How Would You Play This? 12/9/09

[cubswin]

how many ball in hands are you looking for? I say, ball in hand is the best shape I'm able to play... I just need a good shot up the rail over a ball to run out! why risk them kicking safe, missing the safety or bad breakout.

I'll try and get ball until I get the out I want. It bites me sometimes, and I can over do it. I just don't love the layout, so if I can change it a bit, and get ball in hand again then I would. I'm just a low b player, but there aren't any world beaters around so like my odds of getting the win by playing safe.

Can't argue that running out here is probably the better play, I'm just looking at it and saying what I'd do.


And to Jude thanks for posting these. Great learning tool.

 

[Nick B]

Celtic,
I just don't like this. If you fail to pocket his ball and it hangs around the pocket your opponent may take a flyer and make the ball come crashing into the stack. Now he maybe out or force you into stalemate.

Honestly I am probably moving from here. I would likely line up the 13-3 combo to the upper corner and shoot it drawing back abit behind the 12 and 15.

CueTable Help

From there my opponent is in trouble, they have a soft 2 rail kick trying to just touch the 7 and hook me frozen on the 8, or they can try and tie some of my stuff up, but from here I am in control of the table and can torture them for abit with a slow kill.

Even if I am shooting well and a strong favorite to win on the runout I dont like shooting the second shot short side jacked up over the 8-ball after breaking the 2 off of it. I might be a 85% favorite to run out but I am a better bet to win on the safety battle and it has the added advantage of also getting to my opponent depending on their mindset.

 

[Celtic]

If you were playing me, and did that, you would be in trouble.

I would shoot your 15 down onto the 7, and it is very possible that I could also get the 12 there on the same shot. In doing that, I could possibly bump the 2 with the 15, moving it just an inch or so, but making it playable. Now, YOU are the one in trouble.

You are giving me ball in hand again and think I am in trouble?

The shot I was actually fishing for was for my opponent to roll the 15 onto the 7 giving me another ball in hand, show me via WEI what you think you are going to leave me from where I left you and I can show you the next shot you will be looking at.

 

[Celtic]

Celtic,
I just don't like this. If you fail to pocket his ball and it hangs around the pocket your opponent may take a flyer and make the ball come crashing into the stack.

It is on a box and I have ball in hand, making the 3 is fairly easy, even on a pro cut diamond. If it were on a 9-foot I would not shoot it but on a bar box the chances of me missing that combo are slim. AND at the end of the day if by some miracle I did miss with the 2 remaining solids sitting as they are the guy would have to hit a pretty phenomenal controlled breakout to get out, the solids are sitting such that the breakout on the solids will end up like crap for most players. It is hard to even see a good breakout hit, shooting off the rail on a jawed 3 tring to what? Hit the 8 and hope the cuball follows through to the rail and leaves the 2 short side or the 7? If you even try that and dont hit the 8 full the breakout is going to go badly, the opponent *****es about his "luck", and I still have control.

 

[Neil]

Celtic: I set up the shot on my bar box, and this is the result. Go from there.

CueTable Help

Now, wouldn't you rather know that you just ran out, rather than be facing this mess on your next turn??

 

[Celtic]

Now, wouldn't you rather know that you just ran out, rather than be facing this mess on your next turn??

Heck no man, I am a long time lover of 1-pocket, this is where I actually start to enjoy the game.

You ended up decent, so my next shot with ball in hand is to take the cueball a little back up the rail for a natural angle to shoot the 12 about 1/3rd of the ball into the 2, which will throw abit and end up on the rail near the 13, the cueball coming through and nudging the 15 lightly and full which pushes the 7 onto and off the rail abit (the 15 MAY also nudge the 8 a half inch or so which is nice but it does not really have to).

CueTable Help

Now you are looking at this.

CueTable Help

And from where you left me this is an extremely simple shot to control to get this result. I am not sure what you want to do from there but as much as I love to get into chess matches I would not like where you stand now in this game. The only shot you have here to try to save yourself is to nudge the 15 again onto the 7 off angle. But I have 2 different things I can do from there already planned, and those are based on you shooting the best shot you have and actually tying up the 15 off angle on the 7 so I cannot combo the 7 in and get rid of it while freezing you to the 8.

