How much would you bet, at what odds?

CaptainJR

CaptainJR

Shiver me timbers.
Silver Member
The title is a little misleading, I'm hoping this thread will be a little more interesting than making a bet on something.

I'm going to the PA State Open 8-ball championship soon, so I'll be talking 8-ball. I think this could apply to most any pool game, but in case you might feel a little differently from one game to the next. Let's stick to 8-ball. (at first anyway)

I'm being taught that when I come to the table and know the run out is not there, I should think about doing something other than getting all my balls out of the opponents way. Safety, block a pocket, something to improve my chances of winning the game. Good advice, the number of times I've tried to run out and couldn't get it done, then the opponent had an open table and I lose, is to high.

Now here is the issue. There is that gray area where you think you may be able to run out. Where do you draw the line. I started thinking about this while playing the ghost. I came to a spot where I had to make this decision. I ask myself, 'How much would you bet that you can run out from here?' This was a good question and I started to think that it might be a way to measure where to draw this line. Maybe better than game to game instinct anyway. (or not)

The amount would be different for different people, so for this thread let's say in the players financial position he would be little pissed it he reach in his pocket and realized he had lost a ten dollar bill.

So for ten dollars, if you thought you could run out you would certainly make an even bet. If you had some work to do, you might want odds. I thought that if I'd want 2 to 1 odds to get me to take the bet I might go another ball and evaluate again. If I'd need 3 to 1 odds, I'd immediately start looking for other options to improve my position.

What do you think?
 
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CaptainJR said:
I'm being taught that when I come to the table and know the run out is not there, I should think about doing something other than getting all my balls out of the opponents way. Safety, block a pocket, something to improve my chances of winning the game. Good advice, the number of times I've tried to run out and couldn't get it done, then the opponent had an open table and I lose, is to high.

Now here is the issue. There is that gray area where you think you may be able to run out. Where do you draw the line. I started thinking about this while playing the ghost. I came to a spot where I had to make this decision. I ask myself, 'How much would you bet that you can run out from here?' This was a good question and I started to think that it might be a way to measure where to draw this line. Maybe better than game to game instinct anyway. (or not)

The amount would be different for different people, so for this thread let's say in the players financial position he would be little pissed it he reach in his pocket and realized he had lost a ten dollar bill.

So for ten dollars, if you thought you could run out you would certainly make an even bet. If you had some work to do, you might want odds. I thought that if I'd want 2 to 1 odds to get me to take the bet I might go another ball and evaluate again. If I'd need 3 to 1 odds, I'd immediately start looking for other options to improve my position.

What do you think?
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You're on a good track here, Captain. I think going for any runout that was 40% or better would usually be a no-brainer, as surely the chance of winning the rack even if you failed to get out would usually exceed 10%.

My sense is comparable to yours in that it's at about 2 to 1 odds, or a 33% perceived success rate, that the decision becomes difficult. Here, though, I happen to think your approach is in error. When looking at a 33% layout, you must assess the quality of the available defense before pocketing even a single ball. I'm sure your experience corroborates the fact that pocketing one ball and then playing safe is generally far inferior to playing safe right away.

Make your decision on whether to play offense or defense before you hit a single ball and you'll be more successful.
 
sjm said:
You're on a good track here, Captain. I think going for any runout that was 40% or better would usually be a no-brainer, as surely the chance of winning the rack even if you failed to get out would usually exceed 10%.

My sense is comparable to yours in that it's at about 2 to 1 odds, or a 33% perceived success rate, that the decision becomes difficult. Here, though, I happen to think your approach is in error. When looking at a 33% layout, you must assess the quality of the available defense before pocketing even a single ball. I'm sure your experience corroborates the fact that pocketing one ball and then playing safe is generally far inferior to playing safe right away.

Make your decision on whether to play offense or defense before you hit a single ball and you'll be more successful.
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You had to make it more complicated didn't you! LOL Absolutely right, the quality and availability of a good safe or blocking play comes into the decision big time.

I'm afraid to think how many times I may have not put this into the equation. I know I've been taught this, but I don't believe I remember it all the time. Even if the run out is just a little questionable, if you have a real good defensive play, you might take it instead of trying the run out.

So much for this thread. LOL Well maybe me spending the time writing it will help me remember this aspect. Maybe even help someone else here.

Thanks sjm
 
Hey Captain! Good luck to you! I cut my teeth on 8 ball, great game. Lots of safety play involved. The only reason we don't see it on TV is the time constraints. I guess I can't blame them much as they need a fast paced game for their limited time.
sjm said:
good luck in your tournament
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Also consider the ability of your opponent. Is this a handicapped event such as APA? If it is an you are a 6 or 7 playing a 3 or 4 and they have at least one nasty cluster you are probably safe to run down as far as you can. If they are a 6 or 7 you might want to look at a strong safety before leaving them the table run. Also consider the experience of your opponent. I am a lowly APA 4, that has been around, and if you run down on me I'll safe you to death. Now you might say, if I can do that why am I still a 4, cause I can't shoot worth a hoot :D . Do enjoy trying tho.
 
