Fargo rating mistake / possible shadiness?

sparkle84

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
That makes sense. I knew that "robustness" was a measurement of how many games you'd played, so, yeah, the lower the number the higher your ratings swings should be. I wish I new that number for the players that my friend suspects of being sandbaggers (which I don't). I don't.
Just find out their name and look em up.
 

maha

from way back when
Silver Member
if you are coming in the money all the time in a handicapped tournament then it means your rating is too low or most others is too high.
 

mikepage

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
That makes sense. I knew that "robustness" was a measurement of how many games you'd played, so, yeah, the lower the number the higher your ratings swings should be. I wish I new that number for the players that my friend suspects of being sandbaggers (which I don't). I don't.

The highest-rated player you faced (also I think the highest-rated player who frequents that tournament) has a rating in the low 690s and has about 2700 games in the system [a very strong regional player] . He has a bunch of those weekly tournaments, and he is performing about 685 speed for those (hence, my "nothing to see here" comment).
 

michael4

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
That seems backwards to me?

Shouldn't it be a 95% chance of being a 498 to 558 and a 2/3 (66%) chance of being a 468 to 588?
nope, you have a high % of being within a large spread, and a lessor chance of being within the tighten spread.
 

justadub

Rattling corners nightly
Silver Member
The place that holds the tournament actually held two or three tournaments a week (to replace the leagues that stopped due to Covid), and I always saw those "pros" there. A few months of two or three tournaments a week add up, but I don't know if it would add up enough to make a difference.

Anyways, it's good to know that my rating isn't as far off as I thought. Thanks for telling me.

Just so you know, Mike Page has been replying in this thread. He is the person to address these questions to. He created Fargo and maintains it. To say he's the authority on Fargo is an understatement. :p
 

JB Cases

www.jbcases.com
Silver Member
I won't be identifying the parties involved for reasons that will be obvious later.

I'm not a great player. I'm a 5-about-to-be-a-6 in APA. Where I lived until a few months ago, there wasn't any BCA in the city (at least as far as I was aware), so the APA it had to be. This didn't bother me as I just wanted to shoot pool. The point is, I didn't have a Fargo rating as I neither entered Fargo rated tournaments nor played in the BCA.

About a year ago it was mid-Covid, and tournaments/places-to-shoot were hard/impossible to find. (I should have done the right thing and avoided public places, but I'm straight-up addicted to pool and apparently narcissistic.) I heard about a place way out in the 'burbs that was running tournaments, so I went. The tournaments were handicapped based on your Fargo rating, and the results of the tournament effected your Fargo rating. Since I didn't have a Fargo rating, the guy running the tournament watched me play a few racks and marked me down as an average player (I don't know the exact rating, but I am an average player so it was ok).

I entered the tournament 4 or 5 times and placed almost every time. I forget if I ever won straight-up, but I did place. I did well because of my handicap, a nice set of bar boxes, and the fact that the patrons of the place were usually butt-ass wasted. Good combination!

In any case, these 4 or 5 times I played at this local, very small tournament (20 people max) are the only times that I've ever done anything that would effect my previously-nonexistent Fargo rating. As of now, my rating is 528 (robustness 77). I've been gently informed that this is way too high by people I trust to know these things. I also recall meeting some folks at the tournament who paid their rent playing pool -- and mostly by winning money in Fargo rated tournaments. I later confirmed that the two people whom I met that told me this were the real deal, not just talking smack.

A friend of mine has a theory that these tournaments are a clearinghouse for a set of pros who want to sandbag their Fargo score. Of course, this friend of mine also shares memes about the "The Storm", so ya gotta listen to him while sprinkling salt over your head. Nonetheless, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that they're not out to get you... could he be right?

Frankly, I doubt that I ran into some nefarious scheme. They guy who ran the tournament seemed pretty straight-up. But then again, what do I know? But I'm still stuck with this: I move to a new city, and a lot of the tournaments here are Fargo rated, a rating that does not reflect my actual skill level. It'll be embarrassing when I get schooled.

You can see the con, right? Run a small tourney way out in the middle of nowhere, and have it Fargo sanctioned (or whatever you call it when the results of the tournament effect your Fargo score and your Fargo score effects your handicap in the tournament). The pros who want to lower their score simply enter the tournament and lose to suckers like me, who feel like a million bucks because they're now $109 dollars richer and can tell their buddies on their local APA team that they "placed in a tournament last week -- yeah, it's no big deal, but I beat a pro you-know...".

Here's my real question:

Would that be a valid way to sandbag?

(Edit: by "valid" I mean "it could be done", not whether it's legal/moral.)
You don't actually have an established rating yet. You have a preliminary rating based on a limited amount of data. preliminary ratings can be assigned based on known/assumed ability but once you reach 200 games in the system it will adjust to whatever the data shows.

Yes, sandbagging is attempted in every system that rates players. Yes better players can lose to weaker players in an attempt to lower their fargo ratings which may at the same time raise yours. However with more data it becomes very difficult to do this as inevitably good players have to play up to their speed or continue donating. ALSO, the system has some way to check for anomalies that indicate someone is attempting to sandbag. Furthermore it's not just about winning and losing but instead what the difference in games won/lost between two players is. So in order to affect a rating the sandbagging player has to perform BELOW expectation. In other words a player can WIN a match and still see their rating go down if they allow the opponent to win more games than the opponent "should" win given the disparate ratings.