 

[Russ Chewning]

CueTable Help

And from there.. you have 2 balls pretty well tied up on mine, and I will attempt to make any of your other balls you allow me to hit.

If I can't, I will attempt to bank whatever stripe you leave me nearest to a spot where it is tied up against one of your balls.

I understand you consider yourself a B player, but anything other than attempting running out allows a knowledgeable player at least a 25% chance of winning against you, which is unacceptable.


No offense, but playing against really weak players regularly might be affecting your judgment here. I came up around REALLY good barbox player sin the NW region, and none of them would play safe here.

You had one cluster to break out... Now you have two. If you let me back to the table again..I MIGHT find a way to tie up one or two more balls. And in that case..your chance of winning is certainly not going up.

A 15 % chance of not getting out is an acceptable risk.

Voluntarily letting your opponent back to the table is absolutely unacceptable.

Russ

 

[Neil]

O.K., I still had my table set up from that shot, so I went down to see if your shot was possible, and to set it up from your diagram. I immediatley saw it wasn't possible, but that is my fault, not yours. I apparently didn't post it very carefully from the actual result. So, here is the actual result from my initial return. No balls are frozen to each other, just small gaps between. Sorry about that. It makes a difference in your return.

However, from your diagram, I would thin the 8 and put it between the pocket and the 13. If that wasn't possible, I would put it just past the 13 to where you could not make the 13 with BIH.

Here's my new diagram, again, sorry for the screw-up.

CueTable Help

 

[Russ Chewning]

However, from your diagram, I would thin the 8 and put it between the pocket and the 13. If that wasn't possible, I would put it just past the 13 to where you could not make the 13 with BIH.

Great minds think alike lol...

I still think if, with two balls tied up, he gives a chance to pocket his balls, he might find the tide turning rather quickly on him.. Maybe not enough to lose, but certainly enough to have a CHANCE at losing.

Russ

 

[Russ Chewning]

Here's my new diagram, again, sorry for the screw-up.

CueTable Help

BTW.. I liked your other result better.. He shoots a firm stop shot on the 15, freezing on the 8, banking the 15 and 7 out two rails, and you are in an absolute hurt locker..



Russ

C player

 

[Celtic]

Here's my new diagram, again, sorry for the screw-up.

No worries on the screw up, with the new leave my shot changes though. Gonna shoot this lining my 15 up so I can hit the 15 full and freeze the cueball to the 8, the 15 going into the 7 and moving it to the end rail while the 15 itself squirts out

CueTable Help

leaving this

CueTable Help

If the 15 looks like it will nudge the 8 after hitting the 7 (i cannot tell on WEI how close it is) I might instead elect to do this.

CueTable Help

Leaving this.

CueTable Help

 

[Neil]

Boy, as mentioned many times before on here, big difference from the wei table to the real table. Very difficult to set up the wei exactly as the real table.

With that said, Russ: that would be the apparent choice to do. However, when I went back down to shoot your shot, I found that the cb was slightly hooked from a straight on shot on the 15. (Iknow, my fault again.:embarrassed2 However, I did move the cb over slightly for your shot. I then saw that I actually could not hit the 15 real square because of the 8. I thought I still had a chance of freezing to the 8, so I gave it my best effort and this is the result.

To be perfectly honest, I'm not really sure just what did happen, as I was focusing on trying to stop the cb dead. Which I couldn't do. There was a lot of clicks going on from all the combos involved. I could not freeze the cb, and it ended up on the rail. I now have a very makeable shot on the 2 to the corner, which really surprised me, and to be perfectly honest, I am not sure why I do!

But, again, that goes to show that strange things can and do happen. I can now shoot the 2 in the corner with a jump shot, jumping over the 12 to get down table and hopefully have some kind of a shot on the 7. If I do, I am out, and the stripes lost. Very possible to happen. Not a sure thing, but very possible. That is why stripes should have run out when they had the chance.

CueTable Help

 

[Celtic]

CueTable Help

And from there.. you have 2 balls pretty well tied up on mine, and I will attempt to make any of your other balls you allow me to hit.

If I can't, I will attempt to bank whatever stripe you leave me nearest to a spot where it is tied up against one of your balls.

