Ignore Bait: Highest IQ, Many Questions, Odds makers invited...

[KissedOut]

That stems from the emotional side of things, which explains why some of the people here won't let the erroneous thinking go. They don't want to be wrong in their initial pick, so it's emotionally difficult to let it go.

Jaden

The essential logical error being made by the unbelievers is assuming that if there are 2 choices it is 50-50. That would be true IF the 2 choices had the same likelihood, but they don't.

I've been watching Daniel Negreanu's WSOP vlogs and they contain a perfect example of this. As he drives to the casino he always encounters a particular traffic signal and it is almost always red. He enquires further and learns that the light has a red cycle of 120 seconds and a green cycle of 12 seconds. Which means it is ten times as likely that it will be red than green. Which accords with his experience. But according to some of the illogic we've seen, some would argue that there are 2 possibilities, red and green, and therefore it is 50-50.

Back to the doors -- once you've picked your door there is a 1/3 chance you are a winner and a 2/3 chance the winner is in one of the other 2 doors. We know that either way there is a loser door among the 2 unpicked doors, and Monty knows which (or both) of the 2 doors is a loser. So when he shows a loser door he is not adding any information. There is still a 2/3rds chance that the winner is among the unpicked 2 doors. And with the exposure of that loser door that 2/3rds chance is now distilled down to the other unpicked door. NOTHING has occurred which would change the 1/3 chance that your original pick was the winner. So while there are now 2 choices, one of the choices (your original choice) has a 1/3 chance of being the winner and the other choice has a 2/3 chance of being the winner. So by switching you double your chance of winning. Just because there are 2 choices doesn't make it a 50-50 bet because the odds of each choice being a winner are not the same.

 

[ChrisinNC]

One can only be so dumb. I do think the Savant solution is bogus though.

Yes, it’s really quite hard to believe that over 1000 PhD’s and one of the most decorated mathematicians in history were stumped on this one. That should make you feel a little better!

 

[Dan White]

Something kind of ironic... People often cite that the player has a statistical advantage over the casino in blackjack, which is true, if played right;

If there really were a way to beat the house by "playing right" the casinos would correct the error in no time.

If you play "basic strategy," which gives the player the best odds possible, you still lose to the house by 1.5% plus or minus depending on the house rules. The only way to gain an advantage is by card counting, which has been made impossible by automatic shufflers. You can count with 6 or 8 deck shoes but the benefit is severely diluted, not to mention they reshuffle the shoe just when your advantage might start to kick in.

Online casino advantages? fuhgeggaboudit.

 

[Fatboy]

It’s all the same.

If you decide to play someone, and you’re not getting odds on your money (almost unheard of in pool) then any edge is a good bet.

As long as you win 51% of the time, it’s a good bet. If not, it’s a bad bet.

No different than any other thing in life.


Driving a car to work everyday. If the odds are high enough of being injured or killed and the pay you receive at the job you’re driving to doesn’t justify it, you shouldn’t be driving.

Life insurance is a literal line on your life just like a bookie sets a line on a game. You are paying them and giving them odds on their cash. They are expecting to make more off people than they pay out based on how long they expect you to live.

Your employer is betting they will make more revenue than they have to pay you and materials.


Literally everything in life is numbers and odds.

People just pay attention a little more when there’s direct cash or prizes being exchanged,

I’ve always said that.

I’m not a genius, I’m just right 51% Of the time. I’m wrong 49% of the time. What you see is the 2% spread.

The trick to getting and staying rich?

Make that 2% as big of a number as possible.

The best way to do that is stay in big action as often as possible and just be right 51%. Can’t be that hard.

Best
Fatboy <———-51%er

 

[Jaden]

If there really were a way to beat the house by "playing right" the casinos would correct the error in no time.

If you play "basic strategy," which gives the player the best odds possible, you still lose to the house by 1.5% plus or minus depending on the house rules. The only way to gain an advantage is by card counting, which has been made impossible by automatic shufflers. You can count with 6 or 8 deck shoes but the benefit is severely diluted, not to mention they reshuffle the shoe just when your advantage might start to kick in.

Online casino advantages? fuhgeggaboudit.

