Fargo theoretical rating with two players

hang-the-9

hang-the-9

AzB Silver Member
Silver Member
@mikepage
Something I thought of on a Reddit question about Fargo.

If there are only 2 players in a bubble, we assign them a 350 rating to start with. After 200 games Player 1 shows to be winning games at a 2-1 ratio, a 100 point difference. Would Player 1 end up a 450 and Player 2 stays a 350, would player 2 go down to a 250 with 1 staying at 350 or would one go to 300 and the other to 400? This is without anyone else looking at them to see how they play to a known 3rd player. How would the math math?
 
Open play was how things were done before Fargo.

Fargo is not a perfect system.

I don’t think any Handicapping System is perfect.

But until Fargo goes away people are stuck with Fargo.

Back when we had the ARIZONA RATING. SYSTEM, people had same complaints.

System was unfair.
 
hang-the-9 said:
@mikepage
Something I thought of on a Reddit question about Fargo.

If there are only 2 players in a bubble, we assign them a 350 rating to start with. After 200 games Player 1 shows to be winning games at a 2-1 ratio, a 100 point difference. Would Player 1 end up a 450 and Player 2 stays a 350, would player 2 go down to a 250 with 1 staying at 350 or would one go to 300 and the other to 400? This is without anyone else looking at them to see how they play to a known 3rd player. How would the math math?
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I would assume 400 and 300 in a vacuum because if all you have is a starter rating it has to end up with whatever would make that starter rating most accurate?
 
highkarate said:
I would assume 400 and 300 in a vacuum because if all you have is a starter rating it has to end up with whatever would make that starter rating most accurate?
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I think so also, but I would love to see Mike plug in the two players in and see how the ratings progress. Set 1 , 10-5, what is the Fargo after that? Set 2, 10-5, what is the Fargo after that, and so on untill we reach the 200-100 game result

I am also wondering if we plug in a single set of 200 games, with a 200-100 result, would the final rating be different than if we put in 20 sets of 10-5 results.

It's also a pretty valid question for a larger group since a result can be due to one player being too low of a rating or one player being too high of a rating, and just a score floating on its own without any other information can be interpreted either way. If I beat a player 10-2 when the expected result should be 10-5, is it because they are ranked too high, or I am ranked too low? Assuming this is a fairly normal result and not just a single match. If I am beating a player 10-2 all the time, how does it know the correct way to move the rating? Does it reach out to all the other players we played and the results before re-calculating our ratings? How many points of intermingling is there to cross-check against other players?
 
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hang-the-9 said:
@mikepage
Something I thought of on a Reddit question about Fargo.

If there are only 2 players in a bubble, we assign them a 350 rating to start with. After 200 games Player 1 shows to be winning games at a 2-1 ratio, a 100 point difference. Would Player 1 end up a 450 and Player 2 stays a 350, would player 2 go down to a 250 with 1 staying at 350 or would one go to 300 and the other to 400? This is without anyone else looking at them to see how they play to a known 3rd player. How would the math math?
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Identifiability - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

The model requires that the analyst provide some kind of baseline rating. That could be something like setting an average rating across all players, or arbitrarily picking a rating for one of the players and pegging all other ratings off of that.

If you pick player 1 as the reference, then the model will converge to 350 vs. 250. If you pick player 2 as the reference, then it will converge to 450 vs. 350. If you require an average rating of 350 across all players, then the model will converge to 400 vs. 300.

Sum constraints tend to be more robust (section 2.1): https://academic.oup.com/jrsssa/article/185/Supplement_2/S461/7069516?login=false
 
CocoboloCowboy said:
Fargo is not a perfect system.

I don’t think any Handicapping System is perfect.
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Fargo, itself, is a "measurement" system; where the two incoming ratings and the result of the match end up updating the two outgoing ratings.
The more people, the more matches, the greater the cross mixing of matches the greater confidence the measurements are "reasonable".

Ratings can be used to do several things like:: Handicap, Seed contestants, weigh bets, weigh payouts, ...

Do not confuse the two--just like you should never confuse price for cost !
 
hang-the-9 said:
@mikepage
Something I thought of on a Reddit question about Fargo.

If there are only 2 players in a bubble, we assign them a 350 rating to start with. ...
Click to expand...
If they never play against anyone in the system to connect them with the main set of players, they have no real rating. It may be that they are each somehow weakly and fictitiously connected to the average Fargo rating, but that would be a completely arbitrary reference. (Example: give them a 1-1 record against an average player but with a weight of one thousandth of a game.)

I think starter ratings are a local thing determined by the local TD/LO, and are not entered into the rating computations.
 
I think it would depend on the starter rating. Like Bob said they are usually set by the tournament director. If he set the two at 500 then they would be 550 and 450. Of course that wouldn't happen because being in a tournament they would naturally be playing other players.
 