For example If I am 600 and you are a 500 and we play a race to ten then the prediction/expectation is that I will win twice as many games as you do. So if the final score is 10-5 for me then both of us have performed up to expectation and there is likely no ratings change. If neither of use have an established rating and no other match history then all fargo CAN know about us is that I have performed at a level that is 100 points higher than you. But it will not know if you are a 300 and I am a 400 or if you are a 700 and I am an 800.

Only after we have more games against more people and are connected to many others does the "magic" work. It is highly doubtful that there are many premeditated and organized tournaments that are set up solely for sandbagging. Primarily because the player and TDs involved risk losing all the data and being barred from the fago ratings system. We know of one instance where it is possible that the tournament direction did allow some players to have lopsided losing records and when this was found ALL of the data for all of those tournaments was scrubbed from the database and the venue's tournament results were no longer accepted into the database.

There is a player I know who demanded that he be removed from the ratings. After a while when he found that he was unable to participate in tournaments that required an established rating he asked to be reinstated.
 

pw98

Registered
I won't be identifying the parties involved for reasons that will be obvious later.

I'm not a great player. I'm a 5-about-to-be-a-6 in APA. Where I lived until a few months ago, there wasn't any BCA in the city (at least as far as I was aware), so the APA it had to be. This didn't bother me as I just wanted to shoot pool. The point is, I didn't have a Fargo rating as I neither entered Fargo rated tournaments nor played in the BCA.

About a year ago it was mid-Covid, and tournaments/places-to-shoot were hard/impossible to find. (I should have done the right thing and avoided public places, but I'm straight-up addicted to pool and apparently narcissistic.) I heard about a place way out in the 'burbs that was running tournaments, so I went. The tournaments were handicapped based on your Fargo rating, and the results of the tournament effected your Fargo rating. Since I didn't have a Fargo rating, the guy running the tournament watched me play a few racks and marked me down as an average player (I don't know the exact rating, but I am an average player so it was ok).

I entered the tournament 4 or 5 times and placed almost every time. I forget if I ever won straight-up, but I did place. I did well because of my handicap, a nice set of bar boxes, and the fact that the patrons of the place were usually butt-ass wasted. Good combination!

In any case, these 4 or 5 times I played at this local, very small tournament (20 people max) are the only times that I've ever done anything that would effect my previously-nonexistent Fargo rating. As of now, my rating is 528 (robustness 77). I've been gently informed that this is way too high by people I trust to know these things. I also recall meeting some folks at the tournament who paid their rent playing pool -- and mostly by winning money in Fargo rated tournaments. I later confirmed that the two people whom I met that told me this were the real deal, not just talking smack.

A friend of mine has a theory that these tournaments are a clearinghouse for a set of pros who want to sandbag their Fargo score. Of course, this friend of mine also shares memes about the "The Storm", so ya gotta listen to him while sprinkling salt over your head. Nonetheless, just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that they're not out to get you... could he be right?

Frankly, I doubt that I ran into some nefarious scheme. They guy who ran the tournament seemed pretty straight-up. But then again, what do I know? But I'm still stuck with this: I move to a new city, and a lot of the tournaments here are Fargo rated, a rating that does not reflect my actual skill level. It'll be embarrassing when I get schooled.

You can see the con, right? Run a small tourney way out in the middle of nowhere, and have it Fargo sanctioned (or whatever you call it when the results of the tournament effect your Fargo score and your Fargo score effects your handicap in the tournament). The pros who want to lower their score simply enter the tournament and lose to suckers like me, who feel like a million bucks because they're now $109 dollars richer and can tell their buddies on their local APA team that they "placed in a tournament last week -- yeah, it's no big deal, but I beat a pro you-know...".

Here's my real question:

Would that be a valid way to sandbag?

(Edit: by "valid" I mean "it could be done", not whether it's legal/moral.)
I think they wouldn't even need to lose to you, they just need to barely win the set and their fargo wont go up much. I don't think they would even need to do what you are saying though because of the salotto app where they could just throw sets and not lose out on the payday at all.
 

Patrick53212

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I used to think my rating of 560-570 was too low (569 currently). Well, I can assure you that it is right in line. On occasion, I outrun my rating. However, in a grind situation, I end up right where I should be in relation to my Fargo. I have almost 400 games (381). I play in open tournaments and tournaments that have a cap of 715 on the players in terms of skill level allowed to enter. On occasion, I beat a giant. But typically, the outcome is right in line with what Fargo predicts. When I play the ghost, I have yet to win. The best I have done is get halfway there. Again, in line with my Fargo rating. If you were to watch the games against the better players, you would think that I had a chance and that it was just bad rolls...well, if you are consistently getting bad rolls it is because you are playing bad! I would see this in playing the ghost. It is small mistakes that add up over the long run. Yes, I can put together 2-4 break and runs if I get ball in hand. I can even do that on occasion without taking ball in hand after the break but it is rare. I am definitely improving but it will take awhile to see it show up in any meaningful way in my tournament play. I was only winning 1 or 2 games in a race to 7 against the ghost and now I am winning 3-4 games in the race to 7. Playing 8-ball, I do a bit better but I don't practice 8ball much. Shot selection and safety play are huge but execution and consistency of the execution still play the biggest part. I am looking forward to the tournament this weekend as it is one of the tournaments with a 715 cap. I thought about driving to Tulsa for an 8ball tournament with a 600 cap but opted to stay closer to home.
 

MattPoland

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
I think they wouldn't even need to lose to you, they just need to barely win the set and their fargo wont go up much. I don't think they would even need to do what you are saying though because of the salotto app where they could just throw sets and not lose out on the payday at all.

Salotto submissions are publicly viewable. So they’d be risking some scrutiny and repercussions.
 
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