I understand you consider yourself a B player, but anything other than attempting running out allows a knowledgeable player at least a 25% chance of winning against you, which is unacceptable.


No offense, but playing against really weak players regularly might be affecting your judgment here. I came up around REALLY good barbox player sin the NW region, and none of them would play safe here.

You had one cluster to break out... Now you have two. If you let me back to the table again..I MIGHT find a way to tie up one or two more balls. And in that case..your chance of winning is certainly not going up.

A 15 % chance of not getting out is an acceptable risk.

Voluntarily letting your opponent back to the table is absolutely unacceptable.

Russ

You left this and I have ball in hand.

CueTable Help

Now the key question, does the 2 go on a box or do you get an angle that makes it not go.

If it goes I shoot this.

CueTable Help

From there you can pot any single one of my balls.

If the 13-2 combo does not go then I shoot this.

CueTable Help

leaving this.

CueTable Help

Your shot.

 

[supergreenman]

Honestly I am probably moving from here. I would likely line up the 13-3 combo to the upper corner and shoot it drawing back abit behind the 12 and 15.

CueTable Help

From there my opponent is in trouble, they have a soft 2 rail kick trying to just touch the 7 and hook me frozen on the 8, or they can try and tie some of my stuff up, but from here I am in control of the table and can torture them for abit with a slow kill.

Even if I am shooting well and a strong favorite to win on the runout I dont like shooting the second shot short side jacked up over the 8-ball after breaking the 2 off of it. I might be a 85% favorite to run out but I am a better bet to win on the safety battle and it has the added advantage of also getting to my opponent depending on their mindset.

I really can't understand why you play safe from here with a ball in hand. This is a bar table!! This run out is elementary, you shouldn't even have to jack up that much on the 12 to get started.

 

[Celtic]

Not a sure thing, but very possible. That is why stripes should have run out when they had the chance.

Not exactly, you smoked the 15-7 to get the 7 up table like that, not a shot I would even consider. I was trying to move the 7 ball to the rail on purpose to get the hook that likely causes a tough kick or a person taking another purposful foul that might give me the ability to play the combo and get the 7 off the table.

Basically you missed a safety shot that was easier then shooting the short side punch shot in the side with angle to move the 2 off the 8 and then cutting the short side 15 up in the corner while bridged over the 8-ball from the original runout. I mean, if a guy cannot play the safe well from there he is probably not a huge favorite on the runout either and was in trouble the moment he put his quarters into the table.

 

[Neil]

Not exactly, you smoked the 15-7 to get the 7 up table like that, not a shot I would even consider. I was trying to move the 7 ball to the rail on purpose to get the hook that likely causes a tough kick or a person taking another purposful foul that might give me the ability to play the combo and get the 7 off the table.

Basically you missed a safety shot that was easier then shooting the short side punch shot in the side with angle to move the 2 off the 8 and then cutting the short side 15 up in the corner while bridged over the 8-ball from the original runout. I mean, if a guy cannot play the safe well from there he is probably not a huge favorite on the runout either and was in trouble the moment he put his quarters into the table.

No, remember, Russ said he would hit the shot firmly, so that is what I tried to do. Basically, the shot showed that strange things do happen at times. I was genuinely surprised that I ended up with a shot on the 2. Not even sure why I did get a shot on it.?? That doesn't make me a bad player at all. In actuallity, I'm not. But, it does emphasize the fact that the stripes should have been run out when given the chance to.

Is there a possibility that you play on leagues a lot and tend to run up your innings?? I'm not saying that in a derogatory way at all, just asking because I see no reason whatsoever to play a safe when you can run them out.

 

[Celtic]

I really can't understand why you play safe from here with a ball in hand. This is a bar table!! This run out is elementary, you shouldn't even have to jack up that much on the 12 to get started.

It is mostly because I don't really like this shot.

CueTable Help

You are jacked up over the 8, punching down on the cueball enough to hold for the 13 in the side is almost impossible, especially with the angle one would want to get on the 9 and 14. So you are bridging over the full 8 on a cueball almost frozen to it stroking a table length 15 into the corner, and having to put enough tops on the cueball to make it follow through after hitting the 15 and come up table and off the rail enough to leave a decent shot on the 14.