MMM yeah... no. First off, for counting cards, you WANT to have a higher deck shoe. The automatic shufflers have been instituted earlier into the shoe which is what eliminates the advantage of higher + counts because you have less time once you establish a higher + count to take advantage of the count.

Secondly, the house has ~.5% disadvantage over the player in the long run. It's (being the house's) advantage is that they have unlimited resources and no greed. Maybe I didn't quite explain it. Anyways, there are plenty of disciplined professional black jack players that make a great living at it, but almost to a man, they use a tiered approach like I described to overcome the greed factor. Also, over many sessions, they overcome the limited resources factor because of the tiered structure.

That's a casino's BIGGEST advantage, unlimited resources related to the player. Player's run out of money and they have a tendency to either quit down, or busted rather than ahead. That's the casino's advantage in blackjack, not the actual play.

Jaden

 

[Fatboy]

Something kind of ironic... People often cite that the player has a statistical advantage over the casino in blackjack, which is true, if played right; however, the problem lies in greed and finite resources.

People can play perfectly and lose all they have, or they can win big, but rarely do people stop playing when up big, they stop playing when they lose big, or all that they have.

I once had a friend that wanted to start playing blackjack and I told him this.

Whenever you play, you want to use a tiered structure of win/loss. So you go in with a set amount that you can lose. It doesn't matter what it is, you ALSO need to have an amount that you can win.

When you first tell people this, the greed starts to kick in, "but if I'm winning, why would I want to stop". The answer is you wouldn't, that's where the tiered structure comes in.

Once you get to that set amount that you give yourself to win, you pocket your starting amount and only play with the winnings. You are now incapable of losing, if you're disciplined. All of this is contingent on being disciplined.

So, your streak ends, you lose your winnings, you quit, even and go home.

Your streak continues, tier time. When you hit the next rung on the tier, you pocket a set amount of winnings and play with the rest. Now, you're guaranteed winner. If you lose the play amount, you go home, winner winner chicken dinner. If you continue to win, and get to the next tier, you pocket the winnings and play with the leftovers.

Now, I suggest, the higher the tier, the less you pocket and the more you risk because a) you're already guaranteed winner and b) if your streak continues, you're winning bigger and can set the individual bets higher.

So, you're something like 51% to get to the tier where you're guaranteed to NOT be a loser. Then every tier after that is gravy.

Requires discipline and a lack of greed that most are not capable of. Casinos stay in business because of greed, not because of a statistical advantage. Well, in most games and situations, the statistical advantage is there also...

Jaden

There was beatable 21 games in vegas until 2005/6 then they all disappeared.

I’ve been in casinos all over the world and I haven’t seen anything beatable since 05/06.

They are all -ev games now. It’s just manipulated by the rules. Can’t double down after splitting and 6/5 on BJ is enough to make a 21 game -ev.

The casinos have locked up all loopholes

They woke up finally. Sucks

Fatboy

 

[Jaden]

There was beatable 21 games in vegas until 2005/6 then they all disappeared.

I’ve been in casinos all over the world and I haven’t seen anything beatable since 05/06.

They are all -ev games now. It’s just manipulated by the rules. Can’t double down after splitting and 6/5 on BJ is enough to make a 21 game -ev.

The casinos have locked up all loopholes

They woke up finally. Sucks

Fatboy

Yeah, I haven't played bj in years. Poker, yes, but that's because I read people and act better than most...

Jaden
^^^^ excellent in person player, average online player.

p.s. but using the tiered structure to gambling is just good in general for any type of gambling, it helps to overcome the greed factor.

 

[Fatboy]

MMM yeah... no. First off, for counting cards, you WANT to have a higher deck shoe. The automatic shufflers have been instituted earlier into the shoe which is what eliminates the advantage of higher + counts because you have less time once you establish a higher + count to take advantage of the count.

Secondly, the house has ~.5% disadvantage over the player in the long run. It's (being the house's) advantage is that they have unlimited resources and no greed. Maybe I didn't quite explain it. Anyways, there are plenty of disciplined professional black jack players that make a great living at it, but almost to a man, they use a tiered approach like I described to overcome the greed factor. Also, over many sessions, the overcome the limited resources factor.

That's a casino's BIGGEST advantage, unlimited resources related to the player. Player's run out of money and they have a tendency to either quit down, or busted rather than ahead. That's the casino's advantage in blackjack, not the actual play.

