Guy Manges
Registered
Eye sight helps... Guy ... from table to table, stick to stick and all else to conten with, 90% luck...
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Luck vs Skill Percentage - What Do You Think?
- Thread starter BarTableMan
- Start date
boogieman
It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that ping.
It depends... it might have had to be "the shot." Sometimes even a shot you can make 5% of the time is the best chance at winning a game. Hitting the ball is skill, it can go in or not and probably had to be hit in a half inch area (correct side of the ball) to make it.
A lot of 9B is managing percentages. I'll take a 5% chance shot if my cue ball is going to be 95% chance of being protected. Some of the stuff is a free roll. People hate this aspect of 9B and call it slop or luck, but it's just managing percentages.
If I can be 100% guaranteed to leave the CB safe, I'll hit balls in such a way to move and give 3 balls a chance to slop in. I just solved a cluster and maybe had a slim chance of something "slopping" in.
You can also manage slop by the way and speed you hit balls. 3 balls moving around off of a carom into a "kick and stick" on the last ball at medium speed may give 2 of the 3 balls a chance at going in. It's a game of percentages and if folks learn to love the percentages and not cuss slop there is some real intricate stuff going on a lot of the time.
Obviously if you can run the balls run them, but when you're less than ideal you have to play smart percentages.
When you make the OB in the chosen pocket after 2 rail kick more than 50% of the time, it is no longer luck.
RT Ford
Well-known member
I agree. I think anyone that studies 3 cushion billiards has a distinct advantage.
Yup that's now 50% incompetence. Billiard skills ^^^of course are the nuts but the question was luck. And the majority of billiards is still, "Nice try!"...
Pool Hand Luke
Well-known member
I have made the shot in question. I knew how to shoot a two rail kick, but when the 8 went into the side pocket it still felt "lucky" even though it happened the way I intended. One of the guys watching said "That was an incredible shot!" I told him "Sometimes you get lucky."
It was the highlight of my day.
It was the highlight of my day.
If he played the shot then it's not luck at all, it's a successful low percentage shot. Same with any other difficult shot. If my cue ball is on the end rail and I make a full table jacked up draw shot, is it luck? No, it's just a successful low percentage shot, regardless of how many tries it would take to repeat. Luck is when you benefit from an unintentional/unexpected outcome.
In football, if a losing team throws last second hail mary to the endzone and scores, it's not luck. However, if the pass accidentally hits a bird and redirects into an open player's hands, that would be luck.
RT Ford
Well-known member
What if that 'Hail Mary' throw gets tapped back up in the air by three other players before it's caught?
I don't believe in player luck in pool.
A player hits the CB in the manner to develop a desired outcome. If the initial desired outcome is not the end result but something else positive happened. The player still hit the CB in the manner to develop that outcome.
A player that only uses 'pocket weight' for shots will be inherently 'less lucky' then a banger. Is that because the banger is more lucky, or just a guy that swings so hard that other things, lets call them 'lucky' things can happen.
The day I witness a player's shot get diverted into an otherwise missed pocket by a house fly landing in it's path. Is the time I see luck in pool
A player hits the CB in the manner to develop a desired outcome. If the initial desired outcome is not the end result but something else positive happened. The player still hit the CB in the manner to develop that outcome.
A player that only uses 'pocket weight' for shots will be inherently 'less lucky' then a banger. Is that because the banger is more lucky, or just a guy that swings so hard that other things, lets call them 'lucky' things can happen.
The day I witness a player's shot get diverted into an otherwise missed pocket by a house fly landing in it's path. Is the time I see luck in pool
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Focusing on 'luck' while playing pool is not very productive, I think. I mean, I've seen many players lose a match because they were totally preoccupied with that one moment where the opponent slopped in a lucky 9 off of a kiss of some sort.
Having said that; I'd say if you can make a difficult jump-bank-kickshot 5 out of 10 times and the other 5 are near-misses, then you possess the skill. If you make it twice and the other 8 are way off and mostly jumping off the table, then the two are just luck (and you may qualify as a ballbanger).
