Mailers as History, Cues as Investments

TATE

TATE

AzB Gold Mensch
Silver Member
I've scanned in over a dozen mailers on my site now, most from the 1992 - 1994 boom era in cue collecting. We thought the prices were high then, but were they?

These mailers are a lot of fun for collectors to look at. It is interesting to see what's hot and what's not. To put it into stock market investment terms, it is clear to me that there are "Blue Chip stocks" in cue collections, there are "Growth stocks" and there are "Duds".

Is cue collecting a hobby or an investment? While I collect mainly as a hobby, I am not afraid to buy cues that I view as good investments in the next 20 years. A portfolio manager might recommend 5% of your holdings to be in collectibles. Typically these might be coins, antiques, or even automobiles. Looking at these mailers, some cues were excellent collectible investments.

Looking these mailers over, do you see the best investments and the worst?

What are your ideas on where we will be 10 to 20 years from now?

http://www.palmercollector.com/BlastfromthePastHome.html

Happy New Year!

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Chris
 
TATE said:
Looking these mailers over, do you see the best investments and the worst?

What are your ideas on where we will be 10 to 20 years from now?



Happy New Year!

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Chris
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If I was predictable of predicting the future, I would be wish, and wealthy. Instead I am not will off, and dumb.:eek:
 
TATE said:
...What are your ideas on where we will be 10 to 20 years from now?
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Chris, IMO we are at an interesting crossroads with collectible cues. From looking through old mailers, I'm sure that in general most collectors will agree that they kick themselves in the teeth more for not buying certain cues than buying others.

What I mean by 'crossroads' now is that it seems the supply of cues, new cuemakers on the scene, much more imports from the Phillipines, China, etc. has exploded well beyond the community of US cue buyers. As such, I think that 'select cues' will always have a very high demand (Szambotis, Bushka, Kersenbrock, etc.) and a very limited number of 'select cuemakers' will continue to see high demand for their work. But I belive many here in the US will ultimately see a sharp decline. There will continue to be a lot of custom cuemakers, but I think the glory days have past where somebody can jump onto the scene, build a great cue, and be able to make a living and support a family. There is just too much out there now.

Sean
 
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cueaddicts said:
Chris, IMO we are at an interesting crossroads with collectible cues. From looking through old mailers, I'm sure that in general most collectors will agree that they kick themselves in the teeth more for not buyer certain cues than buying others.

What I mean by 'crossroads' now is that it seems the supply of cues, new cuemakers on the scene, much more imports from the Phillipines, China, etc. has exploded well beyond the community of US cue buyers. As such, I think that 'select cues' will always have a very high demand (Szambotis, Bushka, Kersenbrock, etc.) and a very limited number of 'select cuemakers' will continue to see high demand for their work. But I belive many here in the US will ultimately see a sharp decline. There will continue to be a lot of custom cuemakers, but I think the glory days have past where somebody can jump onto the scene, build a great cue, and be able to make a living and support a family. There is just too much out there now.

Sean
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I agree.

But, how would you say these mailers cues did as investments? Good, bad, average?

Now, mind you, I don't particularly view cues from an investment standpoint, but if I did, how did they do? Say an 11 year return and you bought a few cues from each maker, how would you have done?

Chris
 
TATE said:
I agree.

But, how would you say these mailers cues did as investments? Good, bad, average?

Now, mind you, I don't particularly view cues from an investment standpoint, but if I did, how did they do? Say an 11 year return and you bought a few cues from each maker, how would you have done?

Chris
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Some great, some good, some bad, some terrible. We can probably tell the examples. Overall, I would say average.

If a buyer or collector specialized in buying Szams 10-12 years ago and sold them all in the last few years, then he would have made a windfall, but that is the exception instead of the norm when you are talking the lot of cue collectors/buyers. And if a guy specialized in buying say, Cokers, then he would be hurting nowadays, huh. :mad:

It's hard for me to compare stocks to cues....I approach cues as a hobby myself but am always mindful of them as investments. You might lose on some and win on some, but it all means nothing if you don't enjoy them.
 
cueaddicts said:
Some great, some good, some bad, some terrible. We can probably tell the examples. Overall, I would say average.

