Fargo Rate - Not Much Math Here

Edit.. I am replying to your reply which was not what I meant in my post LOL. You posted "run a rack in 4 tries" which seems to mean break and run, but I meant run a rack in 4 tries meaning 4 innings in a rack, not a 25% break and run rate.

There is no way a maxed-out APA player will not be able to run out a rack in under 4 innings most of the time with an open table. Not saying they will do so every single time, but most open table layouts for a 7/9 would be a one or two inning game, maybe 3 at times if it's not a 7-footer. It's just impossible to max out any league and not be able to run out well.
You're right - I did misunderstand. Perhaps a better way to word that is like you just did, four misses to finish a rack. For reference, I always read "run a rack" as all in the same turn (isn't that how it's supposed to be read, hence the word "run"?).
 
I creeped on the OP a bit (sorry!), he only had a few posts over the years. This one he signed with his real first name and last initial. I looked up variations of this name on the FargoRate phone app, and didn't find anything close. I also didn't find anything on digitalpool's website (but search there is poor).

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Found him. Full name whited out by me. Looks sir like you play jam up. 705 preliminary rating, 71 robustness, no starter rating. Open speed for sure, even if you played out of your mind this particular tournament (or many tournaments). I couldn't find the tournament in digital pool. I found the name there, but no match history (its search is hit or miss, even for my own matches).

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The OP is also a father/son duo of Martin and Marty K that play together. APA tournament results articles have been written about them. That can easily mess up the fargorate if a TD mixed them up, especially if one is way stronger than the other.

Recommend you email fargorate and have them add a sr and jr to the names.
 
Do you have stats on how “reliable” early results tend to be compared to established ratings? Like how 100 robustness for John Doe compares to 500 or 1000?

I’ve seen some examples of local people who were off by 50 or more points based on early results (and settle up or down to the correct level with more games), although by and large most seem to be about right (like maybe within 10 or 20 points of where they end up).

I also wonder whether the reliability of the low robustness results also can be influenced by low robustness of opponents.
Answering your last question first, yes, ratings are more uncertain at any robustness when FargoRate doesn't know much about your opponents.

But in "typical" situations, where we know most of your opponents but some are more unknown, the situation is about as follows:
Let's say your rating is 500, and it is based on X games. We want to say there is a two-thirds chance your actual skill is within U points of 500

U is about 283/sqrt(X)

So when X=200, U=20 points

When X=800, U=10 points

When X=50, U=40 points

The players in my local group had a little over 100 games on average, and we expect the preliminary ratings are probably within 30 points. And the graph relating to my judgment kind of aligns with this.
 
I want to hear the Vito story : -)

Lou Figueroa
lol

Started at Starbucks. Too many Mikes on the planet, and you notice it in a small crowd waiting for your Cappuccino with a name on the cup.
So I thought I don't really need to be MIKE at Starbucks, I can choose a Starbucks name that is unique and easy to say. I chose Vito. Before long, the Starbucks people greet me as Vito.

The first time I entered a small tournament here, they put me on as "Mike." Then another Mike showed up and they changed me to Mike P, until they realized he was also Mike P... So I said, put me in as Vito. Then they started calling me Vito and put me in the next week as Vito even though there were no other Mikes...
Now I'm...just... Vito
 
...snip... The way people normally get a starting rating is that whoever puts them in would put in a best guess for them based on known skill level. If some APA 7/9 comes in to a first Fargo event, they would be started at about a 550/600. If a guy you never met shows up, and takes 4 tries to run a rack, you would put them in as a 300/350.
....snip...
To add to this, it takes a person with special ability to give someone a starter rating. I'm now a "once in a while TD", with about 20ish tournaments under my belt using digitalpool. There is zero way I can assign someone a starter rating that makes it back to FargoRate headquarters. I can give someone a rating for MY particular tournament (if it's handicapped and needed), by hand typing a number in digitalpool when I create the player entry. However, that number never leaves the bracket of MY tournament.

I believe only a league operator using LMS software can give someone a "Starter" FargoRate.
 
Answering your last question first, yes, ratings are more uncertain at any robustness when FargoRate doesn't know much about your opponents.