Having said that; I'd say if you can make a difficult jump-bank-kickshot 5 out of 10 times and the other 5 are near-misses, then you possess the skill. If you make it twice and the other 8 are way off and mostly jumping off the table, then the two are just luck (and you may qualify as a ballbanger).
Asking 'cause you lost 50 the first time??
Who cares what the % is. He made it when he needed it.
Played a guy 2 races to 10 nineball last night. I kicked in 3 balls in the matches. I got good hits probably a half dozen other times. 2 of which rattled the pocket. I missed 1 kick that I was trying to thin and I got "too thin".
Afterwards I showed my opponents 2 systems I use for kicking. In 10 minutes he was 100% better at kicking.
I will tell the story again as some may not have read it.
Playing a ring game of 9 ball the usual suspects and a new guy
I am hooked on the 4 and the 5and 9 are on the spot. I looked at backcutting the 4 and having the cueball breakout out the 5/9. I kicked 4 rails and backcut the 4 and broke up the 5/9. No reaction from anybody as the new guy is looking on in disbelief. One of the regular guys deadpans " he hit it good".
Afterwards I showed my opponents 2 systems I use for kicking. In 10 minutes he was 100% better at kicking.
I will tell the story again as some may not have read it.
Playing a ring game of 9 ball the usual suspects and a new guy
I am hooked on the 4 and the 5and 9 are on the spot. I looked at backcutting the 4 and having the cueball breakout out the 5/9. I kicked 4 rails and backcut the 4 and broke up the 5/9. No reaction from anybody as the new guy is looking on in disbelief. One of the regular guys deadpans " he hit it good".
SeniorTom
Well-known member
It's strange how better players seem to have more of what appears to be luck. I'm not a believer in coincidences and luck, there is a higher power governing such things, and one of those is one's skill set. I used to play with a fellow who always complained that I was lucky because I was beating him most of the time, but I was just better than him.
WobblyStroke
Well-known member
"The more I practice, the luckier I get" has already been mentioned but it is absolutely true.
The skill is in hitting the balls in ways that good things can happen. The more you are able to do that, the more often one will drop for you. Any one pocketed kick can be viewed as 'lucky' due to this one outcome, but it is your skill that makes that outcome possible.
I think poker is a good illustrator of luck vs skill. A skilled player with a relatively big winrate will have an average variance of 95% on their cash game sessions and actually come out a winner on maybe 55% of his sessions. Every big session is luck. But it is his skill that makes him profitable over time and helps keep his losses smaller than his wins.
Efren did get lucky on that famous Z shot. But he had the skill to give himself a chance. So no, the kicked in 8b was not 'pure luck'.
The skill is in hitting the balls in ways that good things can happen. The more you are able to do that, the more often one will drop for you. Any one pocketed kick can be viewed as 'lucky' due to this one outcome, but it is your skill that makes that outcome possible.
I think poker is a good illustrator of luck vs skill. A skilled player with a relatively big winrate will have an average variance of 95% on their cash game sessions and actually come out a winner on maybe 55% of his sessions. Every big session is luck. But it is his skill that makes him profitable over time and helps keep his losses smaller than his wins.
Efren did get lucky on that famous Z shot. But he had the skill to give himself a chance. So no, the kicked in 8b was not 'pure luck'.
RT Ford
Well-known member
I once had a conversation with a lady that had been attending a philosophy class. The subject of luck came up. She told me she didn't believe in luck. I explained to her that some things happen by chance and humans the world over choose to call it luck. She told me she didn't believe in chance, so I told her that if she didn't believe in chance, her only alternative would be to believe that we're all just puppets, dancing to the whims of the puppet master. She said she didn't believe that either, so I said to her ''then you don't believe in anything".