If a buyer or collector specialized in buying Szams 10-12 years ago and sold them all in the last few years, then he would have made a windfall, but that is the exception instead of the norm when you are talking the lot of cue collectors/buyers. And if a guy specialized in buying say, Cokers, then he would be hurting nowadays, huh. :mad:

It's hard for me to compare stocks to cues....I approach cues as a hobby myself but am always mindful of them as investments. You might lose on some and win on some, but it all means nothing if you don't enjoy them.
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When it comes to collectibles, my first thought would not be "return on investment" my thought would be "return OF investment", after all, we are buying something we can use, display, and enjoy. This is not unlike owning a classic car or musical instrument.

I am doing a spreadsheet on it. My initial results are quite surprising.

Let's just say you randomly bought a sampling of 50 of these cues in 1994. What do you think your return would have been?

Chris
 
TATE said:
When it comes to collectibles, my first thought would not be "return on investment" my thought would be "return OF investment", after all, we are buying something we can use, display, and enjoy. This is not unlike owning a classic car or musical instrument.

I am doing a spreadsheet on it. My initial results are quite surprising.

Let's just say you randomly bought a sampling of 50 of these cues in 1994. What do you think your return would have been?

Chris
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you gonna post the spreadsheet?
i agree that collectibles are done more for enjoyment than a return on investment. that would just be gravy on top if it happens. :cool:
there are always going to be much safer investments than luxury or non-essential items that would depend on a thriving economy for a good return.
also to reap our return we have to give up our prize :(
 
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iconcue said:
you gonna post the spreadsheet?
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Yes, a little later when I'm finished. I would like to get others inputs too on value to make it as accurate as possible. I am trying to estimate current fair market values on the cues I know, but I will need additional input.

I am comparing a variety of cues from different makers to get the largest sample possible.

Chris
 
TATE said:
When it comes to collectibles, my first thought would not be "return on investment" my thought would be "return OF investment", after all, we are buying something we can use, display, and enjoy. This is not unlike owning a classic car or musical instrument.

I am doing a spreadsheet on it. My initial results are quite surprising.

Let's just say you randomly bought a sampling of 50 of these cues in 1994. What do you think your return would have been?

Chris
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I'm sure the results will be fascinating. I'd guess about 7% APR. Can't wait to see....
 
cueaddicts said:
I'm sure the results will be fascinating. I'd guess about 7% APR. Can't wait to see....
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Pretty darn good guess, Sean. Here's what I came up with. I need the experts here to check my guesstimates.

There's more to cue collecting than meets the eye!

I'm not sure if this is going to work but i embedded a spreasheet here. Please let me know if you can pull it up and I hope it can't be changed:

http://www.palmercollector.com/Cue_Appreciation.xls
 
i can pull it up and save it or open it, either way. i can also change the figures in what i save, but i don't think anyone can change your original figures. that is quite a spreadsheet, how did you figure the current prices, from the blue book three?

guy
 
For those who can't pull it up, the average cue appreciated 98% between the time the mailers were published and current value. This represented an average increase of 8% annually.

The initial investment in cues of $69,795 yielded a present day value of $132,170, outperforming inflation by $45,000 and the same amount in a savings account at 2.5% (compounded) by $40,000.

The Blue Chip Cues were Balabushka's and Szamboti's, both of which outperformed other expensive cues.

Hot Growth Cues were Burton Spain's and Palmer's, typically tripling and quadrupling in value (because they were undervalued at the time).

Very respectable performers include Southwests, Tad's, Gina, Peterson, and Tascarella. Kersenbrock would have been in this group but not Omega. I didn't include kersenbrock because I am not familiar with the values.

Josswest held their own but no real gains. Old collectibles like Rambow's fared pretty well.

Disappointers were Schon, Huebler, Cognoscenti, and Joss, all well below average.

If there was one stand out point I think it's this: Be careful whose name is on a super expensive cue. I am sure some of the "non legends" took it in the pants with their $20,000 cues.