Jaden

Automatic shuffler between hands makes 21 a independent trails game like roulette

It’s a dependent trail game in a shoe down to single deck because of card removal.

When there’s no removal every hand has a predictable expected value.

I’ll leave it at that,

Best
Fatboy

 

[Jaden]

Automatic shuffler between hands makes 21 a independent trails game like roulette

It’s a dependent trail game in a shoe down to single deck because of card removal.

When there’s no removal every hand has a predictable expected value.

I’ll leave it at that,

Best
Fatboy

Yeah, like I said, I haven't played bj in years, I have no idea what they've instituted. If they've changed the game play rules, then that would affect the advantage, if they allow old school rules, card count doesn't even play into the advantage that I've been referring to.

Jaden

 

[Fatboy]

Yeah, like I said, I haven't played bj in years, I have no idea what they've instituted. If they've changed the game play rules, then that would affect the advantage, if they allow old school rules, card count doesn't even play into the advantage that I've been referring to.

Jaden

It’s so bad now you will see in 15 minutes your in a trap.

6/5 on 21

Double down on 10 & 11 only

No DD after the split

In single deck 2nd bet only 2X first bet(shuffle every 2nd hand with 4 or 5 players) so you never see many cards.

The list goes on……

Stone trap.

They have modified video poker pay tables and slots to hold 15% not 2% like it was 20 years ago. Why? To rob tourists faster so payroll is lower for casinos. They don’t need as big of a handle(total $ bet) to win as much. And winning faster is much more profitable.

The casino customers get robbed much faster.

Notice how casinos have smaller floors and larger gaming revenue than ever? This is why.

They took the gamble out of gambling and the new generation of people giving the casinos action don’t know better. They took a lock biz and locked it up more.

That’s what happened, I’m not guessing about this.

Best
Fatboy<——-not happy about what happened to casinos

 

[Dan White]

MMM yeah... no. First off, for counting cards, you WANT to have a higher deck shoe. The automatic shufflers have been instituted earlier into the shoe which is what eliminates the advantage of higher + counts because you have less time once you establish a higher + count to take advantage of the count

MMM yeah... no? How about MMM you don't know what you are talking about? You WANT a high deck shoe for counting? lol. You give me a full two deck game and I'll come home with the chandeliers. Give me an auto shuffle or high deck shoe and I'll go home with my pockets turned inside out. It's always been that way, since counting was invented in the 50's or 60's, depending on who you talk to.

Secondly, the house has ~.5% disadvantage over the player in the long run.

Source? Impossible.

It's (being the house's) advantage is that they have unlimited resources and no greed.

The house's advantage is that they never pay the true odds on any bet. If you win a 10 to 1 proposition they only pay you 9:1 and so on. The only bet I know of where they pay the true odds is laying odds on the pass line in craps. But, to lay odds you have to have a pass line bet in the first place, which doesn't pay out what it should.

Maybe I didn't quite explain it. Anyways, there are plenty of disciplined professional black jack players that make a great living at it, but almost to a man, they use a tiered approach like I described to overcome the greed factor. Also, over many sessions, they overcome the limited resources factor because of the tiered structure.

That's a casino's BIGGEST advantage, unlimited resources related to the player. Player's run out of money and they have a tendency to either quit down, or busted rather than ahead. That's the casino's advantage in blackjack, not the actual play.

Jaden

I got out of the whole betting thing many years ago, but the only thing you say that makes any sense to me is the idea that the casino has big pockets. That is not their weapon. Their weapon is that they don't pay out the correct amount on any one bet. It gives them a small advantage. Their edge is in the large number of people playing throughout the day, not the fact that the players are drunk idiots, which many of them are.

Gather up 1000 Einsteins and watch them go broke in a casino. Gather up 1000 Fatboys and I can't predict what will happen.

 

[Dan White]

Yeah, like I said, I haven't played bj in years, I have no idea what they've instituted. If they've changed the game play rules, then that would affect the advantage, if they allow old school rules, card count doesn't even play into the advantage that I've been referring to.

Jaden

There has never been a statistical advantage for the player in blackjack, old school or not. If I'm wrong I'll need to see proof of that.