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RT Ford
Well-known member
I once attempted a shot in a tournament. When the cue ball was a few inches from the object ball, it suddenly jumped into the air and off the table. On inspection, I saw that a small piece of plaster had fallen from the ceiling, landing on the path of the cue ball. My opponent insisted he had ball in hand. The tournament director said it was interference from an outside source and told me to remove the plaster, replace the cue ball as close as possible to it's original position, and re-shoot the shot.
So much luck involved in the game lets be honest here, especially at higher level!!! in fact the luck in higher level pool is far greater than you're average bangers when they play... I had this discussion with a friend and he laughed so hard thinking that the higher level of player meaning lower luck but its quite the opposite.
When two high level players are playing it depends so much on so many factors which will in the end ddetermine the winner because both of these players capable of running packs. Let me tell you how much luck there is when both are a high-end tier players.
1. The break, the most luckiest shot in the world and pls don't start with "practicing the break" each TABLE breaks differently, plus each day its break will change depending on weather, heat, other factors...... The break itself will determine big % of who wins the match.
2. Layout, sometimes a guy gets so much lucky where all his layouts a "KOZMO" layouts && at the same time the opponent will be getting the trickest layout ever imagined, this alone will give a big luck advantage for the first player allowing him to win the match, plus if you get this you'll get in dead stroke to be unstoppable.
3. The leaves, biggest luck esecially for high end tier player.......sometimes at very rare occasion these high end players will miss a shot, they didn't play safe so they literally just missed, the big luck question is "WHAT HAPPENED NEXT???" DID HE LEAVE THE OPPONENT GOOD? you can see this question will at the end of the match cause one player to win and the other loses even if this only happens 2 or 3 times because these high end players 2-3 games is alot, especially if he continues his luck and get kozmo layout next to run a rack or two.....ok let me elaborate on this, if player "A" misses, alot of the times I saw on tv/youtube that it didn't cost him at all, he literally came out the next inning smelling like roses even though he missed a big big shot because he got lucky and put his opponent on a shot that he cannot refuse yet very difficult. Another story is if a player misses a shot, he will leave straight in easy shot for player B to runout, both ways you'll call it luck for either player A, or player B. -- Because nobody controls the leave, I always am a big fan of "If a player misses a shot, just give the next player ball in hand".
When two high level players are playing it depends so much on so many factors which will in the end ddetermine the winner because both of these players capable of running packs. Let me tell you how much luck there is when both are a high-end tier players.
1. The break, the most luckiest shot in the world and pls don't start with "practicing the break" each TABLE breaks differently, plus each day its break will change depending on weather, heat, other factors...... The break itself will determine big % of who wins the match.
2. Layout, sometimes a guy gets so much lucky where all his layouts a "KOZMO" layouts && at the same time the opponent will be getting the trickest layout ever imagined, this alone will give a big luck advantage for the first player allowing him to win the match, plus if you get this you'll get in dead stroke to be unstoppable.
3. The leaves, biggest luck esecially for high end tier player.......sometimes at very rare occasion these high end players will miss a shot, they didn't play safe so they literally just missed, the big luck question is "WHAT HAPPENED NEXT???" DID HE LEAVE THE OPPONENT GOOD? you can see this question will at the end of the match cause one player to win and the other loses even if this only happens 2 or 3 times because these high end players 2-3 games is alot, especially if he continues his luck and get kozmo layout next to run a rack or two.....ok let me elaborate on this, if player "A" misses, alot of the times I saw on tv/youtube that it didn't cost him at all, he literally came out the next inning smelling like roses even though he missed a big big shot because he got lucky and put his opponent on a shot that he cannot refuse yet very difficult. Another story is if a player misses a shot, he will leave straight in easy shot for player B to runout, both ways you'll call it luck for either player A, or player B. -- Because nobody controls the leave, I always am a big fan of "If a player misses a shot, just give the next player ball in hand".
Flakeandrun
Well-known member
Do all the right things, have all the right skills, then you end up more likely to have all the right 'luck' go your way.