But in "typical" situations, where we know most of your opponents but some are more unknown, the situation is about as follows:
Let's say your rating is 500, and it is based on X games. We want to say there is a two-thirds chance your actual skill is within U points of 500

U is about 283/sqrt(X)

So when X=200, U=20 points

When X=800, U=10 points

When X=50, U=40 points

The players in my local group had a little over 100 games on average, and we expect the preliminary ratings are probably within 30 points. And the graph relating to my judgment kind of aligns with this.
How difficult is it to raise your FargoRate once you hit 200 matches and become “established”? I’m asking because I took about 7–8 years off from playing and just came back this session for BCA. It took me a good portion of the session—probably the first two-thirds—before I really started feeling comfortable again.
During that time, I lost quite a few games to players I’m normally much stronger than, and it’s definitely dragged my rating down. I’m hoping next session I can get things back on track, but I’m curious how much movement I should realistically expect after hitting 200 robustness, right now im only at 80 so i'm not too worried.
 
lol

Started at Starbucks. Too many Mikes on the planet, and you notice it in a small crowd waiting for your Cappuccino with a name on the cup.
So I thought I don't really need to be MIKE at Starbucks, I can choose a Starbucks name that is unique and easy to say. I chose Vito. Before long, the Starbucks people greet me as Vito.

The first time I entered a small tournament here, they put me on as "Mike." Then another Mike showed up and they changed me to Mike P, until they realized he was also Mike P... So I said, put me in as Vito. Then they started calling me Vito and put me in the next week as Vito even though there were no other Mikes...
Now I'm...just... Vito
That's a cool way to get your pool nickname. Mike "Vito" Page
 
How difficult is it to raise your FargoRate once you hit 200 matches and become “established”? I’m asking because I took about 7–8 years off from playing and just came back this session for BCA. It took me a good portion of the session—probably the first two-thirds—before I really started feeling comfortable again.
During that time, I lost quite a few games to players I’m normally much stronger than, and it’s definitely dragged my rating down. I’m hoping next session I can get things back on track, but I’m curious how much movement I should realistically expect after hitting 200 robustness, right now im only at 80 so i'm not too worried.
This is from Iusedtoberich, post # 39. He was 480 with 87 games and then 547 when he reached 200 games a few months later



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How difficult is it to raise your FargoRate once you hit 200 matches and become “established”? I’m asking because I took about 7–8 years off from playing and just came back this session for BCA. It took me a good portion of the session—probably the first two-thirds—before I really started feeling comfortable again.
During that time, I lost quite a few games to players I’m normally much stronger than, and it’s definitely dragged my rating down. I’m hoping next session I can get things back on track, but I’m curious how much movement I should realistically expect after hitting 200 robustness, right now im only at 80 so i'm not too worried.

Main part in getting to a real level that would match your skill at the table would be how often you play and the level of play. It all depends on you. It will not hop around too much once you have an established rating, it's not like the APA or TAP leagues where people can go up and down levels seemingly every other week. If you play one league match a week but are just taking the rust off your skill and are improving quickly, it may take a while before the rating catches up to your progress. My son runs a league using Fargo, and because many of the players were new to the game a year or two ago, but are very dedicated to improving, they are getting better faster than the ratings can keep up with.
 
lol

Started at Starbucks. Too many Mikes on the planet, and you notice it in a small crowd waiting for your Cappuccino with a name on the cup.
So I thought I don't really need to be MIKE at Starbucks, I can choose a Starbucks name that is unique and easy to say. I chose Vito. Before long, the Starbucks people greet me as Vito.

The first time I entered a small tournament here, they put me on as "Mike." Then another Mike showed up and they changed me to Mike P, until they realized he was also Mike P... So I said, put me in as Vito. Then they started calling me Vito and put me in the next week as Vito even though there were no other Mikes...
Now I'm...just... Vito

HAHA, my name is Lazar. When I enter tournaments and they ask for my last name, I usually tell them if another Lazar shows up for this tournament, I am buying the bar a round LOL
 
How difficult is it to raise your FargoRate once you hit 200 matches and become “established”? I’m asking because I took about 7–8 years off from playing and just came back this session for BCA. It took me a good portion of the session—probably the first two-thirds—before I really started feeling comfortable again.
During that time, I lost quite a few games to players I’m normally much stronger than, and it’s definitely dragged my rating down. I’m hoping next session I can get things back on track, but I’m curious how much movement I should realistically expect after hitting 200 robustness, right now im only at 80 so i'm not too worried.

Time is also important in addition to robustness.

I'm a 632 and have almost 3k games in the system, all within the last 3 years. Earlier this year, I had a three week span where I won 8-2 against a 640 (an 860 performance), 8-6 against a 680 (a 725 performance), and 7-3 against a 700 (an 820 performance). My rating rose by one point each time for a whopping three point improvement. So basically, even though I had a hot streak where I played at a pro level for a few weeks, my Fargo barely changed. For my rating to significantly change, I would need to consistently play at a MUCH higher level instead of just for a month long streak. My guess is even if SVB started playing under my name, it'd take at least half a year for my rating to clear 700.
 
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