How I lost from here

[Andrew Manning]

I see control when you have a specific goal and execute it well. Losing control is when you have a goal but then f*ck it up.
For example when you try a 50% shot and then miss, that's losing control.
Planning a good safe and executing it, I could not label that "losing control".

We do have somewhat different definitions. Planning a good safe and executing it isn't "losing control", it is intentionally surrendering control with some degree of confidence you'll get it back. The degree of confidence depends on the strength of the safety, and also the strength of the opponent.

Would you be comfortable saying "I kept control of the table" if you made a series of 30% shots with lots of CB travel,
in full "salvage mode", and somehow managed to finish the rack?
I'd say you basically surrendered control when you made the decision to try a flyer.
Technically you kept yourself at the table, but I wouldn't say you "controlled" the table.

I would. I kept control of the table in that everything that happened was a result of my own stroke. Nothing that happened was a result of anything my opponent did. Control was mine and not his.

When a league match comes up the number of safeties I play easily triples.

Are you just referring to the APA here? Because the scoring system changes the math.

On the subject of those two categories, how many players
do you know who safe here instead of taking the easy duck?
Pretty much EVERYone shoots this ball even if they're less than 50% to make it.
But you can see the safety is dead easy and sells out at worst a full table bank
if you fail it, which is tough with all those blockers.

This is the kind of situation where IMO more people (even 6, 7, 8, 9s) should look at ducking.

I guess that is a good example, because I would say that if you're playing against a decent opponent, you should play offense there regardless of your own skill level. If you can't make that ball and give yourself a reasonable shot on the 4, then you can't reliably get safe either. Which is more likely in your opinion: playing safe and selling out, or shooting the 3 to make it and selling out?

-Andrew

 

[CreeDo]

Are you just referring to the APA here? Because the scoring system changes the math.

APA yes, My actual number of safeties (not even counting 2-ways) triples.
Well, I should count them before saying that. But conservatively, # of safeties at least doubles.
And that's been working very well for the win rate. Between that and the article mentioned earlier,
I'm fairly convinced that a lot of people, maybe most of them, are playing 9b too aggressively.

I guess that is a good example, because I would say that if you're playing against a decent opponent, you should play offense there regardless of your own skill level. If you can't make that ball and give yourself a reasonable shot on the 4, then you can't reliably get safe either. Which is more likely in your opinion: playing safe and selling out, or shooting the 3 to make it and selling out?

-Andrew

Well, I was trying to depict something 50%ish but I may have drawn it too easy.
Does that look like a 90% shot to you?

Actually I definitely drew it wrong because I wanted more angle,
where you could cut it with soft low left to spin under those balls.
So maybe imagine the cb is somewhere near the 9?

You have three blockers to hide behind, and with the right thickness of hit the OB
is stuck on the head rail, leaving nothing but a bank if you don't hide the CB.
I'd say if the shot is 50%, and if you play shape for the 4 (at least as drawn) you 100% sell out.
The safe is at least 80% I'd say, and probably leaves a full table bank if botched.

 

[8onthebreak]

Right move on OP's part, I'd do the same.

I say good pool is a patience game, but you gotta take the out when you see it.
If I see the out with 70% + certainty, I'm going for it, ...anything less, and I'll duck and wait.

I would do the same safe that the OP did EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK...and I would not be the slightest bit upset if he made it. It's a 1 in 15 shot, ...I knew the odds, I calculated the risk, and the reward was 10x greater than the risk. Nice shot. You did a great jump, with enough accuracy to get a hit, and you were rewarded with the game. Would never happen again, so enjoy that game, I'm not changing mine.

 

[CreeDo]

I would do the same safe that the OP did EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK...and I would not be the slightest bit upset if he made it. It's a 1 in 15 shot, ...I knew the odds, I calculated the risk, and the reward was 10x greater than the risk. Nice shot. You did a great jump, with enough accuracy to get a hit, and you were rewarded with the game. Would never happen again, so enjoy that game, I'm not changing mine.

If I understand it right, he jumped the 8, hit the center of the end rail, and kicked the 7 in the side.
As an added bonus the 7 had to clear the nipple to go in from that angle and the cue ball almost came off the table.

I'd give anyone on earth 15 tries at this one I'd say more like 1 in 50 if you set up both balls EXACTLY the same every time, and more like 1 in 100 if you just set up similar shots over and over.