 

[Dan White]

It’s so bad now you will see in 15 minutes your in a trap.

6/5 on 21

Double down on 10 & 11 only

No DD after the split

In single deck 2nd bet only 2X first bet(shuffle every 2nd hand with 4 or 5 players) so you never see many cards.

The list goes on……

Stone trap.

They have modified video poker pay tables and slots to hold 15% not 2% like it was 20 years ago. Why? To rob tourists faster so payroll is lower for casinos. They don’t need as big of a handle(total $ bet) to win as much. And winning faster is much more profitable.

The casino customers get robbed much faster.

Notice how casinos have smaller floors and larger gaming revenue than ever? This is why.

They took the gamble out of gambling and the new generation of people giving the casinos action don’t know better. They took a lock biz and locked it up more.

That’s what happened, I’m not guessing about this.

Best
Fatboy<——-not happy about what happened to casinos

Wow, had no idea about all of that. Casinos are pretty smart to take advantage of the dullards produced by our school system. Maybe things will swing back the other way to attract customers once we are in a recession/depression.

 

[Fatboy]

Wow, had no idea about all of that. Casinos are pretty smart to take advantage of the dullards produced by our school system. Maybe things will swing back the other way to attract customers once we are in a recession/depression.

I hope so, it’s amazing to me they get action

 

[Luxury]

This thread reminds me of John McEnroe screaming at the chair umpire, “Everyone in this entire stadium knows that ball was in but YOU!!!”

 

[Dan White]

I hope so, it’s amazing to me they get action

Years ago in my early twenties we would play low stakes poker night with guys from work once in a while -- engineers. I played one night with a group of guys I hadn't played with before and just for grins I suggested that we played blackjack when it was my time to deal but my rule was that a tie would go to the dealer. I knew that was a 10% advantage for me but I was taking some risk by being the dealer too.

I robbed them so bad I couldn't believe they kept putting their money out on the table for me to take. I got to know what it was like to be a casino.

I didn't get invited back.

 

[Fatboy]

Years ago in my early twenties we would play low stakes poker night with guys from work once in a while -- engineers. I played one night with a group of guys I hadn't played with before and just for grins I suggested that we played blackjack when it was my time to deal but my rule was that a tie would go to the dealer. I knew that was a 10% advantage for me but I was taking some risk by being the dealer too.

I robbed them so bad I couldn't believe they kept putting their money out on the table for me to take. I got to know what it was like to be a casino.

I didn't get invited back.

I used to run my own 21 game after hours in the back of the pool room. It was amazing they just kept playing. I delt a square game, the mistakes they made were enough for me to win every time. Occasionally I’d have a night I’d break even. Was just small $ but it added up. 1-20/hand. Mostly 5’s which in the 80’s was cool. Slow and steady wins the race.

I miss that action,

Best
Fatboy<———studied gambling his whole life, still does

 

[Dan White]

I used to run my own 21 game after hours in the back of the pool room. It was amazing they just kept playing. I delt a square game, the mistakes they made were enough for me to win every time. Occasionally I’d have a night I’d break even. Was just small $ but it added up. 1-20/hand. Mostly 5’s which in the 80’s was cool. Slow and steady wins the race.

I miss that action,

Best
Fatboy<———studied gambling his whole life, still does

You're my hero!

 

[jimmyco]

Come to Colorado to play 21.

3:2 at every casino in the state except a lone one with but three tables.
Used to be 6:5 at single deck only, but no more single deck, double deck rules.
Double down on any two cards, before or after split.
Split aces up to four hands.
Up to $5K single bet at one casino.

I don't play slots, but 85% is insane. Might as well throw your money in the fountain and make a wish.

Dice is my game. Casino Royale mid-strip had a $1 table with 100x odds. Is it still there? Quit going when they added resort fees and charge guests for parking. Eff 'em!

 

[straightline]

Yes, it’s really quite hard to believe that over 1000 PhD’s and one of the most decorated mathematicians in history were stumped on this one. That should make you feel a little better!

Now that this thread has settled, I think I'll go with my original impression which is:

Taker takes a stab at 33 percent.

Monty puts a nothing move on him - a hustle so to speak. And in a hustle the odds are off the table.

Taker is left with a coin flip.