Well how can you fairly handicap a person on their TRUE SKILL LEVEL sayin a 9 Ball Tournament, on a Valley Bar box. If their only experienced is playing of 4.5 x 9 Gold Crowns 8 ball. IMHO this would be like a guessing game at best.

IMHO All Handicap System are BULLS***, and the only true was to judge person Talent or lack of is OPEN PLAY. Forces people to put out effort or be a looser. If Fargo is so GREAT when don’t DCC, use it to provide an edge to lessor players?

Handicapping System were conceived by Pool Bar, Sports Bar & Room owners to identify their Recreation Player, who spend money, and keep better player from coming in and win TOURNAMENTS. Chasing the Money spending recreation player AWAY, who pay bills

Serious Player most do not pay the bills, they consume less alcohol, then the BANGERS DO. They are the people who are the upper 25% of Pool Skill or more.

AGAIN JMHO
 
CocoboloCowboy said:
[handicaps are evil] ... AGAIN JMHO
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In some situations, handicapping works well and is needed for a tournament to survive.

FargoRate rates players' abilities and it does that fairly accurately. It is not, by itself, a handicapping system. It is a rating system.

There is a lot of information about FargoRate on the website. Here is the FAQ: https://www.fargorate.com/#faq
 
Well how can you fairly handicap a person on their TRUE SKILL LEVEL sayin a 9 Ball Tournament, on a Valley Bar box. If their only experienced is playing of 4.5 x 9 Gold Crowns 8 ball. IMHO this would be like a guessing game at best.

IMHO All Handicap System are BULLS***, and the only true was to judge person Talent or lack of is OPEN PLAY. Forces people to put out effort or be a looser. If Fargo is so GREAT when don’t DCC, use it to provide an edge to lessor players?

Handicapping System were conceived by Pool Bar, Sports Bar & Room owners to identify their Recreation Player, who spend money, and keep better player from coming in and win TOURNAMENTS. Chasing the Money spending recreation player AWAY, who pay bills

Serious Player most do not pay the bills, they consume less alcohol, then the BANGERS DO. They are the people who are the upper 25% of Pool Skill or more.

AGAIN JMHO
Bob Jewett said:
In some situations, handicapping works well and is needed for a tournament to survive.

FargoRate rates players' abilities and it does that fairly accurately. It is not, by itself, a handicapping system. It is a rating system.

There is a lot of information about FargoRate on the website. Here is the FAQ: https://www.fargorate.com/#faq
Click to expand...


Rating is a Handicapping System, under old Arizona Rating the better you got.

Achieving higher Ratinging, the less Tournments you could play in.

A Nine Rating end opportunities. Nine was two step below Short Stop Speed.
 
CocoboloCowboy said:
Well how can you fairly handicap a person on their TRUE SKILL LEVEL sayin a 9 Ball Tournament, on a Valley Bar box. If their only experienced is playing of 4.5 x 9 Gold Crowns 8 ball. IMHO this would be like a guessing game at best.

IMHO All Handicap System are BULLS***, and the only true was to judge person Talent or lack of is OPEN PLAY. Forces people to put out effort or be a looser. If Fargo is so GREAT when don’t DCC, use it to provide an edge to lessor players?

Handicapping System were conceived by Pool Bar, Sports Bar & Room owners to identify their Recreation Player, who spend money, and keep better player from coming in and win TOURNAMENTS. Chasing the Money spending recreation player AWAY, who pay bills

Serious Player most do not pay the bills, they consume less alcohol, then the BANGERS DO. They are the people who are the upper 25% of Pool Skill or more.

AGAIN JMHO
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stay in your cave you fossil. you have no clue how any of this actually works.
 
Bob Jewett said:
If they never play against anyone in the system to connect them with the main set of players, they have no real rating. It may be that they are each somehow weakly and fictitiously connected to the average Fargo rating, but that would be a completely arbitrary reference. (Example: give them a 1-1 record against an average player but with a weight of one thousandth of a game.)

I think starter ratings are a local thing determined by the local TD/LO, and are not entered into the rating computations.
Click to expand...
Of course, no one has a 'real' rating ;) The arbitrary reference rating is set in an arbitrary fashion.
 
Bob Jewett said:
If they never play against anyone in the system to connect them with the main set of players, they have no real rating. It may be that they are each somehow weakly and fictitiously connected to the average Fargo rating, but that would be a completely arbitrary reference. (Example: give them a 1-1 record against an average player but with a weight of one thousandth of a game.)

I think starter ratings are a local thing determined by the local TD/LO, and are not entered into the rating computations.
Click to expand...
It may not be a real rating, but the calculations would still be done, I was wondering which way they would swing. If the system would assume one player was better or both were at the cause half and half.
 
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