If you get that far you are looking ok, you can cut the 14 in and nudge the 9 and only have to get the angle on the 9 to get short side on the 13 since that 2 you moved now blocks the corner and it does not pass the 3 into the other.

I mean, I guess we could be playing on the loosest valley in the world, it gets alot easier depending on the equipment.

But then I also see a diamond 7-foot as a "bar box", just a nice one that requires a far higher level of potting accuracy.

There are not 10% of the players in the BCA event that would have better then a 50% chance of getting out from there, and that 10% includes the pro's and masters who eat up a whole lot of that 10% leaving a small number of guys left in the open to fill in the rest, many who have a name like Fabrico Gustave and they happen to speak Spanish very well, not a lick of English and happen to be one of the 5 best amatuer ranked players in Spain.

In the VNEA I would say under the pressure late in the tournament (final 32 in the open) you would see about a 60% runout rate once players at that point leave themselves that shot bridged over that ball needing those remaining balls. Glen Atwell should shoot from there, Stan Touragenau would shoot from there with a high rate of success, I would be near breaking my cue apart at hill hill match against Kirkwood if I left him that. Those guys are a little special though.

 

[Celtic]

But, it does emphasize the fact that the stripes should have been run out when given the chance to.

That is kind of what I am arguing against though, shooting a questionable shot that turns out bad does not mean you should have run the balls out any more then me going down to my table setting the balls up and shooting the out and jawing the 15 means the correct action is to paly safe. You CAN win from either position and the shot that any individual SHOULD play is the shot that gives them the highest percentage chance to win the game. And that correct shot is going to depend on the player and what their strengths are AND it is going to also depend to a degree on the opponent. For alot of players out there the safe is not the correct shot because they would not know what to do next anyhow or don't have the patience to suddenly play how ever many innings you need to play in order to win.

That is why I often play the safeties I do, because I find alot of players don't know the correct shots to play back and the game changes from a offensive break and run fest to a game of strategy where I hold more of an advantage. I might play the safe against one guy and against someone else I might actually go for the out, I am not sure I would bother with the safe against someone of open speed who knew how to move because the percentage chance of my winning on the safety depends not only on my skills and knowledge, but theirs as well.

Against most of the players I played this year in Vegas the safety would be the best shot. Most players cannot move, most players get the mindset that they must kick and hit their ball, or they don't know how to properly tie up balls, even some of the very good runout players who get deep in the events. If you find that out about an opponent and then don't exploit it we play very differently.

Is there a possibility that you play on leagues a lot and tend to run up your innings?? I'm not saying that in a derogatory way at all, just asking because I see no reason whatsoever to play a safe when you can run them out.

I play league, but it is BCA and VNEA, here in Canada we don't have the APA and I am not interested in the slightest to play a handicapped league and the number of innings you play should mean nothing in the slightest, pool is about the W, or in the case of the VNEA at worst the point differential you can get on your opponent.

Which bring up another point, in the VNEA the out makes more sense because you have a chance at a 10-4 win and each ball you make reduces the point differential your opponent could get off of you. There are so many different factors that could come into play on the choices of this table layout, we could spend all night.

 

[Neil]

Celtic: I am only rated an A player around my parts. I have a valley barbox with 4 1/8" pockets. I set the shot up and tried it 10 times. Even though I am very tired right now, (going to bed after this post), I made it 9 out of 10 times. I hung up try #6. The shot is very makeable, and a B player should make it at least 7 out of 10. Oh, I had shape on the 13 each time.

Since you are afraid of that shot, I suggest you set it up and shoot it 10 times. You don't need to hit it hard. And you only follow through as much as the back stroke is. Keep a very loose grip on the cue butt. I think you will be very surprised on how often you actually make it.

 

[SpinDoctor]

Don't play 8 ball, nor play on a barbox, I'll still give it a try.

Give myself a little angle to bump the 2 ball enough to clear the 8 and play the 12 in the opposite side pocket. Then play the 15 up the far corner leaving myself position for the 13 in the same side as I made the 12, follow slowly to play the 14 & 9 both in the same corner & come over for the 8 in the cleared corner pocket.

Jim

I play this as well.