Actually, this is a fun thread.
I have to find a 5th grader to ask about this.... they'd probably know right away. You are on the right track with surface tension. It can't be weight, if you went by just that than ships and barges would sink.
Hmmm, just looked it up
Things sink or float due to the effect of buoyancy. If an object is dense and displaces insufficient water to counter its own weight, it will sink and if it displaces sufficient water to counter its weight, it will float.
Someone said above that it is strictly the endmass. Those articles seemed to say the same thing. But like someone said above everyone has their own idea of how it works. It just doesn't make sense to me that is all there is to it. If I took a 1/2" piece of steel and a 1/2" equally rigid piece of, say Carbon Fiber, I just can't wrap my head around the idea that the CF produces less squirt just because its lighter. Doesn't make sense. Something has to give on the action to lighten up on the reaction. A softer ferrule makes sense.
I thought about it another way. What am I more like to miscue with, a soft or a hard tip? I am sure most people would agree a hard tip. Isn't that same the same as deflection? The cue bounces off to one side and the cueball off to the other. Would it make any kind of difference if the end of the cue was lighter?