I'm not an 8 ball expert by any means but someone was telling me the other day that if stripes are clustered and you don't have a run out on the solids but the solids look better, shoot a stripe close to a pocket so that your opponent will more than likely choose stripes and try to run out. By doing this, your opponent will clear much of the table and you will have a much better chance of running out when it is your turn. Pretty chicken@$#t but that's 8 ball and maybe that's why I don't like it even though I will readily hook my opponent in 9 ball. I don't know what the difference is and there probably isn't any but it just feels different to me.
 
I have played alot of tourney 8-ball on the bar boxes and can hold my own vs virtually anyone on those tables. There are way more factors to look at then the chance of getting out. On many tables that you "may" get out on there is often a plan b that you can use as a recourse after failure, aka try to make X breakout but if it does not happen then the cueball will be at Y where I can then play Z safety and leave the opponent with a crap table and no safety. Each game is so individual I can never say with numbers when I will go for the safe or the runout. If I have a 60% chance to run out but I can play a simple safety that makes the table 95% chance to get out and leave the opponent a %5 chance of even a hit then the safe is what I will play.

It also depends greatly on who you are playing. Are you playing some schmoe who cannot string 4 balls together? I will tend to play more safe and tie stuff up and let the player struggle and make thing easy for me by potting some balls. On the other hand if you are playing some top bar box player you have to be careful what you decide to play safe on, the top players can get out on some awful tough racks with short side shapes and amazing breakouts. They can also turn your safety around and leave you twice as screwed as you left them.

There are just way too many factors, the choices are not so simple as "hmm, I am 45% favorite to get out here, I am therefore going to try".
 
Rickw said:
I'm not an 8 ball expert by any means but someone was telling me the other day that if stripes are clustered and you don't have a run out on the solids but the solids look better, shoot a stripe close to a pocket so that your opponent will more than likely choose stripes and try to run out. By doing this, your opponent will clear much of the table and you will have a much better chance of running out when it is your turn. Pretty chicken@$#t but that's 8 ball and maybe that's why I don't like it even though I will readily hook my opponent in 9 ball. I don't know what the difference is and there probably isn't any but it just feels different to me.
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I don't understand, why is it "chickens@$#t" to LEGALLY rearrange the table to your advantage? Isn't that the essence of any game, to win by following the rules? Where does this judgment come from, guilt, or what? I'm really very curious about why players engage in this repeating phenomenom of degrading the following of specific rules, Rick----I do not mean it as a putdown. It reminds me of the complaints from some APA players about other players sandbagging--I've never understood the complaints against those players (vs. complaints about the rules), either.

The above technique to "force" another player to choose stripes (in this case) is one I've used and profited from for years. I highly recommend it, especially when using the 8-ball break I've spoken of recently. It is a legal shot and the incoming player can chose to NOT fall for it. This is the first, and hopefully the last, time I've seen it in print (shhhhh).

Jeff Livingston
 
Celtic, I have wonded the same thing myself. You will hear someone in a bar refer to someone as playing (objectional term) pool if they play safe in 8 ball. The same guy will hook you every chance he gets in 9 ball. Duh, someone please explain.

:confused: Pel
 
Jeff,

I really don't know where it comes from. It's probably due to the fact that I haven't played that much 8 ball. I'm playing in a bar league now and am playing more and more 8 ball so maybe I'll get over this attitude. I have played for years and have mostly played 9 ball, 1h and 3 cushion but very seldom have I played 8 ball. I'll get over it in time and hopefully will learn to appreciate the subtle logistics of this game.


chefjeff said:
I don't understand, why is it "chickens@$#t" to LEGALLY rearrange the table to your advantage? Isn't that the essence of any game, to win by following the rules? Where does this judgment come from, guilt, or what? I'm really very curious about why players engage in this repeating phenomenom of degrading the following of specific rules, Rick----I do not mean it as a putdown.
Jeff Livingston
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All this has been good advice. Thank you!

The tournament that I mentioned (PA State Open 8-ball Championship) is a non-handicap event. BCA rules. Of the 200 plus players that it will draw there may be a couple (2 or 3) players that don't play well. $95 entry fee and draws from the surrounding States as well. No chumps, (except me probably).

It is usually rather difficult to play a safe when the opponent has seven balls laying around to shoot at. Any one of these players can make (or luck in) a kick shot and run out. So it makes this decision rather important.

Once you get to the finals of this event (down to 8 or 10 players) there are very few safeties. These guys get out from anywhere. Good event.

The past three years I've been one out of the money. In 2001 Don Polo beat me and won the tournament. In 2003 Phil Sherman beat me and won the tournament. Maybe this year I'll get a little easier bracket. (I've never seen an easy bracket in this tourney) LOL.

Thanks again to all
 
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