Chris
 
guycrunch said:
i can pull it up and save it or open it, either way. i can also change the figures in what i save, but i don't think anyone can change your original figures. that is quite a spreadsheet, how did you figure the current prices, from the blue book three?

guy
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Hello Guy!

I am getting the mailers back to you next week the usual way. I still have a couple to scan and then boom, we're done.

I did values on the Blue Book, middle prices plus some I have recent experience with and guessed. I am sure I am way off on some cues - I'll let, Sean, Jeff, Joe, Cornerstone and whoever else buys and sells a lot help me with any corrections.

I would like to create a page on my site where potential collectors can view this information.

I am not advocating cues as an investment, because it's an illiquid market. The cheaper cues are easily converted to cash but expensive ones may take a while to sell. Still, it's nice to know that our hobby has a return. If nothing else we can probably get our money back at least! Try that with your boat or car!

Chris
 
TATE said:
The Blue Chip Cues were Balabushka's and Szamboti's, both of which outperformed other expensive cues.
Chris
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This is what we have been telling people for over 10 years. But people thought that we were pulling their legs because we sold them. Other newbie collectors constantly got taken by dealers that did not have Bushkas and Botis, and had to pawn off other cues on unsuspecting collectors. I cannot even believe those prices only a scant 10-12 years ago. Of course that model 19 Palmer at 450 was a little low. :)

I also don't agree with a Rambow at 3000 today. Its just not happening, and we have recent data to prove otherwise, and none siding to the high side. Thats aside its very interesting, and IMHO Kersenbrocks would prove to be another blue chipper. The number 4 in the first mailer would be 6k+, the number 6 SW would sell for 10k, because it is a Franklin era cue. The SW #18 with ivory in the Wright mailer would be another monster. The Bushka in 92 Healthware # 18 would be 15k or more. Mainly because we have come to understand the rarity of white collared Bushkas, as well as other things in this cue.

I think the biggest change.. is there was NO BLUE BOOK at the time of these pics. Its also an interesting side note.

Joe
 
classiccues said:
This is what we have been telling people for over 10 years. But people thought that we were pulling their legs because we sold them. Other newbie collectors constantly got taken by dealers that did not have Bushkas and Botis, and had to pawn off other cues on unsuspecting collectors. I cannot even believe those prices only a scant 10-12 years ago. Of course that model 19 Palmer at 450 was a little low. :)

I also don't agree with a Rambow at 3000 today. Its just not happening, and we have recent data to prove otherwise, and none siding to the high side. Thats aside its very interesting, and IMHO Kersenbrocks would prove to be another blue chipper. The number 4 in the first mailer would be 6k+, the number 6 SW would sell for 10k, because it is a Franklin era cue. The SW #18 with ivory in the Wright mailer would be another monster. The Bushka in 92 Healthware # 18 would be 15k or more. Mainly because we have come to understand the rarity of white collared Bushkas, as well as other things in this cue.

I think the biggest change.. is there was NO BLUE BOOK at the time of these pics. Its also an interesting side note.

Joe
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Joe,

I'll use some of your estimates to make adjustments. Another thing is I intentionally went a little low on the big priced cues just be safe, plus I didn't want to zero in and focus only on the big winners - I just was trying to get an overall average sampling.

The Rambow I went a little higher on (my usual would be $2,500 for this type) because it was all original, pristine, had an ivory butt cap, and it had "made by Rambow" plus the owners name on it. I also believe it was a one owner cue. Now, that would be a hard Rambow to come by! If I could find a cue just like that one, for sure I would pay up for it.

Chris
 
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TATE said:
I've scanned in over a dozen m,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Looking these mailers over, do you see the best investments and the worst?


Chris
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blast #4,,,,cue #23 looks like a good investment to me.....wadda ya think, icon?:):):)

i buy to collect, not to sell,,,btw
 
bruin70 said:
blast #4,,,,cue #23 looks like a good investment to me.....wadda ya think, icon?:):):)

i buy to collect, not to sell,,,btw
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hey joe!!!! i'll send ya the cash fedex on the #23 peterson
 
chris chickened out on the gus six :eek:
you sure did switch them around a lot!

is it a deal joe???
 
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