I still don't get why he didn't go to the long rail and do a simple kick rather than a jump kick.

 

[Andrew Manning]

Actually I definitely drew it wrong because I wanted more angle,
where you could cut it with soft low left to spin under those balls.
So maybe imagine the cb is somewhere near the 9?

That does change the odds quite a bit. The more angle you have the tougher the shot gets and the easier the safe gets (and the lower the chance of selling out if you leave it in the open).

I think we've discussed this to death, what's left is to settle it on the table in some sort of intense but extremely low stakes 9-ball grudge match.

-Andrew

 

[Hector3cushion]

...
I wish I could label it that, but the truth is, even a decent B player is 50/50 to get out of an open 9 ball rack,
with zero clusters and ball in hand to start. And I think a lot of B players walk around not realizing that. I know I didn't. ...

...
So why would your primary gameplan to do something you will fail 90% of the time?
...

Agree on the low odds for running out. However, it would be difficult to improve our chances of running out if we were merely thinking of just winning every time. I often see strong APA 3/4s that win a lot of games but have a very small chance of improving their game with that strategy in mind. I would rather improve than win. and would rather increase my success percentage of EASIER shots than the occasional "great" shot

 

[CreeDo]

Agree on the low odds for running out. However, it would be difficult to improve our chances of running out if we were merely thinking of just winning every time. I often see strong APA 3/4s that win a lot of games but have a very small chance of improving their game with that strategy in mind. I would rather improve than win. and would rather increase my success percentage of EASIER shots than the occasional "great" shot

Yup, this is true. In fact I often preach to players that you should put winning in the backseat behind self improvement... play a shot left-handed instead of the bridge, put low left on that ball even though you're more comfortable with high right, and so on. I guess all of this is just for the sake of argument... I don't duck every time a so-so shot comes up, just in the occasional important match which is only like 1% of all the games I'll play.

That does change the odds quite a bit. The more angle you have the tougher the shot gets and the easier the safe gets (and the lower the chance of selling out if you leave it in the open).

I think we've discussed this to death, what's left is to settle it on the table in some sort of intense but extremely low stakes 9-ball grudge match.

-Andrew

Race to 100 racks for a dollar. I must safe every marginal shot and you must fire at it
I never see you anymore, I guess you're always at first break but lately I've been at eddies.
I never though they'd do it but they fixed up several tables so that they play properly
and went non-smoking. I can actually enjoy pool there. Three months ago I went there less
than any other pool hall except hard times manassas.

 

[Andrew Manning]

Race to 100 racks for a dollar. I must safe every marginal shot and you must fire at it
I never see you anymore, I guess you're always at first break but lately I've been at eddies.
I never though they'd do it but they fixed up several tables so that they play properly
and went non-smoking. I can actually enjoy pool there.

I'll believe it when I see it, which I suppose I'll try to do some time soon. You just there Thursday nights, or more often? I have been at First Break lately.

-Andrew

 

[CreeDo]

Thursday and Sunday mostly, but some other random days too.
Did breakers last night and qball earlier in the week. Just all over the place.

 

[EasyEJL]

maybe its just me but since nobody else has mentioned it...

Why in gods name would you take the jump shot with kick when a kick on the top rail just a little left of the center pocket looks near perfectly lined up to send the 7 into the bottom right corner?

 

[Jude Rosenstock]

"Great" shots are often the product of desperation.

This is such a great sentence. Everything that needs to be said about this shot was said by you.

 

[CreeDo]

maybe its just me but since nobody else has mentioned it...

Why in gods name would you take the jump shot with kick when a kick on the top rail just a little left of the center pocket looks near perfectly lined up to send the 7 into the bottom right corner?

haha it's not just you. I assumed he meant to diagram it so that the top rail was closed off without the jump.
But that still doesn't explain why you don't just do a simple 1 rail kick on the side rail. Or go off the top rail with sidespin.

Oh well, the stuff people do is baffling. In my first straight pool game for money, I was frozen to a ball that went nowhere but had a ball sitting near the side pocket, but angled a bit, so it was easier to kick it in by hitting the foot rail. I kick there but call one of the kitchen corners and make it.

My opponent (who bludgeoned me) kind of dryly said
"uh, I woulda just played it in the side but, you called it and it went."