Yes that was the turning point of the decaying orbit that led to the loss. If Niels would have just shot the 6 ball in leaving the cue ball almost anywhere around there it would have probably just flowed out.
Instead he wasted his extension to accomplish nothing. If he would have had his extension available on the 8 ball I believe it would have ended differently, even if the cue ball was exactly where it was. Instead of panicking he probably would have taken a deep breath and executed the shot.
JC
Good evaluation here! I'm in agreement with your thinking. It could have and should have been a lot easier. Niels stumbled mentally putting extra pressure on Nick and himself. Interesting how one small mistake can compound into a bigger one later. Kind of like when someone gets a bit out of line and each successive shot gets harder.