 stay on the porch son....that's where you belong.

 

[APA7]

Apa7 stay on the porch son....that's where you belong.

Would you play Fargo races against all comers with you playing as a 690???

 

[gregcantrall]

always found making money playing pool is like fishing. Get out early, stay out and put lines in the water

Heh heh, I learned many varieties of fishing. Ponds, lakes, rivers and streams all with different techniques. On the water I prefer plugging for bass. It's active and exciting catching a big one. On the tavern pool table my preferred method was more like bobber fishing for catfish. Just before the afternoon happy hour. I would rack 'em 9 ball then take a seat at the bar with my beer. Just watching their eyes as they entered the bar. Easy to tell when I might have action. Fish On!!

 

[SBC]

Heh heh, I learned many varieties of fishing. Ponds, lakes, rivers and streams all with different techniques. On the water I prefer plugging for bass. It's active and exciting catching a big one. On the tavern pool table my preferred method was more like bobber fishing for catfish. Just before the afternoon happy hour. I would rack 'em 9 ball then take a seat at the bar with my beer. Just watching their eyes as they entered the bar. Easy to tell when I might have action. Fish On!!

Hell yeah.

 

[SBC]

Would you play Fargo races against all comers with you playing as a 690???

Playing you champion...cuz you run your mouth.

I been there and done that. Traveled to the major tournaments, matching up with strangers who are players. Own a room, hosted pros. Built cues, refinished tables. Play all kind of games on 9 foot tables, with a table home for the past 20 years.

Basically I have a PhD in pool, you are in 10th grade.

I'll post $ with your mom. $1,000 a set, 3 set minimum.

 

[APA7]

Playing you champion...cuz you run your mouth.

I been there and done that. Traveled to the major tournaments, matching up with strangers who are players. Own a room, hosted pros. Built cues, refinished tables. Play all kind of games on 9 foot tables, with a table home for the past 20 years.

Basically I have a PhD in pool, you are in 10th grade.

I'll post $ with your mom. $1,000 a set, 3 set minimum.

If you are playing as a 690, we can bet on me and ANYONE you are crazy enough to bet against

Brian